Since the new year, the new energy sector has fallen sharply for two consecutive trading days, and the CSI mainland new energy theme index has fallen by 7.29%. At the same time, funds are also accelerating their outflow from the new energy sector. Market participants believe that there are institutional position adjustment factors behind the weak performance of the new energy sector.
Some fund managers believe that in the short term, there is indeed the possibility of style conversion in the market. The prosperity of the undervalued sector has begun to improve marginally, the investment cost performance has improved, or attract continued attention of funds.
accelerated outflow of funds
On January 5, the new energy sector continued to pull back. As of the closing, the leading stocks Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell 3.76%, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) fell 3.99%, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) fell 3.62%, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) all fell more than 5%. Since December, the new energy sector has continued to callback, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has fallen 26% from its share price peak of 692 yuan / share.
At the same time, funds are also accelerating their outflow from the new energy sector. According to the data, on January 5, the net outflow of the main funds of the new energy vehicle concept plate was 14.378 billion yuan, the net outflow of the main funds of the photovoltaic concept plate was 12.368 billion yuan, and the net outflow of the main funds of the lithium battery plate was 10.349 billion yuan.
position transfer and share exchange of fund institutions
Does the continuous correction of the new energy sector mean that the fund institutions are changing positions and shares?
China Securities News reporter interviewed a number of market participants, and many fund managers said that there were indeed signs of position adjustment. "There are indeed institutional factors behind the decline of the current popular track." Xingshi investment chief research official Lei said.
Fang Lei believes that there may be two reasons for institutional position adjustment: on the one hand, the certainty of "steady growth" of economy in 2022 is becoming greater and greater. Under the change of macro environment and economic expectation, funds begin to pay attention to the investment direction related to "counter cycle" and "steady growth"; On the other hand, the end of the year and the beginning of the year are usually the time point for style change or high-low switching, and institutional funds begin to pay attention to investment opportunities in undervalued areas.
The fund manager of a large public fund company said that one of the reasons for the recent adjustment of the new energy track is that the transaction is crowded and the institutional funds are changing positions. In addition, it is also out of concern about the decline of financial subsidies and that the insufficient supply of lithium carbonate may limit the installed capacity.
Huang Peng, manager of Mingshi partnership fund, said that from the observed differences between the net value of some public funds and heavy positions in the third quarter, there is indeed the behavior of institutional position adjustment. However, from the market point of view and the direction of most net worth fluctuations, a large number of institutions continue to stick to it. "It does not rule out the logical change of other market participants in the process of decline, emotional panic or killing opportunities, so position adjustment is more an individual behavior of different institutions from the perspective of strategy and cost performance." He said.
Another broker said that the annual ranking war has ended, and some fund managers are likely to have adjusted their positions since the new year. However, in the past two trading days, most of the concept plates that have been hyped by market funds are hyped by hot money.
style change or coming
Will there be a sharp decline in the new energy track like the Baijiu plate in early 2021?
Some fund managers believe that the main reason for the current round of decline in new energy is to kill the valuation. Huang Peng said that in the long run, there is no problem with the improvement of the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches of new energy. From the perspective of the industrial cycle, new energy is still in the early growth stage and is far from the stage where the growth logic disappears. In early 2021, the large consumption plate represented by Baijiu fell. It has both high valuation factors and a decline in performance forecast caused by the macroeconomic downturn and the impact of the epidemic. It is different from the reason for the decline of the new energy sector.
Will the transformation of market style come again? Institutional sources said that it is not ruled out that the market style may switch from the popular track in 2021 to other directions.
Fang Lei believes that the extreme structural differentiation will be alleviated in 2022 and the market style will tend to be balanced. At present, the prosperity of the undervalued sector has begun to improve marginally, with its valuation in a more reasonable space, and the investment cost performance has improved, which may attract continued attention of funds.
"In the short term, there is the possibility of style conversion." Huang Peng said that at the macro level, the Fed may enter the interest rate increase cycle, superimposing the policy tone of China's stable growth, and the undervalued stocks with large early decline are expected to have relative returns in a short time. However, we also need to consider that China's liquidity is relatively loose, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle will also curb demand, and the control of the epidemic will accelerate the release of supply. This round of fed interest rate increase cycle is more related to the insufficient global supply caused by the epidemic, which is still different from the traditional interest rate increase cycle caused by overheated demand. Therefore, there is still great uncertainty about whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates and the intensity of interest rate increase, which needs to be observed continuously. From the perspective of longer cycle, the downward trend of global potential economic growth is inevitable, and the growth style will still perform well.
China Europe Fund believes that the recent acceleration of institutional capital reallocation has exacerbated the volatility of core industries of position adjustment and stock exchange. In the context of economic stabilization and flexible adjustment of monetary policy, we are optimistic about the food and beverage, household appliances and other industries in the consumer sector, as well as the infrastructure field, especially the new energy infrastructure in line with the "double carbon" strategy. There are a lot of construction gaps in the next few years. We can pay attention to investment opportunities in power construction, new energy power station operation, transmission and distribution equipment and other fields.
(China Securities Journal)
