Entering 2022, the trend of A-share market is somewhat sad.
After the market fell on January 4, it was “confused” on January 5, with a large adjustment. The data showed that the Shanghai index fell 1.02%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.80% and the gem index fell 2.73%; In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell more than 1.5% and the Hang Seng technology index fell more than 4%.
The track stock encounters group extinction—— TMT, power equipment, new energy, consumption, automobile and medicine all experienced sharp shocks for two consecutive days, and the decline of new energy leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached 3.76%.
Sad investors put funds and stocks on the hot search. But is the hot track going off? What triggered the sharp fall in the beginning of the year? Is there a “spring market”? Which plates are more interesting in the follow-up?
Fund King found the hot lines of fund companies such as Boshi, China Merchants, harvest, ICBC Credit Suisse, Ping An, Dacheng, ChuangJin Hexin, Cinda Australia Bank, Wanjia, YONGYING, Tongtai and Hang Seng Qianhai to interpret.
the reason for the sharp decline in new energy has been found
Since the beginning of the year, the new energy performance of the hottest track in 2021 has been tragic, which made many small partners exclaim “what happened”? From the perspective of the fund companies interviewed, the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies by 30% and high valuation have become the main reasons.
Harvest Fund said that the sharp decline in the field of new energy was due to the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022 issued by the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission: in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. The market is regarded as bad, and the new energy sector has adjusted significantly for two consecutive days. Due to the high weight of leading companies in the gem index, the gem has also adjusted significantly.
With regard to the adjustment of today’s power equipment and new energy sector, Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that there are two main concerns in the market: first, there are recent market rumors that the local double carbon indicators will not be assessed this year, only the growth will be assessed, and the promotion speed of photovoltaic installation may slow down; Second, the recent decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, the market is worried about the decline in demand caused by the decline in subsidies. Under the background that the growth rate and penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 are much higher than expected, there are different views on whether to maintain high growth in 2022.
In addition, the adjustment of today’s technology Internet sector, Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said, is mainly due to a leading Internet company’s reduction in the equity of Southeast Asian Internet platform companies, cashing out about $3 billion. The market is associated with its significant reduction in other companies by means of dividends not long ago, and is worried that other companies may also have the risk of reduction. Under the influence of the news, the market fell sharply on the technology Internet sector. However, considering that the reduction of the company’s holdings can not only release funds to meet its investment needs for new technology projects, but also reduce potential conflicts of interest in the future development process, it has no substantive impact on the fundamentals of all parties.
Dacheng Fund also said that today, the trend of large and small tickets is differentiated, and the small market is better than the large market, which is attributed to the crowded mainstream track and the balanced position of investors. In particular, the comprehensive correction of the energy board impacted the market sentiment. On the one hand, in terms of news, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments recently issued financial subsidy policies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022, proposing that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022. Vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized, Therefore, some auto enterprises have price increase, price difference compensation and other countermeasures after the decline of subsidies, and the short-term terminal sales price may fluctuate. On the other hand, the adjustment of new energy is mainly due to the sharp rise of the new energy sector in 2021. At present, the valuation of some stocks is high, there is adjustment pressure, the matching degree between profit and valuation decreases, and the sector is adjusted by institutional position adjustment after the year.
Wang Jing, chief strategic analyst of ChuangJin Hexin, said frankly that the risk appetite of the overvalued sector is declining. She said that the market style changed dramatically in the first two trading days of 2022. Hot track stocks such as new energy and semiconductors collectively fell, the internal structural adjustment of the pharmaceutical sector was fierce, and the plight reversal sectors such as epidemic damaged stocks, real estate chain and agriculture and the meta universe sector representing emerging demand performed well. The current valuation of new energy, semiconductor and other high boom tracks contains high profit expectations. Once the boom weakens or the supply and demand structure changes, the stock price will fluctuate.
“The recent news about the double carbon assessment and the price rise of new energy vehicles will indeed lead to the fluctuation of investors’ attitude. According to the performance growth rate, the valuation of this year’s high prosperity track is not expensive, and the prosperity also remains high, but the concentration of institutional positions is too high and the transactions are crowded.” Wang Jing said that assuming that the excess return expectation of the high boom track disappears this year, under the pressure of ranking, the motivation of fund managers to adjust their positions is really strong. Now the general consensus is that this year’s high boom track has shifted from beta market to alpha market, and the adjustment caused by structural adjustment at the beginning of the year is also reasonable.
In addition, Wang Jing believes that the macro logic is similar to the interpretation in February 2021. The US bond interest rate has recently returned to the high point at the beginning of last year, and the growth stocks of US stocks have gradually begun to weaken. For the overvalued sector, risk appetite is also declining. For now, it is difficult to end the macro shock, and the transaction congestion has not been fundamentally alleviated. Before the fundamental outlook of the first quarterly report is verified, the valuation of high boom track is expected to be difficult to return to a high level. At present, the main line of the restless market in spring is the new growth (meta universe) and the plates with damaged and undervalued epidemic.
many factors triggered the market adjustment in the beginning of the year
What triggered the recent market adjustment? ICBC Credit Suisse said that today’s decline was mainly affected by the continuous decline of China concept stocks and Hang Seng technology index, the rise of US bond interest rate, the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies and other factors.
China Merchants Fund believes that the continuous adjustment of the A-share market in the two working days at the beginning of this year is mainly due to the change of market liquidity expectation and the switching of structure from overvalued value to undervalued value. Specifically, the core logic of market adjustment lies not in the growth of corporate profits at the numerator end, but in the pressure of killing valuation caused by the expected change of market liquidity at the denominator end. On the one hand, what we see is the further establishment of the status of steady growth, and the expectation of economic growth has changed from the original stall concern to the expectation of steady growth; On the other hand, what we see is the consensus judgment of the market on the decline of earnings in the second quarter. Therefore, the molecular end is not the dominant factor in the current market. In contrast, at the denominator end, China’s loose expectations tend to be consistent with less increment. At the same time, overseas monetary policy tends to be hawkish, accelerating the market’s adjustment of liquidity expectations. In this context, the market driving force changes from the numerator end to the denominator end, and the investment focus changes from high growth to undervalued value. In addition, the market lacks incremental capital support. Some stock funds panic adjusted their positions to the sectors that oversold in the early stage, superimposed near the Spring Festival, and some funds choose to cash in their income.
Cinda Aoyin believes that the main reasons are as follows: first, the death rate of Omicron has decreased compared with Delta, and overseas production has gradually recovered. The market is worried that the advantages in China’s industrial chain have been reduced this year, and the export is under pressure; Second, the market’s expectation of the US interest rate increase and contraction is faster (the US short-term interest rate continues to rise after late November), and the US interest rate increase has a certain impact on the valuation of risky assets; Third, the rumor of “controlling carbon but not energy” has shaken the market’s logic of carbon neutralization and long-term growth, and the chain reaction of institutional position adjustment has led to market correction.
YONGYING Fund believes that the overseas market adjustment affects China’s sentiment, and the style switching drags down the market performance. First, on the periphery, the rise of US bond interest rate led to the adjustment of NASDAQ, the continuous reduction of Internet leaders and the rise of overseas concerns about China’s supervision, which led to the decline of China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks, affecting the sentiment of A-share market.
Second, at the Chinese level, in terms of total volume, the steady growth policy is still being implemented gradually, and its support for the market is temporarily limited. In addition, the recent large-scale IPO has a short-term impact on the market; Structurally, during the transition from market style to “steady growth”, the growth track with high profit expectation, expensive valuation and concentrated chips fell significantly, which dragged down the overall market performance.
At the level of the third industry, market rumors about the cancellation of preferential policies for value-added tax reduction and exemption of military enterprises and the suspension of new energy policies also led to the accelerated decline of growth stocks.
Fourth, although the overall performance of the market is poor, the performance of relevant fields of “stable growth” is relatively resistant to decline, and the real estate chain and financial chain still have an increase, which is the result of the continued interpretation of the main line of the market in the near future.
Wanjia Fund believes that the market correction may be mainly affected by the listing of China Mobile at the transaction level, with a single day trading volume of more than 15 billion and a capital sucking effect. Overall, today’s decline is a benign correction, and the allocation value of the steady growth sector deserves attention.
Hang Seng Qianhai said that the main reasons are 1) the market is worried about the economic growth this year, and the “stable growth” related sectors can better hedge the risk of macroeconomic slowdown; 2) After the opening of the new year, the market style changed and the position of funds was adjusted. Among them, there was a significant correction in new energy and other sectors with strong performance last year, while the valuation of banks, household appliances, real estate and other sectors was relatively low; 3) The current pessimistic expectations for the economy and concerns about real estate risk exposure have been reflected in the valuation of relevant sectors of “stable growth”, and the margin of incremental factors that continue to decline has decreased.
the subsequent market will maintain the shock pattern
more balanced
Short term market or volatile market.
Boshi Fund said that in the first two trading days of 2022, the structural market of “ice and fire” of A-Shares continued, and the market turnover remained at a high level of trillion, indicating that the transaction activity was still high. In the winter, the global epidemic rebounded, and China also distributed more, which may suppress the expectation of further economic repair. At present, major foreign economies are gradually tightening liquidity, but China’s monetary policy emphasizes “stability”, the overall liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and relevant policies jointly help stabilize economic growth. In the future, the probability of systemic risk in A-Shares is low, and the probability will maintain a volatile trend. The logic dominated by structural market remains unchanged. Under the background of China’s economic transformation and upgrading and domestic substitution, the subdivided tracks of semiconductor and other sectors still have long-term investment value.
Similarly, ICBC Credit Suisse also believes that, on the whole, the endogenous downward pressure on the short-term economy still exists. Under the background of clear bottom support direction of stable growth policy and reasonable and abundant liquidity, the overall market will maintain a shock pattern. It is suggested to be balanced in style and pay attention to structural investment opportunities. In terms of risk, focus on the downside risk of the economy, the higher than expected spread of Omicron virus, the risk of sharp fluctuations in bulk commodities, etc.
“Wait for the steady growth policy to be gradually implemented and continue to pay attention to the direction of policy development.” YONGYING Fund said that in the future, the “stable growth” policy is expected to be gradually implemented, which will still be the main line of the recent market. Pay attention to the improvement of micro and medium data such as the total amount of social financing, bank credit, project approval of the national development and Reform Commission, financial loans, adjustment of real estate supply and demand policies, progress of affordable housing, etc. In terms of investment strategy, we still believe in the determination of policy to stabilize growth and pay attention to the dominant market of value stocks.
However, YONGYING Fund said that the following factors need attention in the near future: first, the evolution of overseas epidemic; Second, the rhythm of China’s fiscal development in advance; Third, observe China’s industrial policies, including the promotion progress of new energy, real estate financing policies, real estate tax and consumption tax.
Dacheng Fund said that although the market has suffered turbulence recently, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors have gradually subsided, and the index market is still on the way. With the gradual stabilization of the credit environment, the superposition of the cross cycle adjustment window at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and the moderate advance of the policy force in 2022, the economy is expected to gradually stabilize and warm up and provide fundamental support for the market.
China Merchants Fund frankly predicts that the market in the spring of 2022 may be more stable than that in 2021, and the performance may show a flat and slow trend: first, the current macro and micro liquidity performance is weaker than that in the same period of 2021, which makes the upward rhythm of this round of cross-year Market more moderate.
Second, different from the loosening of market liquidity expectation at the end of January 2021, the market expectation is stable under the current broad currency direction, which also makes the current round of cross year market more stable.
Third, in addition, from the molecular side, different from the fact that the market in January 2021 is completely dominated by the denominator side, the importance of the molecular side of this round of cross-year market is rising. Under the tone of “stability” and “progress in stability”, the marginal improvement of profits of molecular enterprises is worth looking forward to, and also points out the direction for structural allocation. Looking forward to the future, we can pay attention to defensive varieties to smooth short-term fluctuations. At present, the growth technology sector in the valuation digestion stage still has medium and long-term investment value, and there are many opportunities in subdivided fields with strong certainty. At the same time, follow-up consumption and infrastructure opportunities will be worth looking forward to.
Harvest Fund said that in 2022, the central bank’s regular monetary policy meeting again stressed the need to be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, and the monetary policy should be more active and promising. The one-year LPR was lowered to 3.89%, while the five-year LPR remained unchanged at 4.65%. In terms of liquidity, the central bank net invested in the open market to protect the cross-year liquidity, broaden the “double width” of money and credit, stabilize the economy gradually, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of the capital market in the coming year; Maintain the judgment of rich future structural opportunities, relatively optimistic about high-end manufacturing, new energy, required consumption and high-quality companies in the science and technology sector, and underestimate the target of the value procyclical sector.
short term optimistic about infrastructure and undervalued areas
science and technology, military industry and new energy are optimistic about
Referring to the future, Ping An Fund said that in the short term, it can find opportunities in new energy infrastructure, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage with stable economic growth. In addition, there are opportunities in the pig cycle plate under the expectation of pig price reversal and the traditional Chinese medicine plate with three end price increase. In the long run, core assets such as technology, carbon neutralization and consumption will still be the main line of the market.
Wanjia fund also believes that for the new energy sector, the boom will continue until 2030, but the market expectation or rhythm may fluctuate. There are still great investment opportunities after the subsequent adjustment of the new energy sector. In the short term, the most certain main line is still steady growth. Specifically, it is divided into three main lines:
First, the traditional infrastructure is expected to be large-scale. It is recommended to pay attention to: steel, coal, building materials and construction, and pay attention to the elastic direction: pipe.
In the second quarter and the first quarter, the role of fiscal policy is relatively mild, and the real estate policy may be greatly relaxed and adjusted in the second quarter (reducing the five-year LPR). Attention: real estate, household appliances, furniture and other sectors. The above two main lines had high game and transaction value in the first quarter.
Third, throughout the year, the mandatory consumption is a relatively certain sector. No matter whether the policy strength reaches the expectation or not, the force of monetary policy is almost certain, and the policy space is larger. The mandatory consumption either benefits from the stimulus policy or benefits from inflation, with high certainty. It is recommended to pay attention to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, and medical consumption.
ICBC Credit Suisse said that first, it pays attention to the valuation repair opportunities of financial real estate and real estate industry chain under the background of steady growth; Second, focus on new energy power generation, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles and other sectors that match the valuation and performance growth in the medium and long-term growth direction; Third, pay attention to the allocation value of roe stable sectors such as food, beverage and medicine.
Yang Zhe of Tongtai Fund said that although the macro economy has slowed down, the monetary and fiscal policies will gradually exert force. At the same time, the market is abundant and it is difficult to form a systematic adjustment. The “spring agitation” may come as scheduled. Rebalancing and adjusting funds to a more cost-effective direction is only a short-term process. It does not change the process of A-Shares reflecting the competitiveness of economic countries in the medium and long term and the growth bull market brought by structural adjustment.
“The recent adjustment is more of the growth industries and directions that led to the growth of the previous year, such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, military industry, electronics, etc.”, and in the environment of macroeconomic slowdown, these higher growth industries become scarce, so the funds will not completely flow out, only need to wait until the valuation is appropriate, just like last year’s Baijiu and medicine. Yang zhe said that we need to select carefully to find high-quality companies with sustainable prosperity, increased shipment volume and no sharp correction in price. This year, we need to find individual alpha in these high growth directions.
Hang Seng Qianhai is still optimistic about investment opportunities in two aspects. First, small and beautiful companies that meet the characteristics of “specialization and innovation”. These companies represent technological innovation and lead industry change. They are strongly supported by current policies. We suggest selecting the targets that meet the characteristics of “specialization and innovation” for layout.
Second, leading industry segments with sustained prosperity, such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries. Driven by the rising prosperity of the industry, the performance and stock price of such stocks will continue to be supported. In addition, we also suggest paying attention to the Internet, medicine and other industries that have been suppressed by policies in the short term. The negative risks of these industries have been gradually released. We suggest selecting the wrongly killed stocks in these industries for layout.
Cinda Aoyin said that investment can focus on three aspects: first, the repair of oversold industries such as transportation / breeding. At present, the market is in a chaotic period for this year’s economic expectations and is overly pessimistic about the epidemic. Now the probability is the most serious time of the epidemic in China, and most companies have enough odds after the decline of the probability of systemic risk;
Second, in the field of carbon neutralization, such as green power / new energy / wind power photovoltaic, the long-term policy / market space of carbon neutralization sector is still considerable, carbon control continues, and energy consumption control may slow down, but it does not shake the long-term logic;
Third, the counter cyclical sectors such as military industry / environmental protection / construction. We believe that their performance growth certainty will be more fully reflected this year, which is worthy of the current certainty premium. Generally speaking, the market is currently in a shock upward pattern, and there is little room for the index to continue to fall sharply. Industries with deep decline in the early stage have the internal power of short-term rebound. We suggest holding patiently at the current time point.
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(China Fund News)
