Today (January 6), the three major A-share indexes opened low. After the initial shock, the inertia of the stock index weakened. With the rebound of track stocks, the stock index stabilized and gradually rose near noon. From the disk point of view, the violent rise of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, hydrogen energy and other sectors, the outbreak of the concept of the Winter Olympic industrial chain, the outstanding performance of infrastructure targets led by real estate, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that opportunities outweigh risks in January, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy form a resonance. Among them, the valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring. The market probability will not repeat the adjustment in February last year. On the one hand, the core assets accelerated from January to February last year, but the prosperity was not high. On the other hand, the overall market valuation was at a high level at that time. After the market adjustment, some segments of growth have begun to have cost performance. In 2022, PEG dropped to less than 1, opening up room for rise for the subsequent spring agitation.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] real estate
Cinda Securities said that the real estate industry is entering the best time point of policy game. At present, the main contradiction facing the industry is that the pressure on the capital chain of real estate enterprises is large in the short term, which is not enough to cope with the due pressure. Especially near the end of the year, the payment of wages of suppliers, general contractors and migrant workers has reached the time node, and the sales market is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Most private real estate companies are affected by the credit impact, and the main credit is still difficult to repair, Therefore, the real estate industry may enter a high-risk period of intensive mine explosion in the future.
Once the real estate industry explodes in a large area, there may be the risk of economic stall and decline. In order to prevent and resolve the impact of the “grey rhinoceros” in the real estate industry, we expect to have stronger policies or on the road. In the short term, the real estate sector is entering the period of policy game. At this stage, it is suggested to select state-owned enterprises and central enterprises with abundant monetary funds and stable operation. In the long run, after the continuous liquidation of the real estate industry in the future, the number of participants in the industry will decrease and the competition pattern will be significantly improved. The enterprises that are expected to survive under the current round of market-oriented supply side reform will see the stabilization of business scale and profitability, and the valuation is expected to be significantly repaired. At present, the long-term operation is stable and the management ability is excellent, Enterprises that already have a certain nature of operating moat deserve special attention.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the policy positive signal is obvious. After a certain period of transmission, the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginally loose. Three main investment lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the painful period; Main line 2: more attention is paid to long-term business; Main line 3: revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises.
At the current time point, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance can not only seize the opportunity of land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. They have significant comparative advantages and will fully benefit from the current downward cycle of the industry. In January, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) were recommended.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that in 2022, the industry policy will focus on “stability” and adhere to the main tone of “housing, housing and non speculation”. Under the guarantee of marginal easing of monetary policy and “guaranteed delivery of housing”, the overall industry sales will show a stable downward trend; The shortage of enterprise funds may be alleviated, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the leading market share of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is expected to continue to rise; The valuation of leading enterprises will continue to be repaired, driving the recovery of industry valuation as a whole. []
[Topic 2] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that recently, the market’s concern about the rapid rise of lithium price and “insufficient lithium supply” led to a significant adjustment in the lithium sector. We judge that the new global lithium supply in 2022 can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of electric vehicle industry. Subject to the development cycle of mineral resources, we expect lithium to become one of the most sustainable links in the power battery industry chain. At the same time, it is expected that the catalyst and rising power of the sector will shift from “price rise” to “performance”, and the lithium sector will have strong valuation advantages and configuration value in 2022. We maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market” in the lithium industry, focus on recommending enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium mines and high degree of performance fulfillment, recommend Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , and suggest paying attention to Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) Shenzhen Hekeda Precision Cleaning Equipment Co.Ltd(002816) manufacturing.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources has intensified, the lithium price has accelerated upward, the lithium price center has maintained a high level, and the plate value has become prominent. At the supply side, the production of salt lakes is reduced seasonally, the release of smelting capacity is also subject to ore, and there is little increase in global supply in the medium and short term; However, the demand side lithium battery production has increased month by month. Battery factories and midstream material factories prepared goods years ago. At the same time, the midstream and downstream expanded production and scale, amplifying the demand for the upstream; The inventory of all parties in the industry is low, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, the spot price accelerates, the contract price of large manufacturers rises month by month, the price of individual orders jumps, and the lithium price center remains high with the support of supply and demand.
In terms of investment suggestions, focus on the leading industry segments with global competitiveness and high growth tracks represented by lithium iron phosphate and high nickel: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the links and companies that are still tight in supply and demand, can obtain excess profits of the industrial chain and continue to expand: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) . []
[Topic 3] hydrogen energy
Guorong Securities said that the hydrogen energy policy is constantly positive, and the industry is in the cultivation period of 0 to 1. The reduction of import tax rate of core parts of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, on the one hand, will accelerate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, on the other hand, it is also expected to accelerate the introduction, digestion and absorption of overseas technologies and promote domestic substitution. National and local industrial plans have been continuously issued. China has formed three hydrogen fuel cell demonstration urban agglomerations in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai and Guangdong, with a demonstration period of four years. 30 provinces in China have introduced policies related to hydrogen energy. With the gradual implementation of supporting policies, the industry’s technological progress and cost decline are expected to accelerate. At present, the industry is in the cultivation period of 0 to 1, and there is a trend of mass production of core components such as electrolytic cell and proton exchange membrane.
The agency further analyzed that the hydrogen energy industry is about to usher in a 10 fold growth, and a trillion track is being opened. According to the 2020 report on the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry, it is estimated that China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be close to 100000 by 2025. At present, the cumulative sales of fuel cells in China is 8313, and there is expected to be 10 times more room for growth during the 14th five year plan period. The accelerated development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is expected to drive the multi link application expansion of upstream hydrogen production and storage, midstream hydrogen fuel cell and downstream vehicle, and the industry market space is expected to exceed trillion. From the perspective of investment suggestions, we should pay attention to relevant enterprises that actively layout the hydrogen energy industry chain. 1) Fuel cell stack and proton exchange membrane manufacturers with independent technology; 2) Enterprises that realize hydrogen energy layout through equity participation.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the hydrogen energy policy has entered a period of intensive introduction, and the policy promotes capital investment and pushes the industry into the fast lane. In terms of investment suggestions, companies in all links of China’s hydrogen energy industry chain are accelerating their layout, especially in hydrogen production and hydrogenation stations, which are ready to go. It is recommended to pay attention to the main equipment targets in all links under the long-term high prospect. []
[theme 4] ice and snow industry
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that we should pay attention to the Winter Olympic industry chain and the investment opportunities of “tourism + sports” in winter. The Beijing Winter Olympics will be held in Zhangjiakou and Beijing on February 4, 2022. The holding of international top events will drive the ice and snow “sports + tourism” market in North China with Beijing as the core, as well as the marketing related to the Winter Olympics and investment opportunities in the surrounding industrial chain.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that the Winter Olympics is expected to accelerate the development of China’s ice and snow sports and ice and snow tourism. A new wave of upsurge is rising in the winter tourism market. There is strong demand in the ice and snow tourism market in low-risk areas and non competition core areas. Consumers are actively looking forward to the return of outbound tourism. Destination vaccination, destination risk level, isolation and nucleic acid policies will become the focus of the investigation. “Revisiting the old place” and “completing the previous travel plan” will become the main driving force for the next outbound tourism.
Chuancai Securities believes that the hosting of the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games has effectively promoted the Chinese people’s attention to many sports. China will host the Winter Olympic Games in 2022, or further promote the development of ice and snow sports in China. At the same time, the implementation of the national fitness plan (2021-2025) will also promote the diversified development of sports, Continue to provide growth power for the market segments. It is recommended to pay attention to the manufacturing and sales enterprises of relevant sporting goods and outdoor equipment.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that the young tourists of new year’s day tourism occupied the mainstream, and the theme of ice and snow reached another climax. The flying pig report points out that the bookings of hotels, tickets and car rentals on New Year’s day have doubled over the previous week. Among the people traveling on New Year’s day, “post-90s” and “post-00s” account for more than 70%. Young users become the main force of travel orders on New Year’s day. According to the data of hornet’s nest, among the top ten tourism products with orders during New Year’s day, ski and hot spring related products accounted for 90%. Ice and snow tourism is both participatory and experiential. With the approach of the Winter Olympic Games, its popularity will reach a climax again, which will play an important role in stimulating the cultural tourism industry. []
