On the evening of January 5, the special live broadcast of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) new year was officially launched. Director Huang Yanming of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, together with three chief macro analysts Dong Qi, Zhang Chen and Wang Hao and three chief strategic analysts Chen Xianshun, Fang Yi and Chen ximiao, unveiled the investment password of 2022.
macroscopically, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that active finance in 2022 will be more reflected in road transportation, water conservancy projects, energy and other fields. In 2022, the monetary policy will be relaxed steadily, and there is little suspense, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates is still expected.
For the investment rhythm of the equity market in 2022, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that in general, 2022 needs “advanced and backward defense”, that is, restlessness in spring will bring significant investment opportunities, but attention should be paid to defense in summer. In terms of style, growth opportunities are still there, value returns to the stage, the cycle booms and wanes, and consumption turns around. The profits of manufacturing industry are expected to improve, and there are still good opportunities for scientific and creative themes such as specialization and innovation.
it is estimated that the real GDP growth rate in 2022 will be about 5.1%
In view of next year’s macro-economy, Huang Yanming focused on the two “steady growth” of Finance and currency in the live broadcast, especially where is the positive finance pointing? How much credit is there?
In this regard, Dong Qi, chief Macro Analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , said that the actual growth rate of China’s GDP is expected to be about 5.1% in 2022, and the economic momentum is low before and high after. At the same time, the road condition of the “old road” of real estate is worrying. The real estate investment may fall into the negative growth range in the first quarter of 2022, which is not enough to undertake the important task of “stable growth”.
In this context, infrastructure investment may reach double-digit growth in stages. With regard to the new and old infrastructure issues hotly discussed in the market, Dong Qi particularly stressed that although the new infrastructure has strong momentum for future development driven by the dual carbon goal, the volume of the old infrastructure is about 9 times that of the new infrastructure, and steady growth is inseparable from the help of the old infrastructure. Considering the major project planning of provinces in the “14th five year plan” and the recent investment direction of special bond funds, active finance will be more reflected in the fields of highway transportation, water conservancy projects, energy and so on.
Wang Hao, CO chief Macro Analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , expounded his views on monetary policy. In his view, he said that there is little suspense about the steady loosening of monetary policy, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can still be expected, and the corresponding clues can be captured at the recent regular meeting of the central bank. Under the influence of two direct monetary policy tools (small and micro enterprise loan extension plan and credit loan support plan), carbon emission reduction support tools and special refinancing to support clean and efficient utilization of coal, the structural wide credit feature will continue to ferment, and it will be more prominent in 2022, with highlights in infrastructure supporting, manufacturing and real estate.
In terms of infrastructure construction, Huang Yanming specifically asked Chen Xianshun whether to push the cycle of infrastructure construction?
Chen Xianshun, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) held a clear negative attitude, “The core of the follow-up infrastructure chain lies in leveraging large-scale funds through large infrastructure projects to form physical workload and increase demand, transportation, water conservancy and municipal pipe network (sponge city) The new power grid will be the main investment direction. Based on this logic, it mainly promotes the middle and downstream infrastructure such as ordinary steel, engineering machinery, infrastructure construction of traditional infrastructure and rail transit equipment, power grid equipment and pipes of new infrastructure, rather than the upstream resources driven by the inventory bullwhip effect as understood by the previous market. ”
Dong Qi also said that in the field of infrastructure construction, we should focus on the marginal changes of capital supply, project reserves and local will, and investment opportunities should focus more on transportation, water conservancy projects, energy and electricity and Rural Revitalization.
the market is “advanced and backward”, and mass consumer goods will become the main line
For 2022, Chen Xianshun believes that there will be a volatile market throughout the year, with structure first. In the first half of 2022, loose expectations are overweight, and we are optimistic about the cross year market of restless succession in spring. However, after the agitation, as the economic downturn and profit pressure become more prominent, and the easing policy is expected to have stronger concentration and restraint than in the past, the rising potential energy is temporarily constrained, and it is expected to return to the range shock. Since then, in the second half of 2022, the economy has slowly walked out of the haze of “weak recession”, the uncertainty of economic policy has decreased, and the market has gradually warmed up.
In terms of market style, Fang Yi, CO chief strategic analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , summarized the style characteristics of the market in 2022 as “growth in growth, value in value”.
“There are still opportunities for growth, but it is difficult to run through the whole year. The market rhythm depends on liquidity expectations, and the key observation window is in spring. In terms of value, the stability of profit superimposes the repair trend, and the value will return to the center of the stage of style configuration.” Fang Yi said.
The market size differentiation between 2020 and 2021 is extreme. Should we buy large companies or small companies in 2022?
Fang Yi believes that the differentiation of size is only the appearance, and the difference of prosperity is the origin. The core of style interpretation in 2022 is to increase the “certainty” element, which has a foothold in both large and small companies. It is suggested to dilute the size style and pay attention to the track Nuggets.
On the specific track, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) co chief strategic analyst Chen ximiao added. She said that the industry configuration in 2022, undervalued + profit reversal logic most popular consumer goods will become the main line, and the pig, Baijiu, dairy products, condiments, textile and clothing are mainly recommended. And the industry is expected to reverse the expected strong vehicle, auto parts and small appliances, white goods. In the field of high-end manufacturing, attention is paid to the equipment manufacturing that alleviates the pressure on the upstream cost side, is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price, and the mechanical equipment that continues to benefit from the export boom line.
On the whole, the research team of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) holds a relatively positive view on consumer stocks in 2022. Zhang Chen, CO chief Macro Analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) also explained the reasons for optimistic consumption from a policy perspective.
“On the one hand, the easing of economic K-type differentiation will release the cost side pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises. During the convergence of ppi-cpi scissors gap in 2017-2019, residents’ operating income and offline consumption hit the bottom, indicating that the release of upstream cost pressure is conducive to the employment repair of low-income groups. Under the background of ensuring supply and stable price, the price of raw materials has shown a significant downward trend, which is squeezing the downstream small and medium-sized enterprises Marginal slowdown; On the other hand, the marginal weakening of the epidemic has driven the repair of employment in the service industry with intensive low-income groups. In addition, the intensive introduction of consumption promotion policies in rural areas in 2021 resulted in a significant increase in the net transfer income of rural residents in 2021q3, and the savings rate also returned to the pre epidemic level. Subsequently, with the strengthening of the policy orientation of common prosperity, the consumption momentum of rural residents will continue to be strong. ” Zhang Chen said.
Chen Xianshun also believes that the three factors of double control and correction, stable policy growth and export toughness will promote the recovery of the employment boom in 2022, so there is no need to worry too much about the pressure at the level of consumer demand. The focus of the follow-up consumer market will shift from the expectation of price increase to performance realization. It is recommended to optimize the competition pattern of the industry, repair the demand, and successfully realize the performance after the price increase.
Since the Ministry of industry and information technology carried out the cultivation of the third batch of specialized and special new enterprises in 2021, specialized and special new enterprises have set off an investment wave in the equity market. Chen ximiao has made a special study on this issue. She believes that the investment core of specialized and special new enterprises lies in domestic substitution, welcoming growth space, and optimizing small and beautiful science and technology.
“the essence of specializing in Texin business model is to specialize in the technology intensive links of global to B. It is a combination of elements of ‘strong technology + weak scale (capital)’ in the production function. It forms a factual monopoly through technology leadership to obtain excess profits, rather than realizing the scale effect through large-scale investment and production.” Chen ximiao said that in 2022, we need to pay attention to the progress in subdivided fields such as semiconductor materials, wind power equipment, biological products and new metal materials.
(brokerage China)
