Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guorong Securities: the hydrogen energy industry is about to usher in a 10 fold growth trillion track is opening
The hydrogen energy policy is constantly favorable, and the industry is in the cultivation period of 0 to 1. The reduction of import tax rate of core parts of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, on the one hand, will accelerate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, on the other hand, it is also expected to accelerate the introduction, digestion and absorption of overseas technologies and promote domestic substitution. National and local industrial plans have been continuously issued. China has formed three hydrogen fuel cell demonstration urban agglomerations in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai and Guangdong, with a demonstration period of four years. 30 provinces in China have introduced policies related to hydrogen energy. With the gradual implementation of supporting policies, the industry’s technological progress and cost decline are expected to accelerate. At present, the industry is in the cultivation period of 0 to 1, and there is a trend of mass production of core components such as electrolytic cell and proton exchange membrane.
The hydrogen energy industry is about to usher in a 10 fold growth, and the trillion track is opening. According to the 2020 report on the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry, it is estimated that China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be close to 100000 by 2025. At present, the cumulative sales of fuel cells in China is 8313, and there is expected to be 10 times more room for growth during the 14th five year plan period. The accelerated development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is expected to drive the multi link application expansion of upstream hydrogen production and storage, midstream hydrogen fuel cell and downstream vehicle, and the industry market space is expected to exceed trillion. From the perspective of investment suggestions, we should pay attention to relevant enterprises that actively layout the hydrogen energy industry chain. 1) Fuel cell stack and proton exchange membrane manufacturers with independent technology; 2) Enterprises that realize hydrogen energy layout through equity participation. []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : analysis of hydrogen energy industry chain! There is much room for green hydrogen to reduce costs, which is a long-term development trend
For the upstream of hydrogen energy, the hydrogen energy permeability is only 2.7% in 2019, and coal to hydrogen is the current mainstream & Green hydrogen has great room for long-term cost reduction.
1) Hydrogen energy penetration: in 2019, China’s hydrogen production capacity will be about 41 million tons / year, and the output will be about 33.42 million tons, accounting for only 2.7% of the total terminal energy. With policy support, the hydrogen demand is expected to account for 10% in the terminal energy system by 2050 and 20% by 2060. 2) Hydrogen production: China’s fossil fuel hydrogen production is the most mainstream at present, and there is much room for green hydrogen cost reduction, which is a long-term development trend.
For the middle reaches of hydrogen energy, gaseous hydrogen storage is the main, solid-liquid industrialization needs to be tackled, and the layout of hydrogenation station is accelerated.
1) Storage and transportation: high pressure gaseous hydrogen storage is the mainstream. 20MPa gaseous high pressure hydrogen storage and cluster tube truck transportation are widely used in China. There is great potential for long-distance + large-scale liquid storage and transportation, and the industrialization of solid and liquid hydrogen storage needs to reduce costs and tackle key technical problems. 2) Filling: the filling cost is still high, and the accelerated layout and large-scale construction of the hydrogenation station are expected to reduce the cost.
For the downstream of hydrogen energy: fuel cell is a common terminal application form, which is mainly used in the field of Transportation & construction.
1) Development situation in the transportation field: the battery type is proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), and 3712 battery vehicles have been connected to the Chinese platform by the end of 2019. 2) Development situation in the construction field: the battery type is solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), which have been commercialized in the United States and Japan, and China is still in the preliminary research and development stage. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : Companies in all links of the hydrogen energy industry chain are accelerating the layout it is recommended to pay attention to related equipment targets under the long-term high climate
The hydrogen energy policy has entered a period of intensive introduction. The policy promotes capital investment and pushes the industry into the fast lane. As of November 2021, 29 provinces and cities including Beijing, Hebei, Sichuan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia have issued policies related to the development of hydrogen energy industry, and more than 48 cities have issued hydrogen energy policies to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry. In August 2021, the first three major hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters were launched, marking that China’s hydrogen energy industrialization application has entered the acceleration period of policy support. From point to area, the development of fuel cell industry is imperative. Favorable policies attract major social capital to pay attention to hydrogen energy track and increase capital investment. According to the disclosure of SASAC, as of June 2021, more than one-third of central enterprises have laid out the hydrogen energy industry chain, and other high-end equipment manufacturing companies are also active in investment and M & A of the hydrogen energy industry chain. R & D projects have been promoted orderly, and many key technologies have entered the experimental stage. In the future, localization substitution is expected to accelerate, and cost reduction and large-scale application form an effective positive cycle.
In terms of investment suggestions, companies in all links of China’s hydrogen energy industry chain are accelerating their layout, especially in hydrogen production and hydrogenation stations, which are ready to go. Under the long-term high prospect, it is recommended to pay attention to the main equipment targets of all links, upstream hydrogen production links: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) ; Upstream storage and transportation links: Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , CIMC Enrico (H), Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Hangzhou Zhongtai Cryogenic Technology Corporation(300435) , Chengdu Shenleng Liquefaction Plant Co.Ltd(300540) , Yapp Automotive Systems Co.Ltd(603013) , Changchun Zhiyuan New Energy Equipment Co.Ltd(300985) ; Upstream hydrogen filling link: Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) ; Midstream fuel cell power system: Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Anhui Quanchai Engine Co.Ltd(600218) , Shenzhen Center Power Tech.Co.Ltd(002733) , Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co.Ltd(002249) , Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co.Ltd(300091) . []
Ping An Securities: hydrogen storage and transportation is a key link restricting industrial development hydrogen energy development brings new opportunities to the pressure vessel industry
From the perspective of the law of industrial development, hydrogen storage facilities are the infrastructure of hydrogen energy industry. In the process of industrial development, it is necessary to build them moderately in advance in order to support industrial development; Hydrogen storage and transportation is the key link restricting the development of the industry. The development of hydrogen energy industry brings new opportunities to the pressure vessel industry, and the requirements for materials are becoming higher and higher; The storage and transportation cost accounts for about 30% of the total cost. Economic, efficient and safe storage and transportation technology has become one of the main bottlenecks restricting the large-scale application of hydrogen energy. With the increase of the construction of hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen production stations, the demand for storage tanks will increase steadily, and the barriers of high-pressure and large-capacity storage tanks are high. It is suggested to pay attention to high-pressure hydrogen container manufacturing companies; There is a large demand for vehicle storage tanks. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with type III and type IV hydrogen storage bottle technology; In terms of materials, it is recommended to pay attention to the companies producing steel and carbon fiber for storage tanks. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : focus on the investment direction of tire, biodiesel and photovoltaic hydrogen production industry
China’s chemical industry is in an important period of strategic opportunities. The industry is transforming to a high-quality development model, and the field of renewable and new energy upstream materials will still usher in major development opportunities. In the medium and long term, it is difficult for the operating rate of high energy consumption (industrial silicon, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus, caustic soda, synthetic ammonia, etc.) products to have an obvious upward trend. It is difficult for the prices of most chemical products affected by dual control of energy consumption to fall sharply. The boom height of this round of chemical products may exceed the market expectation. Looking forward to January 2022, we focus on the investment direction of tire, biodiesel and photovoltaic hydrogen production industry. []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : ” carbon neutralization ” revitalize Metallurgical Engineering ! Leveraging the 100 billion market of hydrogen metallurgy
Hydrogen rich blast furnace process may be the mainstream technology in the next decade, and hydrogen based direct reduction iron may usher in great development after 2030. The goal of “carbon neutralization” of iron and steel is ambitious, but it still needs to be implemented step by step. Combined with the goal of 30% emission reduction in 2030-2035, the hydrogen rich blast furnace process can be based on the existing assets of China’s iron and steel industry and usher in rapid growth in the next decade. Hydrogen based direct reduction iron is the ultimate technology of hydrogen metallurgy. However, due to the weak foundation of direct reduction iron in China, it is expected to be popularized on a large scale after 2030.
“Carbon neutralization” rejuvenates the vitality of metallurgical engineering, and the market scale of blast furnace transformation may reach 100 billion in the next decade. If the penetration rate of blast furnace hydrogen rich transformation in China can reach 50% by 2030, referring to the investment density of Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) blast furnace transformation and considering certain optimization space, the market space of blast furnace hydrogen rich transformation in China may reach 440 billion in the next decade. Among them, safe and efficient gas heating device is a new application under the development of blast furnace hydrogen enrichment, which is a subdivision field with more growth flexibility.
Hydrogen based direct reduction iron will affect the synchronous upgrading and innovation of upstream and downstream, and the long-term investment may involve trillion yuan. The investment intensity of hydrogen based direct reduction iron is about 1.3 times that of blast furnace transformation, and the market space is obviously wider. In order to achieve “zero carbon”, it will also drive the supporting investment in the transformation and upgrading of downstream process electric arc furnace and upstream clean energy hydrogen production. Among them, high temperature gas cooled reactor hydrogen production has the advantages of strong safety, large scale of hydrogen production and high energy utilization efficiency. It has also become one of the development directions of hydrogen metallurgy. []
Shengang Securities: hydrogen has great growth space, and the cost advantage of coal hydrogen production is significant
Hydrogen production from coal is the main route of hydrogen in China. At present, China’s hydrogen production mainly depends on fossil energy, while the scale of hydrogen production from clean energy and energy utilization of hydrogen is still in its infancy. In China, the proportion of hydrogen produced by coal chemical industry reaches 61%, the proportion of hydrogen produced by natural gas is 19%, and the hydrogen produced by electrolytic water accounts for less than 1%.
The cost of hydrogen produced by dry pulverized coal gasification process is about 0.91 yuan / m3, i.e. about 10 yuan / kg. In areas rich in coal resources, the coal price may be as low as 200 yuan / ton. In this case, the cost of coal hydrogen production is about 7 yuan / kg, and the coal hydrogen production route has significant cost advantages.
Hydrogen has great room for growth in the future. At present, hydrogen is more chemical intermediate than energy use, and the application in the field of hydrogen transportation accounts for only 1%. According to the prediction of China’s hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry development report 2020, the average annual demand for hydrogen will be about 35 million tons in 2030. By 2050, the demand for hydrogen will be close to 130 million tons. The large-scale production of renewable energy hydrogen production line is difficult to achieve in a short time, and China’s stock of industrial by-product hydrogen is less, which can not support the rapid development of the industry and the hydrogen demand in the mature period. We believe that coal based fossil energy combined with carbon dioxide resource utilization scheme will still be the mainstream hydrogen supply mode in the rising stage of hydrogen energy industry. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : hydrogen energy is expected to enter a rapid development stage the industry ushers in important development opportunities
On December 17, Shenzhen hydrogen energy industry development plan (2021-2025) was officially released. According to the plan, by 2025, Shenzhen will form a relatively complete hydrogen energy industry development ecosystem, build a hydrogen energy industry technology source, advanced manufacturing cluster highland and multi scenario application demonstration base, realize the commercial application of hydrogen energy, and the scale of hydrogen energy industry will reach 50 billion yuan. Specifically, the “planning” puts forward clear requirements in three aspects: innovation capacity-building, industrial agglomeration development and application demonstration and promotion. Looking forward to 2035, the scale of hydrogen energy industry in Shenzhen will reach 200 billion yuan, forming a hydrogen energy industry system integrating hydrogen production, storage, transportation, processing and application, and the key technology will reach the international advanced level.
Local governments have high enthusiasm for the layout of hydrogen energy industry. Since 2020, 16 provinces and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Zhejiang have successively formulated the development plan of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry, and made a detailed layout of the planning and construction of hydrogen refueling stations, the promotion and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and the core industrial chain. Continuous policy support and guidance lay a good foundation for the continuous innovation of hydrogen energy technology and the continuous improvement of the industrial chain. Hydrogen energy is expected to enter a rapid development stage and usher in important development opportunities for the industry.
