Core view
Among the main A-share indexes last month, the Shanghai stock index, China Securities 1000 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 all rose slightly, the gem index fell sharply, and the ranking performance of machinery, electrical equipment, semiconductor and other industries was poor.
From the perspective of fundamentals, 2022 should focus on the following three investment opportunities. Under the trend of digitization and intelligence, we should focus on the new infrastructure direction and focus on the investment opportunities of 5g, pan semiconductor and intelligent application industry chain; Under the green trend of double carbon background, we should focus on the investment opportunities of low-carbon new energy and energy storage, energy conservation and emission reduction industrial chain. Under the trend of internal circulation construction and manufacturing industry chain reconstruction, we should focus on investment opportunities for the localization of aerospace and key and high-end general electromechanical equipment and parts industry chain.
We believe that in the first quarter of 2022:
The pressure on China's economic growth has increased. The high export base in 2021 and the debt problem of China's real estate industry make it more pressure to maintain a certain economic growth, which makes maintaining growth become the top priority of the government's work and the key investment point of A-Shares in the first quarter.
From the fundamental logic, 1. Pay attention to the advanced manufacturing direction determined by the good trend of the space competition, and focus on the new infrastructure sub plate with the most determined policy direction; 2。 We should still focus on low-carbon new energy and investment opportunities in the energy storage, energy conservation and emission reduction industrial chain. 3。 The world trade situation continues to deteriorate, and localization substitution is the most controllable and definite field and trend. Continue to allocate the core assets of national competitiveness, enterprises with independent high-end machining capacity, select those with card position advantages to realize the import substitution of key parts, or pay attention to those basic parts enterprises with growth certainty from bottom to top. 3。 Specifically, we will continue to pay attention to new energy power generation and batteries (hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, lithium battery, wind power, photovoltaic), military equipment (aerospace equipment, Beidou navigation, Satellite Internet of things, civil aircraft) Digital economy new infrastructure (5g, Internet of things, integrated circuit, third generation semiconductor) and other sub sectors, as well as the corresponding import substitution of basic parts enterprises with independent core machining capacity.
We believe that January 2022:
January is the first month of the first quarter and the first month of 2022. Last month, the media, electric power, building materials and other sectors made a strong upward attack, while electrical equipment, automobile, nonferrous metals and semiconductors made up for the decline. Short term capital behavior does not change the medium-term trend. Investors should choose appropriate strategies and investment cycles according to the nature of funds. The introduction of policies related to the dual carbon strategy and the empty window period before the annual report and the first quarterly report have made the rapid rotation speculation of individual stocks become the mainstream behavior of market funds. The rotation of hot spots in the plate is too fast, the sustainability of hot spots is relatively poor, and the phenomenon of high-level plates falling one after another. We believe that in January 2022, keeping up with the policy and focusing on liquidity is still the main choice for the market. The expectation of new improvement of liquidity and relaxation of real estate policy continues, and the market risk appetite is expected to be maintained. The market will still focus on the double carbon goal and green strategy, pay attention to the pre increase of investment opportunities in the annual report and the first quarter report, and there is great pressure for the new energy, semiconductor and military industry sectors to make up for losses in the short term, However, the logic of the industry outlook and future space is still being strengthened, and the adjustment will be a good time to optimize the layout. Select the core stocks with high performance growth that can digest the high valuation in 21 years, and the investment opportunities of individual stocks will be significantly differentiated in 22 years.
For fundamental investment, we still suggest to select specialized special new sub industries with better than expected performance in 21 years and continuous prosperity in 22 years for allocation over the medium term. Focus on allocating oversold stocks with good fundamentals, and pay attention to sectors with strong certainty and reasonable valuation.
Advanced manufacturing related targets include: Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Nuclear Technology Development Co.Ltd(000881) ; The targets related to the new infrastructure of digital economy include: Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Sichuan Haite High-Tech Co.Ltd(002023) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , Huizhou Speed Wireless Technology Co.Ltd(300322) , Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Sanchuan Wisdom Technology Co.Ltd(300066) , Suntront Technolocy Co.Ltd(300259) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) , Shennan Circuits Co.Ltd(002916) , Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Shanghai Weaver Network Co.Ltd(603039) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Digiwin Software Co.Ltd(300378) , etc; The related targets of domestic alternative basic parts include: Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials Co.Ltd(300260) , Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) , Shanghai Hugong Electric Group Co.Ltd(603131) , Sinoseal Holding Co.Ltd(300470) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) , Sichuan Crun Co.Ltd(002272) , Zhonghang Electronic Measuring Instruments Co.Ltd(300114) , Chengdu Shenleng Liquefaction Plant Co.Ltd(300540) , Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) , etc.
Market performance last month
From December 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021, the Shanghai stock index rose by 2.13%, the CSI 300 rose by 2.24%, the gem composite fell by 3.61%, and the CSI 1000 fell by 0.55%. The top three industries with positive yield in December were media III index, power III index and building materials III index. The industries with the last three increases were life science tools and services III index, electrical equipment index and automobile index.
The wind machinery index rose 0.11%, ranking 45 / 62 in the month of industry growth, and the sector outperformed the Shanghai stock index by 2.02 percentage points. The wind power equipment index fell 9.45%, ranking 61 / 62 in the industry growth month, and the sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.58 percentage points. The wind information technology service index rose 1.40%, ranking 42 / 62 in the month of industry growth, and the sector outperformed the Shanghai stock index by 0.73 percentage points. Wind semiconductor products fell 2.70% in the semiconductor equipment index, ranking 56 / 62 in the industry growth month, and the sector lost 4.83 percentage points to the Shanghai stock index.
From December 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021, the top five stocks in the wind machinery sector were Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , Zhejiang Canaan Technology Limited(300412) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) and Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , with increases of + 113.97%, + 83.64%, + 48.97%, + 48.08% and + 44.62% respectively.
The top five stocks with declines were Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology Co.Ltd(301022) , Foshan Golden Milky Way Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300619) , Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(002667) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) and Kangping Technology (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(300907) , with declines of - 33.68%, - 30.89%, - 28.56%, - 27.01% and - 24.16% respectively.
Important developments of the company covered last month
1。 Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) (002931): Announcement on orderly and temporary shutdown of the company and some of its subsidiaries affected by the epidemic of New Coronavirus pneumonia
2。 Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) (002245): Announcement on the reply to the feedback on the notice of the CSRC on one-time feedback on the examination of administrative licensing projects
Risk warning: industrial policy is lower than expected, market style preference, technology, competition and policy route risk.
(Chuancai securities)
