Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, high-end stocks fell continuously, undervalued varieties were favored by funds, and the transformation of market style has been started. The annual report market gradually kicked off, and attention can be paid at the same time.
Affected by the decline in the peripheral market, A-Shares opened low this morning. After the intraday shock fell, they bottomed out and picked up, temporarily stopping the continuous downward trend. On the disk, the previously strong yuan universe plate once fell sharply, the track stocks rebounded, and the salt lake lithium plate rose sharply. The overall performance of undervalued blue chips was stable, with construction, steel, building materials and other sectors leading the gains. Despite the decline throughout the day, about 3000 stocks in the market rose, and the signs of short-term rebound are more obvious.
Since the new year, the market has fallen continuously, mainly due to the following reasons: on the one hand, the reduction of the central bank’s reverse repurchase has a certain impact on the capital level; On the other hand, China Mobile’s listing has a diversion impact on market funds; In addition, what is important is the style shift caused by the position adjustment and stock exchange of market funds. In addition, the fluctuation of the peripheral market also has an impact on the market to a certain extent.
In the recent decline, some phenomena still need to be paid attention to: first, track stocks fell collectively. Heavyweights on the gem fell sharply, with an adjustment range of nearly 10% in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 3 days. Individual stocks such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) also fell collectively. In addition to the continuous downturn of track stocks such as new energy, some stocks in Maomao plate also fell sharply. Oral Maomao Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) and ophthalmic Maomao Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) also fell sharply during the session, and both stocks hit a new low in this round of adjustment; Secondly, undervalued blue chips performed stably. Steel, construction, building materials and other sectors were among the top gainers. In addition, yesterday’s banks and the securities sector that led the index to clear the pass earlier, in fact, the overall performance of blue chips was eye-catching; In addition, the annual report market expectations. For example, Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) with a maximum net profit loss of more than 2 billion was once close to the limit, but the varieties with strong performance expectations began to perform frequently recently, or rehearse the annual report market in advance.
On the whole, the decline of high-level stocks and the recovery of low-level blue chips in the second half of the fourth quarter of last year show that the market style is continuously changing, that is, high-level and overvalued varieties continue to fall, while the bottom of the undervalued plate gradually rises. On the premise that value stocks fell last year, there is a momentum of return this year. The transformation of this style has a lot to do with the current policy shift. Especially after the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the monetary easing cycle has kicked off, and the valuation of blue chips and the expectation of make-up rise have gradually increased, which may also lead to the position adjustment and stock exchange of funds. In addition, the annual report market is imminent, and the varieties with good performance pre increase are also the main position of the annual stage market.
As for the market, the current valuation of all A-Shares is not high, and under the stable fundamentals, the expectation of loose liquidity is also increasing, and the overall good trend of the market has not changed. Periodic adjustment is still a good time for bargain hunting to configure the spring market. There is no need to worry too much about the continuous correction in the beginning of the year. Under the support of the steady growth policy, the overall falling space of the market is limited.
(Jufeng Finance)
