In recent days, international oil prices have fallen sharply in a row, and car owners are still secretly happy: will China’s refined oil prices rise less, not rise or even fall?
The answer is No. Because the oil price adjustment is based on the average price every ten working days, not simply determined by the changes in international oil prices a few days before the price adjustment.
According to the national development and Reform Commission, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today (March 17). At that time, the price of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of China will rise to about 8.6 yuan per liter, and No. 95 gasoline will basically enter the “9 yuan era”.
Due to the expected rise in oil prices, there was a long queue at gas stations all over the country last night.
China’s refined oil prices have risen for six consecutive days, and the cost of fuel vehicles has risen, resulting in a phenomenon – the recent surge in sales of new energy vehicles. At the same time, some new energy vehicle enterprises have increased their prices intensively recentlyP align = “center” finished product oil price “six consecutive rises”
According to the national development and Reform Commission, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today (March 17). According to the monitoring of the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission, the international oil price surged and fell during the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (March 3-march 16). On average, WTI oil prices in London, Brent and New York rose sharply by 13.32% over the previous round of price adjustment cycle. Affected by this, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel in China increased accordingly.
In this oil price adjustment, China’s gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively.
National average: 0.59 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline; 95 gasoline will be increased by 0.62 yuan per liter; 0 diesel increased by 0.62 yuan per liter. According to the estimation of 50L capacity of general household automobile fuel tank, filling a box of No. 92 gasoline will cost 29.5 yuan more.
This round is the fifth price adjustment in 2022, and it is also the “five consecutive rises” in the year. Superimposed on a price rise at the end of December last year, China’s refined oil prices have “risen for six consecutive days”P align = “center” source: China Central Television Finance
The price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission predicts that both supply and demand factors will affect oil prices in the short term, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still the biggest uncertain factor affecting oil prices. On the whole, the oil price will mainly operate in shock in the later stage. If Russia and Ukraine reach an armistice agreement, there is still room for a large decline in oil priceP align = “center” recently, the international oil price has dropped. Why did p align = “center” raise the price of refined oil
According to the website of the national development and Reform Commission, China’s refined oil prices have been raised according to the mechanism since 24:00 today. In this regard, the reporter interviewed relevant responsible comrades of the national development and Reform Commission.
Q: how has the international oil price changed since this year
answer: since the beginning of this year, the global oil market has been tight in supply and demand, geopolitical events have occurred frequently, and international oil prices have continued to rise. Taking Brent crude oil futures price as an example (the same below), it was US $96.8 per barrel on February 23, up 22.6% over the beginning of the year. After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on February 24, the international oil price soared rapidly. On March 7, it once exceeded US $139 per barrel, a 13 year high. After that, it fell again. At present, it has fallen to about US $100 per barrel, which is still higher than the level before the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict.
Q: the international oil price has dropped recently. Why do you still raise the price of refined oil
answer: according to the relevant provisions of the measures for the administration of oil prices, the maximum retail price of refined oil in China is adjusted every 10 working days. How to adjust the price each time depends mainly on the comparison between the average value of international oil prices in the 10 working days before the price adjustment and the average value in the 10 working days before the price adjustment. It is not simply determined by the changes of international oil prices in the days before the price adjustment. After the last price adjustment (March 3), the international oil price jumped sharply. Although it has dropped recently, according to comprehensive calculation, the average value in recent 10 working days is still significantly higher than that in the previous period.
As China’s refined oil price adjustment is linked to the average international oil price in the first 10 working days, there have been many sharp increases in international oil price before the price adjustment day, but China’s refined oil price has been reduced in the current period. For example, December 17, 2021 is the price adjustment day. In the previous two working days, the international oil price has risen continuously, but in the current period, China’s gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively. Similar situations occurred on July 26, March 31, 2021 and September 18, 2020.
Q: if international oil prices continue to rise, how will China’s refined oil prices adjust
answer: when the international oil price continues to rise, but does not exceed US $130 per barrel, China’s refined oil price will be adjusted normally according to the mechanism; If it is higher than 130 US dollars per barrel, in accordance with the provisions of the measures for the administration of oil prices and the principle of giving consideration to the interests of producers and consumers and maintaining the stable operation of the national economy, appropriate fiscal and tax policies shall be adopted to ensure the production and supply of refined oil, and the prices of gasoline and diesel shall not be raised or reduced in principleP align = “center” new energy vehicle sales surged by 1.5 times, and vehicle enterprises intensively raised prices
With the rising oil prices, is it more cost-effective to drive an electric car? Many consumers have made a choice.
On March 11, the data released by China Automobile Industry Association showed that in the first two months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 820000 and 765000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times respectively, and the market share of new energy vehicles was 17.9%.
With the growth of sales, the price of new energy vehicles is also rising. Affected by factors such as the supply chain, many new energy brands have recently raised their prices by thousands to tens of thousands of yuan.
On March 15, the reporter of “daily economic news” checked Tesla China’s official website and found that the selling price of domestic model y long-range and high-performance models increased from 357900 yuan and 397900 yuan to 375900 yuan and 417900 yuan respectively, up 18000 yuan and 20000 yuan respectively; The price of the rear wheel drive model y remains unchanged. Earlier on March 10, the price of model 3 high-performance version, model y long-range and high-performance version increased by 10000 yuan.
On March 17, after only two days, the price of domestic Tesla rose again. According to Tesla China’s official website, the price of rear wheel drive model y increased to 316900 yuan, an increase of 15060 yuan. The selling price of model y long endurance and high-performance version remains unchanged.
So far, the price of all models of Tesla domestic model 3 and model y has increasedP align = “center” price screenshot of model y rear wheel drive version on Tesla’s official website
On the evening of March 15, Byd Company Limited(002594) officials also announced that affected by the continuous sharp rise in the price of raw materials, Byd Company Limited(002594) cars will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com by 3000 ~ 6000 yuan. For details, please consult the local dealers of Byd Company Limited(002594) cars.
This is the second price adjustment of new energy models since Byd Company Limited(002594) this year. In January this year, Byd Company Limited(002594) also announced that due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, it would adjust the official guided prices of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com by 1000 ~ 7000 yuan.
“The new energy market is in good condition, and there will be car enterprises announcing price increases next.” Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, believes that the price rise of raw materials for new energy vehicles is a cyclical behavior. At present, the general increase of vehicle prices is also a reflection of responding to the rise of raw material prices.
How much can the cost of new energy vehicles be saved? According to the previous calculation of the city express, if there is a household charging pile, the cost is basically about 5 cents per kilometer. According to 20000 kilometers a year, the electricity charge is only 1000 yuan. The charging cost on the public charging pile is higher, 0.15 yuan per kilometer, which costs about 3000 yuan. In addition, parking fees and service fees will be charged for public charging piles, about 1000 yuan. In general, the cost of electric vehicles for 20000 kilometers a year is 1 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 0 yuan.
The cost of fuel vehicles is much higher. According to the 2.5L naturally aspirated Camry, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is about 8.5 liters, while the fuel cost per kilometer of No. 92 oil price is 0.68 yuan, and the fuel cost of 20000 kilometers a year is about 13600 yuan.
Another advantage of electric vehicles is the low maintenance cost. Due to the long maintenance interval and few maintenance items (there is no routine maintenance such as changing the oil filter), about 500 yuan a year is enough. The average annual maintenance cost of Camry’s comprehensive small maintenance and large maintenance is about 2000 yuan.
But fuel car premiums are cheaper. In one year, electric vehicles can save 11000 yuan compared with fuel vehicles.
It is worth noting that due to technological progress and tight delivery of new vehicles, the hedging rate of electric vehicles continues to improve, but it is still not optimistic. The average hedging rate of electric vehicles is only 51%, while the three-year hedging rate of Mercedes Benz C-class, BMW 3-Series and other intermediate vehicles can reach about 75%. If it is a used car that has been licensed for five years, the preservation rate of electric vehicles and oil vehicles is about 30% and 50%.
Are you going to line up to refuel this evening?
