Market trend:
Today, the index bottomed out in early trading and recovered slightly in the afternoon. The Shanghai index was once close to turning red. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.21%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.65% and the record index fell 1.1%. Individual stocks rose more or fell less, more than 2900 stocks rose, 1500 stocks fell, the whole day turnover of the two cities exceeded trillion, and the net outflow of funds to the North exceeded 5 billion. Today, from the perspective of the combination of capacity and form, the market shows signs of stabilizing, and the rebound is highly estimated to be in doubt. From the perspective of safety, undervaluation is the first choice; From the perspective of theme stocks, the theme of the Winter Olympic Games is not expected to be completed.
Hot plate analysis:
In terms of sectors, we will focus on tracking two sectors today: first, with the Winter Olympics approaching, the ice and snow industry superimposed on the sharp rise of local stocks in Beijing, Cofco Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(301058) , Lander Sports Development Co.Ltd(000558) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) the daily limit, Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) the share price has soared 87% in the last 11 trading days, setting an all-time high in the session. So far, more than 50 A-share companies have participated in various support services for the Winter Olympic Games, mainly involving five core links: venue construction, supporting transportation facilities, sponsorship and supply services, technical support and sales of licensed goods, as well as the hot stock rises and stops in recent days. The iceberg project of Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co.Ltd(000530) subsidiary of 6 days and 6 boards won the bid for the sled track simulation test section of the Winter Olympic Games; Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) projects related to Beijing Winter Olympic Games venues such as snowmobile track, Avenue speed skating hall and national snowmobile center; Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) is responsible for tackling the key problems of VR helmet technology, and the product has been applied to many test competitions of science and technology Winter Olympics. The Winter Olympics is still the main event stimulation opportunity in the near future. There are many stocks in the plate, which is expected to rotate within the plate. Second, real estate and infrastructure. In the past three trading days, the performance of the real estate sector is significantly stronger than the market, which is the charm of the dilemma reversal industry. In terms of news, the reporter recently learned from a number of banks and real estate agencies in Beijing that the lending cycle of second-hand housing loans of a number of joint-stock banks has been significantly shortened, which has been accelerated to the fastest within one month from about half a year ago. In terms of mortgage interest rate, at present, the banks in Beijing have not adjusted. The first set is still 5.2% and the second set is 5.7%. The real estate valuation is cheap and fell sharply in the early stage. At present, the low level just undertakes the funds fleeing from high-level stocks. Similar to real estate, infrastructure has low valuation and needs for stable growth. Construction listed companies have been active recently. There is still a certain fear of high market funds. Of course, high-level stocks will rebound if they fall too much, but on the whole, low-level stocks are safer.
Outlook:
After the market opened low today, there was a weak shock and the rebound was limited. In terms of trading volume, it has shrunk significantly. The United States has entered the interest rate hike cycle, which has a negative impact on a shares, at least emotionally. Some institutions believe that the transmission path from PPI to CPI is not smooth, because the total demand is declining and the profitability of enterprises is expected to weaken; In addition, the debt ratio of local governments is still high, and the willingness to reinvest is declining. From the current market response to the news, yesterday’s agricultural machinery actually only reacted for half a day, and it was easy to be covered when chasing high; News came from water conservancy today, and it is expected that the sustainability of the response is still poor. The current trend is more sustainable is the Winter Olympic concept stocks, which are expected to be active again and again in the future. Of course, it is not pessimistic to fall too much. There is still support from the semi annual line and annual line below the Shanghai index; The early low of gem index has not completely fallen below; Under the condition of proper position control, the opportunity of low absorption on the left side can be considered.
(Qian Kun investment)
