At the beginning of the new year, the macroeconomic and market trend forecast for 2022 released by the agency also arrived as scheduled. At present, six major securities companies Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) have released the top ten forecasts for 2022.
Looking back on 2021, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) launched the top ten forecasts with a hit rate of 90%, which also aroused the market's attention to the top ten conjectures of securities companies in 2022.
increasing upward forces driving the economy
Under the background that the central economic work conference calls for stability in 2022, progress in stability and appropriate policy development, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) predicts that under the package of stable growth policies, China's supply and demand adaptation is expected to further improve in 2022, and the economy is expected to return to the potential growth level and achieve a growth rate of about 5.5%. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to rise, hedging the drag caused by the low growth rate of real estate investment; In the second half of the year, consumption will return to the level close to that before the epidemic, becoming an important driving force for economic growth; The high-tech manufacturing industry is expected to maintain a high boom throughout the year.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) it is predicted that in 2022, the upward driving force of the economy will increase, the economic growth will pick up, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP is expected to reach about 5.9%, and the quarterly rhythm will be higher than before. In the context of the increasing importance of the goal of steady growth, the policies of real estate regulation and pressure reduction of local government debt may be alleviated. This year, the policy of "infrastructure before real estate" will be limited and relaxed in turn, and the space of monetary environment will be gradually opened.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) also said that under the downward pressure of economic growth, the "steady growth" at the policy side has been in force, and the market has entered the window of "wide currency" and marginal "wide credit". Positive signals such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction continue to appear, and the market expectation of policy relaxation will continue to rise. The relaxed credit margin environment usually leads to the repair and rise of heavyweight sectors such as finance and real estate, which is often accompanied by the rise of index level.
From the perspective of style direction, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) predicts that growth outperforms the value. The performance of the partial growth sector in China's "stable growth" stage may be restrained. When the growth expectation is stable, the market style may turn to the partial growth style. Throughout the year, in the environment of low interest rate and weak overall growth, the growth style of sustainable growth may be the focus of obtaining excess returns; Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the A-share market is expected to have more opportunities in the first half of the year and relatively flat in the second half of the year. In terms of style, blue chip is the main investment line throughout the year. Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) also predicted that the Fed's interest rate hike will bring style switching, and blue chips will dominate again. This switching process will be completed during this year's "spring agitation".
consensus on reducing reserve requirements and interest rates
In terms of the prediction of RRR and interest rate reduction, securities companies have reached a "consensus" that RRR and interest rate reduction are more likely.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the policy is made and the currency is the first. It is expected that the interest rate will be reduced at least once in the first half of 2022, and the MLF and LPR interest rates will be reduced at the same time. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) also predicted that with the further improvement of China's demand for steady growth, policy interest rates such as MLF and reverse repurchase interest rate are expected to be slightly reduced after the beginning of 2022.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) predicts that there is still the possibility of further RRR and even interest rate reduction in 2022, and the monetary easing cycle is not over. The appropriate time for China to cut interest rates will be in the first quarter of this year. There is a high probability of operation after the Spring Festival holiday.
However, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that in 2022, monetary policy is more likely to seize the window period of "before the Fed increases interest rates + low inflation pressure" to implement the task of stabilizing growth, so as to drive the gradual broadening of aggregate policy and may continue to trigger RRR reduction. In terms of interest rate reduction, it plays a stronger role, but it needs to be triggered by factors such as the window period opened by the fall of inflation, excessive pessimism of economic expectations, credit contraction of financial institutions, concentration of real estate risk and so on.
At the same time, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) predicts that wide credit will be an important feature in 2022. Both Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) predict that the growth rate of social finance will stabilize and recover this year, which is expected to reach 11%, and the credit environment is wide. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) it is predicted that the steady growth is stronger than expected, and the growth rate of new social finance rebounded sharply in the second half of the year. The undervalued value of new energy, infrastructure, real estate, building materials, securities companies and banks benefiting from loose liquidity and steady growth may become the final winner of the whole year, and the overall market value style of the whole year is relatively dominant.
In terms of incremental funds, in recent years, driven by policies such as "housing, housing and non speculation", residents' wealth accumulation and allocation structure have changed, gradually inclined to financial assets. Brokers predict that public funds and other institutions have become an important channel for residents to allocate a shares. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) predicts that the new shares of public funds may still exceed 3 trillion in 2022; China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) it is estimated that the annual fund issuance in 2022 is still expected to exceed 2 trillion.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) predicted hit rate 90%
The prediction hit rate tests the research strength of the organization to a certain extent. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) and China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) are full of confidence in the annual forecast. They not only guessed the trend direction in 2022, but also directly gave the forecast "report card" in 2021. However, both securities companies failed to predict the trend of Hong Kong stocks.
The hit rate of the top ten forecasts of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) in 2021 is 90%, and only the prediction of the trend of Hong Kong stocks has not been fulfilled. At the beginning of 2021, many securities companies became a "consensus" to see more Hong Kong stocks, and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) is no exception. It predicted that "the Hong Kong stock market will be a non systematic index bull market in 2021, focusing on structural opportunities". The actual situation is that in 2021, the Hong Kong stock market experienced ups and downs. The highest point of the Hang Seng Index reached 31183.36 and the lowest point was 22665.25. The Hang Seng Index fell 14.08% in the whole year, the weakest performance among the world's major stock indexes.
In this regard, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also explained that due to the lack of judgment on factors such as Internet antitrust and China concept stock supervision, although the judgment on Hong Kong stocks may be relatively conservative than the market at the beginning of last year, the performance of Hong Kong stocks is still lower than expected, which is the deficiency in the top ten forecasts in 2021.
The hit rate of the top ten forecasts of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) 2021 was 60%, which also failed in the prediction of Hong Kong stocks. It predicted that Hong Kong stocks were stronger than A-Shares as a whole in 2021, and the annual increase of Hang Seng index exceeded that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
(Securities Daily)
