What happened? He's changed again!
At the end of 2020, Jin Zicai, the assistant general manager and fund manager of CAITONG fund, who was previously famous for his heavy position in TMT, made great efforts to layout the cycle sector, which attracted market attention. Since the beginning of 2022, when most funds have been adjusted, many funds managed by Jin Zicai have risen against the trend, and there is a large deviation between the actual net value of the fund and the estimated net value, which means that Jin Zicai has made another large position adjustment. What direction is he aiming at this time?
Taking the value momentum of CAITONG managed by jinzicai as an example, on the first trading day of 2022, several heavy positions held by jinzicai at the end of the third quarter of last year suffered a sharp decline, Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) fell by more than 12%, and Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) also fell by more than 9%. However, the net value of CAITONG value momentum fund increased by 3.52%.
A similar situation also occurred on January 5. On that day, the estimated net value of CAITONG value momentum fell by 1.98%, but the actual net value only fell by 0.22%.
In the post bar of CAITONG value momentum, the fundamentalists talked one after another. On the evening of January 4, a netizen said: "I haven't reduced the warehouse. Ha ha ha, you cow. Finally, when you broke out, the deviation reached 5%. I don't know what you adjusted."
Witty netizens began to guess the direction of Jin Zicai's warehouse adjustment. A netizen sent a document saying: "it must have changed the warehouse of animal husbandry and pig raising plate." Some netizens also showed the comparison between CAITONG's value momentum and Guotai Zhongzheng animal husbandry ETF. The results showed that the two trends were quite similar.
From the market performance, jinzicai is indeed very likely to transfer its warehouse to the breeding sector. On the one hand, from January 4 to January 5, the aquaculture sector performed better. On January 4, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) increased by more than 6%.
On the other hand, from Jin Zicai's internal sharing, He made it clear: "agriculture is currently hovering at the bottom, and it may not be far from the bottom. Its structural upward opportunity or probability began to appear gradually in the second quarter of this year. The clearing of the supply of the breeding sector may have reached the medium term, and may reach the critical point in six months, but the inflection point of stock price may appear ahead of the inflection point of supply and demand."
Why did Jin Zicai's position adjustment attract market attention? He was famous for his huge excess returns in technology stocks. However, at the end of 2020, several chemical stocks were rare among the top ten heavy positions of the fund he managed. From the situation of the whole year of 2021, he adjusted the position structure, but still focused on the layout of periodic plates. In terms of fund returns, CAITONG's momentum return on value was close to 30% last year.
The signal conveyed by Jin Zicai's action is thought-provoking. Is the opportunity for the breeding sector really coming?
Huang Yue, manager of Qianhai open source fund, said that firstly, compared with 2021, more high-quality investment opportunities may emerge in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry in 2022. Considering that the weight of the breeding sector in the agricultural sector is relatively large, and this year is likely to usher in the inflection point of the pig cycle, which will drive the whole sector out of a strong market. Since 2006, China has experienced four rounds of pig cycle. The duration of the first three rounds ranges from 46 months to 49 months. This round of pig cycle has lasted 41 months since June 2018. Therefore, in terms of time span, the pig cycle caused by African swine fever will probably reach the end of the decline cycle at some time this year, and then usher in a new round of rise cycle.
From the important indicators for monitoring the trend of pig prices, the current stock of fertile sows in China is about 44 million, which has recovered to the high level before the outbreak of African swine fever, and has decreased month on month since July 2020, and the pig food ratio has reached the historical bottom of 5:1. Although pig prices have rebounded significantly since October last year, the pattern of oversupply in the whole industry has not changed. It is expected that with the end of the peak consumption season around the Spring Festival, pig prices will still fall, but the probability of falling below the previous low is still low. The performance loss and capacity elimination caused by the low pig price are expected to reach the extreme point in the second half of this year. After that, the whole industry may usher in an inflection point and start a new round of rising cycle.
(Shanghai Securities News)
