[market week review and northbound monitoring]
This week, the value of CITIC Baijiu dropped by 5.98%, which was 4.77% lower than that of CITIC food and beverage, which was 0.60% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index. The top 3 stocks were Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , or the last 3 stocks were Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . This week, the net capital inflow from going north was 622 million yuan. The top three stocks with net capital inflow were Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , and the bottom three stocks with capital inflow were Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) .
[investment perspective]
We have Baijiu Baijiu for seven weeks. We are still pushing the high-end liquor sector. We will continue to welcome the high-end Baijiu, and we will continue to welcome the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . We propose that the liquor business has strong barriers in the Baijiu plate and high-end Baijiu, and the business model has the superiority. The performance stability in 2022 is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price increase and higher performance. We think that the high-end Baijiu has been shifting at present, and the following will be mainly based on stable operation, so as to improve the quality of its own business. In terms of the price increase, the core logic of the high-end sector is the price increase. We believe that the ability of high-end liquor companies to raise prices has been there all the time. But enterprises steadily increase their prices according to their own development rhythm, which is the way to long-term development. The excessive price increase in the short term or the overall operation quality of enterprises will be affected. Therefore, it is suggested to build high-end Baijiu with a long vision. It is a long-term promising high-quality core asset. High-end Baijiu will continue to push hard and steady Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
This week, the secondary high-end fell as a whole, of which Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) performed better. We believe that the short-term sub high-end rise is mainly based on the market’s expectation of goods preparation for the Spring Festival and a good start in Q1 this year.
We believe that sub high-end liquor is to promote the process of nationalization and high-end through channel expansion, so as to drive performance growth. With the high-end price increase opening up market space for the secondary high-end, some secondary high-end liquor enterprises continue to expand channels, control goods to prepare for the price increase, and the price increase logic continues to be fulfilled.
We maintain a neutral and cautious attitude towards the sub high-end sector as a whole. We suggest paying attention to Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) for companies that believe that investment opportunities are nationalized, high-end and stable performance growth.
[recommended subject matter]
Suggestions: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304)
Risk warning: the price of terminal products is disorder, the backlog of channel inventory is too heavy, the actual sales are not as good as expected, the brand operation is not enough, and the price of liquor can not be raised smoothly, and the epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the normal consumption of Baijiu.
（ Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) ）
