The decline of subsidies has led to the "rise" of high-priced models, but high hopes are still placed on the new energy vehicle market in 2022. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger Federation, told the financial associated press that in 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 6 million, including more than 5.5 million new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles, realizing a super growth trend.
It is generally believed that auto enterprises can gradually cover the cost of subsidy decline through technological upgrading and scale effect. However, it is worth noting that the decline in subsidies is superimposed on the increase in lithium battery prices, and the pressure of "lack of core" still exists. Whether the pressure of the industrial chain can make car enterprises achieve their wishes is still worried by investors.
6 million vehicles in 2022
Recently, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued a notice showing that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. Qian Wenying, a researcher at the case center of China Europe International Business School, believes that the decline of the subsidy is not a sudden new deal, but in the expectation of the market. As early as April last year, the policy of the Ministry of industry and information technology made it clear that the subsidy standard from 2020 to 2022 will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
Cui Dongshu also said that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% in 2022, which is relatively in line with expectations, mainly because the policy defines the process of subsidy decline, and in terms of the extent of decline, it can be gradually covered through scale effect on the whole.
On the other hand, Qian Wenying believes that consumers' decision to buy new energy vehicles will not be completely controlled by subsidies, and the new energy vehicle market can gradually shift from policy leading to market leading. "From the data of 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles begins to climb, infiltrating from the original early bird consumers to the mass consumer group."
Although the annual sales data of new energy vehicles in 2021 has not been released, it can be seen from the data of the previous 11 months that the market is hot. According to the data of China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) and physical power industry association, the market penetration of new energy vehicles has reached 12.7% from January to November 2021, while the market penetration of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of last year was only 5.4%.
According to Cui Dongshu's judgment, the year-on-year growth of new energy vehicles in 2021 is nearly twofold, of which the sales volume in the fourth quarter reached about 1.3 million. Based on the above data, it is estimated that the normal scale of new energy vehicles in 2022 should be 5.2 million, superimposed with a slight increase in the market, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to reach 6 million, That is, the permeability should be about 22%.
there is pressure in the industrial chain, but it does not affect the demand
Although the market is extremely optimistic about the expectations of new energy vehicles, it can not be ignored that the shortage of chips is still the pressure that new energy vehicles need to face in 2022. In addition, the decline of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) subsidies and the rise of upstream lithium battery costs have made Tesla, Volkswagen, GAC AIAN, Nezha and other auto enterprises successively announce to raise prices in 2022.
According to the recent report of Euler Hermes, a trade credit insurance company, chip manufacturers are growing rapidly during the epidemic period, and the strong momentum in the semiconductor field will continue until 2022. It is predicted that global semiconductor sales are expected to increase by another 9% and exceed US $600 billion for the first time in 2022.
In terms of lithium batteries, according to the financial Associated Press reporter from the industrial chain, the top lithium battery enterprises have raised prices one after another. According to different customers and the signing of previous agreements, the price increase range is also different. The reason for the price increase is that the price of lithium battery materials increases sharply in 2021 and the demand is stronger than expected.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the automotive industry innovation research center of Northern University of technology, told the financial associated press that the problems of lack of core and lithium battery in the new energy vehicle market will still exist in 2022. However, with the normalization of demand growth and the acceleration of new production capacity, it is optimistic that the problem of lack of core and lithium battery will be alleviated by the second half of 2022.
In view of whether the price rise of lithium batteries and other links will curb the demand for new energy vehicles, the views of some expert meetings show that new energy vehicles are in a stage of market penetration and market cultivation. At this stage, the transmission of costs is not borne by consumers, but by investors in the secondary market or primary market, In other words, vehicle enterprises are still concerned about monthly sales data and market penetration data at this stage, rather than profit.
"The price of chips, batteries, lithium salts and other factors may still become a constraint on the new energy vehicle market in the short term. The normalization of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the international political and economic environment have led to a sharp rise in the cost of raw materials all over the world. It is difficult to accurately estimate the scope and duration of the impact of these factors on the new energy vehicle market." However, Qian Wenying also said that in the long run, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market is the general trend, and these problems can not hinder the development of new energy vehicles.
In Zhang Xiang's view, due to the serious overcapacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars, most car companies should not raise prices considering the competitiveness of products, and a small number of car companies such as Tesla may raise prices. Therefore, the rising price of the industrial chain will not curb the demand for new energy vehicles as a whole.
The subsidy standard for new energy vehicles declined by 30%. The survey found that the vast majority of vehicle enterprises were not in a hurry to raise prices
CITIC: the decline of subsidies is in line with expectations, and the high prosperity of new energy vehicle industry will continue (with shares)
(Financial Associated Press)
