How difficult is it to maintain long-term performance stability?
None of the fund managers selected into the top 10 equity fund list in 2021 coincides with the fund managers selected into the top 10 equity fund list in 2020.
In fact, after inquiring about the ranking of equity funds in recent three years, the reporter found that no fund manager could be listed twice in the last three years. It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve long-term and stable investment performance.
If the time dimension is extended to a longer five-year dimension, it is found that only the long-term performance of top flow fund managers such as Zhou Yingbo of China Europe Fund, Mao Wei of China Southern Fund and Xie Zhiyu of Xingquan fund “can still play”.
“public offering champion” spell
According to the statistics of choice, the average rate of return of the top ten active equity fund managers in 2021 was 81.38%.
Among them, Qianhai Kaiyuan Cui Chenlong ranked first with 109.36%, and GF Tang Xiaobin ranked second with 89.03%. In addition, the performance of Dacheng Fund Hanchuang, Huaxia Fund Zhong Shuai and bocom Schroeder Yang Jinjin in 2021 also exceeded 80%.
Heavy position and high view industry is the main reason for the outstanding performance of some of the above fund managers. According to the third quarterly report, the largest heavy position plate of Qianhai open source utility stock fund under Cui Chenlong is the power equipment and new energy plate, accounting for 42.44% of the net value of the fund. Heavyweight stocks include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , China Resources Power, Byd Company Limited(002594) shares, Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , China power, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) power, CGN new energy, Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) and Xintian green energy.
In addition, Tang Xiaobin’s heavy positions in nonferrous metals and coal, Han Chuang’s heavy positions in chemical industry, and Zhong Shuai’s heavy positions in high prosperity sectors such as electronics, new energy and chemical industry are also important reasons for the good performance of the above fund managers.
It can be seen from the list that the top ten fund managers in 2021 are “new faces” compared with the previous year.
Moreover, the tenure of fund managers on the list is generally short. Cui Chenlong, the performance champion in 2021, served as a fund manager on October 27, 2020. Zhong Shuai, Li Yan and Yang Jinjin of Huaxia Fund, Schroeder of BOCOM, all served for less than two years. Among the top ten fund managers, only Tang Xiaobin, shenaiqian and Jiang Yu have served for more than 5 years.
A general manager of the equity Department of public funds told reporters that new fund managers who have not worked for a long time are more willing to “fight out” in a short time and get market attention by betting on the track.
In 2020, the profit-making effect of the A-share market was hot, and the public funds achieved remarkable performance. The performance return of more than 40 fund managers more than doubled that year. Zhao Yi, fund manager of ABC Huili, ranked first with 161.64% performance return. Huang Anle of ICBC Credit Suisse fund, Luo Shifeng of Nord fund and Lu Bin of HSBC Jinxin were also on the list.
It is worth noting that none of the fund managers on the top 10 list in 2020 appeared in the list in 2021.
If we push the time forward for another year, we can find that no one has been listed twice in the last three years. It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve long-term and stable investment performance.
In fact, the legend of “champion curse” often exists in the field of public funds.
The so-called public offering “champion curse” refers to the fund with the highest performance in the previous year, which often performs mediocrely or even countdown in the next year.
For example, Dongfang Hongrui Hua, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen won the title of the champion fund in 2017 with an annual yield of 67.9%, but in 2018, its annual yield fell sharply to – 21.97%, outperforming the average of similar funds by 8.97 percentage points.
While Cathay Pacific nongyi, which won the championship in 2016 with an annual yield of 92.1%, flexibly configured hybrid C, the yield in 2017 was only 13.56%, far lower than the performance of the champion fund in that year.
In addition, e-fonda’s emerging growth flexible configuration hybrid once ranked first in 2015 with an annual yield of 171.78%, but in the following year, the annual yield of the product changed from profit to decline, with a significant loss of 39.83%, and outperformed the similar products by an average of more than 35 percentage points.
who is the long-distance running champion
If the time dimension is extended to a three-year period, according to the statistics of choice, 29 fund managers have achieved a performance return of more than 300% in the past three years, and Zhao Yi of ABC Huili ranks first with a performance return of 474.46%. Wang Peng of TEDA Manulife, Yan Siqian of ICBC Credit Suisse and the performance return of Ping An fund before shenai also exceeded 400%.
In the top 10 list of performance in the last three years, only three fund managers, shenaiqian, Tang Xiaobin and Wang Wei, have served for more than 5 years.
Who is the outstanding “long-distance running champion”? The ranking of fund managers with more than 5 years of service (ensuring that they have experienced at least one complete bull and bear market test) may be of certain reference value.
According to the statistics of choice, there are only 8 fund managers who have served for more than 5 years and whose geometric average annualized income has exceeded 30%. Feng Mingyuan, fund manager of Cinda Aoyin, has the highest rate of return, with a management scale of 36.777 billion yuan and an annualized rate of return of 39.54%. Ruiyuan fund Zhao Feng, Ping An fund Zhang Junsheng, Baoying fund Zhang Zhongwei and other annualized returns also exceeded 30%.
“Top flow fund managers” such as Zhou Yingbo of China Europe Fund, Mao Wei of China Southern Fund and Xie Zhiyu of Xingquan fund also appeared in the list, with an annualized rate of return of more than 26%.
Xinda Aoyin new energy industry (001410) managed by Feng Mingyuan, fund manager of Xinda Aoyin, has achieved a total return of 420% and an annualized return of 32% since taking office in October 2016, ranking first among similar funds (1 / 121).
It is worth mentioning that Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun and other well-known fund managers in the industry failed to be listed because of their poor performance in 2021 due to their heavy positions in the consumer sector, but the annualized yield in recent five years still reached 17.47% and 18.08%.
(First Finance)
