Standing at the starting point of 2022, Zeng Xiaojie, chairman of yuanlesheng assets, Liu Qingshan, chairman of qinghequan assets, Xia Junjie, general manager of Renqiao assets, and Wang Yiping, founder of evolutionism assets, summarized the gains and losses of investment in 2021 and jointly felt the pulse of investment in the new year. They believe that in 2022, both steady growth and structural adjustment will be emphasized, the impact of monetary policy tightening of foreign central banks on A-Shares is limited, and the market may show a balanced style in stages, but growth is still the main line of the whole year.
investment gains and losses in 2021
For the past 2021, Taurus private equity leaders have summarized the gains and losses in investment.
Xia Junjie said that in 2021, Renqiao has done a good job in three aspects of investment: first, the stocks that do not hold core assets make it avoid the fluctuations and losses at the beginning of the year; Secondly, some varieties of previous reverse strategy layout reaped higher than expected returns; Finally, despite the poor overall performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2021, Renqiao assets still gained from Hong Kong stock investment.
Zeng Xiaojie concluded that in 2021, yuanlesheng's assets did well in two aspects: first, when it saw that the consumption and Internet industry had increased greatly in the past two years and there were some problems in fundamentals, it timely reduced its positions in a large proportion; Second, when seeing the opportunities brought by the "double carbon" policy, we resolutely allocated new energy related manufacturing stocks.
Wang Yiping said that the first quarter of 2021 substantially reduced the position of the Internet and hang seng index, and after March, it configured the new energy middle reaches, semiconductor, Baijiu, medicine and other sectors of A share market.
Liu Qingshan said that the extremely differentiated and fast switching market has brought challenges to investment. It has not met expectations from the perspective of fluctuation control. When it is difficult to predict and short-term factors appear, it still needs to be dealt with in a timely manner through in-depth research.
three questions need to be considered
Looking forward to 2022, Xia Junjie believes that there are three problems to be considered: first, what are the deterministic variables and what are the uncertain variables in 2022; Second, whether the source of income in 2022 is to earn valuation money or performance money; Third, where are the opportunities for the best risk return ratio.
In this regard, Xia Junjie said that first, the most certain variable in 2022 should be the downward pressure on economic growth and the resulting downward growth of corporate profits. Whether the macro fundamentals can gradually stabilize in the second half of 2022, the strength and sustainability of the policy are particularly important. The biggest uncertain variable in 2022 is inflation. Whether it is oil price or Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, there are a series of constraints on supply or cost, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. The trend of inflation will ultimately determine the space and rhythm of monetary policy, and will also affect the direction of the capital market.
For monetary policy, Liu Qingshan believes that in 2022, the Fed's policy will enter a tightening cycle, and China's monetary policy will remain loose, but the impact of external tightening effects tends to weaken, with limited impact on a shares. In 2022, the policy will focus on economic construction and pay equal attention to steady growth and structural adjustment. Under the general trend from real estate infrastructure cycle to dual carbon innovation cycle, new economic development will be given priority, and growth stocks will still be the main line of the whole year.
explore growth stock investment opportunities
Most of the revenue in 2021 comes from the performance growth of listed companies. For 2022, Xia Junjie believes that due to the decline in the certainty of the overall economy and corporate profits, the opportunity to earn performance growth will obviously become more and more difficult. Those companies with high valuations and high expectations will probably become "hardest hit areas" in the process of performance slowdown; On the contrary, companies that underestimate value and low expectations tend to have better relative performance.
Xia Junjie said that at present, we can pay more attention to the companies with poor performance in 2021 in the growth industry. The poor performance is usually temporary and often the result of the superposition of a variety of adverse factors, but these factors are not sustainable. The worst is a high probability event.
Liu Qingshan said that after nearly three years of market evolution, it is now in a situation that "companies with a future are more expensive and cheap companies have no future". The stock selection logic in 2022 should return to fundamentals, and high-quality companies with growth and certainty will have obvious excess returns. In the industry direction, Liu Qingshan is optimistic about new energy and new power system in new manufacturing industry, military industry and automobile intelligence in hard science and technology, food and beverage and airport in consumer services.
Wang Yiping said that in 2022, investment opportunities will be explored mainly in four directions: cycle, medical treatment, high-end manufacturing and consumption upgrading.
In addition, Xia Junjie believes that the opportunity with the best risk return ratio in 2022 is in Hong Kong stocks. At present, the A / h premium is at a high level in recent ten years. Hong Kong stocks have significantly lost A-Shares for three consecutive years and maintained a continuous low correlation with a shares. The Hong Kong stock market may be an important winner of investment performance in 2022.
(China Securities Journal · China Securities Network)
