In 2021, the financing policy of the real estate industry continued to tighten, and the total financing of typical real estate enterprises decreased by 26% year-on-year, showing negative growth for the first time in recent five years and reaching the lowest level in five years.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the financing of real estate enterprises fell to the freezing point, the total financing decreased by 55% year-on-year, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises increased, and default events occurred frequently. Last year, the balance of defaulted bonds in the real estate industry reached 73.5 billion yuan, the highest over the years.
Industry insiders believe that in 2021, with limited financing and downward sales, real estate enterprises are generally facing the dilemma of tight liquidity. In the future, under the tone of “promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”, the financing environment of real estate enterprises is expected to be further improved, especially the partial adjustment of the implementation rules of the three red lines, which will drive the financing scale of real estate enterprises to continue to recover. However, in the short term, the financing of real estate enterprises will still operate at a low level, and the overall debt repayment pressure of enterprises is still large. In the future, real estate enterprises will rely more on sales collection and self raised funds.
the financing volume decreased by 55% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year
According to the incomplete statistics of Kerui Research Center, the financing volume of 100 typical real estate enterprises in 2021 was 1287.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26%. The financing volume showed negative growth for the first time in recent five years and reached the lowest point in five years.
According to the analysis of Kerui Research Center, quarterly, due to the sufficient quota of various institutions at the beginning of the year and the policy setting has not changed significantly compared with the end of 2020, combined with the large debt repayment demand of real estate enterprises at the beginning of the year, the financing volume of real estate enterprises only decreased slightly in the first quarter, reaching more than 400 billion yuan; Since the second quarter, relevant departments have increased the supervision of operating loan and channel businesses, tightened the financing environment of real estate enterprises, and the financing volume in the second quarter decreased by 16% year-on-year, less than 400 billion yuan; It is worth noting that due to the frequent occurrence of corporate defaults since the second half of last year, the financing of real estate enterprises further fell to 307.9 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 32%; By the fourth quarter, the financing of real estate enterprises had once dropped to the freezing point, and the financing volume was only 176.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55%.
financing cost decreased by nearly 1 percentage point
From the perspective of corporate bond financing cost, according to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, the new bond financing cost in 2021 was 5.32%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2020, of which the overseas bond financing cost was 6.88%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2020, and the domestic bond financing cost was 4.06%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2020.
For the reasons for the decline in financing costs, Kerui Research Center believes that the main reason is that the bond issuance of real estate enterprises continued to differentiate during the year. On the one hand, the domestic bond issuance / overseas bond issuance during the year was 1.41, 0.26 more than that in 2020, while the general domestic bond issuance cost of enterprises is much lower than that abroad; In addition, due to the tightening of the financing environment, corporate bond issuance continued to differentiate, and bond issuance focused on excellent real estate enterprises, further reducing the cost of corporate bond issuance.
In terms of financing structure, domestic debt financing still accounts for the highest proportion in 2021, accounting for 49%. In terms of financing volume, the domestic debt financing of real estate enterprises decreased by 30% year-on-year to 635.1 billion yuan in 2021; The amount of overseas debt financing was 340.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%; Equity financing and perpetual bonds raised 11.2 billion yuan and 5.8 billion yuan respectively, with a significant decrease of 77% and 88% respectively compared with the same period last year. Kerui Research Center said that after the introduction of the three red lines, perpetual bonds have also been included in debt supervision, and the issuance of corporate perpetual bonds has continued to decline.
in the short term, the financing of real estate enterprises will still operate at a low level
In 2021, the financing environment was continuously tightened, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises was intensified, and default events occurred frequently.
According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, the number and amount of defaulted bonds in 2021 are far higher than that in the same period in 2020. From the perspective of specific defaulting real estate enterprises, the list of defaulting real estate enterprises is expanded to leading real estate enterprises, including China Evergrande, China Olympic Park, jiazhaoye, China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) , Xiexin Yuanchuang, China oceanwide, Peking University resources, sunshine 100, etc.
According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, by November 2021, there were 67 defaulted bonds in the real estate industry, with a year-on-year increase of 131%; The default balance of bonds has reached 73.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187%, and the default balance of bonds has reached the highest in previous years.
For the reasons why real estate enterprises frequently default on their debts, Kerui Research Center believes that, on the one hand, real estate enterprises generally face the dilemma of tight liquidity in 2021 under the conditions of limited financing and downward sales. Superimposed on the recent new policies on the supervision of pre-sale funds, some real estate enterprises have greatly reduced their capital allocation ability and capital use efficiency, resulting in capital tension and frequent negative credit events of some real estate enterprises.
On the other hand, real estate enterprises have not realized real leverage reduction at present. Kerui Research Center pointed out that from the financial data of 97 key monitored real estate enterprises, the three red lines of sample real estate enterprises in the middle of 2021 have been significantly improved, the number of green enterprises has increased by 5 to 44 compared with the end of 2020, and the proportion of other yellow, orange and red real estate enterprises has decreased to varying degrees. However, the current improvement of the three red lines of real estate enterprises is not a real improvement. Some enterprises reduce leverage by means of off balance sheet transfer, explicit shares and real debts.
Looking forward to 2022, Kerui Research Center predicts that the overall financing environment will still focus on maintaining the normal financing needs of enterprises and promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the industry. In the short term, the financing of real estate enterprises will still operate at a low level, and the overall debt repayment pressure of enterprises is still large. In the future, real estate enterprises will rely more on sales collection and self raised funds.
The shell Research Institute also believes that in the future, under the tone of “promoting a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”, the financing environment of real estate enterprises is expected to be further improved, especially the partial adjustment of the implementation rules of the three red lines, which will drive the financing scale of real estate enterprises to continue to recover.
(brokerage China)
