Recently, affected by the international situation, aluminum prices continue to fluctuate. Many investors asked on the interactive platform about the impact of the rapid rise of aluminum and other bulk prices on listed companies?
According to the reporter of Securities Daily, some listed companies said to reduce risks through hedging; Some listed companies said that the company may benefit from the rise in aluminum prices.
international situation affects aluminum price fluctuation
In February this year, affected by the international situation, commodity and European energy prices rose rapidly. Affected by market sentiment, aluminum price volatility intensified.
From the recent performance, on March 16, Lun aluminum rebounded and soared. LME three-month aluminum was reported at $3338 / ton at 15:01 Beijing time, up $40 or 1.20% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. From the perspective of China’s disk, on March 16, the main contract 2204 of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21235 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 22100 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 21235 yuan / ton, and closed at 21960 yuan / ton, up 235 yuan or 1.08% compared with the closing price of the previous trading day. On the morning of March 17, Shanghai aluminum 2204 opened at 21895 yuan / ton, hitting a high of 22250 yuan / ton in the morning. As of the morning closing, Shanghai aluminum 2204 rose 2.61%.
Hu Qimu, chief researcher of Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily: “Russia is an important aluminum production base in the world. 6% of the global aluminum production comes from Russia. In 2018, the United States sanctioned Rusal, and the international aluminum price once rose by 30%. Recently, Shanghai aluminum has been subject to strong shocks, and Europe has implemented a new investment ban on Russia, which has promoted the further rise of energy costs and pushed up the aluminum price.”
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out in the research report that recently, there are signs of easing the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the market risk sentiment has dropped, but there is still great uncertainty, which does not rule out the possibility of further sanctions against Rusal in Europe and the United States.
Maike futures said that the recent spread of the epidemic in China’s Yangtze River Delta and South China and the fall of energy prices led to the consolidation of weak aluminum prices. From the perspective of price difference and position, the price difference has been gradually narrowed due to internal and external rebalancing. But basically, the shortage of overseas supply continues, and China’s spot support appears.
global aluminum supply and demand gap will still expand
From the perspective of supply and demand, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s primary aluminum output was 6.33 million tons from January to February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. However, the average daily aluminum production in the two months was 107000 tons, the highest level since June 2021.
Although the output of primary aluminum decreased year-on-year, the production capacity of 1.4 million tons has been restarted since the fourth quarter of last year. Yunnan will have a production capacity of at least 500000 tons / year in March. Some downstream enterprises in Guangdong said that Yunnan smelters have begun to look for buyers Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) 3 on March 17, the company said on the investor interaction platform that at present, the power supply situation in Yunnan Province is gradually improving, and the company is accelerating the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production.
Hu Qimu said, “the current market operation situation is mainly affected by the impact of the supply side, so the trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has an important impact on the future trend of aluminum prices. It is necessary to observe the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and the substitution of aluminum production capacity in other regions”.
CICC Securities pointed out in the research report that China’s electrolytic aluminum has expanded profits and high enthusiasm for resumption of production. According to the balance of supply and demand, if the supply and demand impact caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not considered, the new supply planned this year will mainly come from the increase and resumption of production of smelters in South America, Russia, Malaysia and China, but the global supply and demand gap is still larger than that in 2021. At present, Chinalco has high cash profit and great enthusiasm for resumption of production. According to WoodMac, up to now, China has 880000 tons of production capacity, which may contribute to China’s increment in the second quarter. However, we believe that the resumption of production in China is difficult to make up for the reduction of production in Europe and the supply risk in Russia. Although the demand side lags behind due to the high price, there has been no substantial demand destruction. Based on the current situation, we believe that the global aluminum supply and demand gap will continue to expand in 2022.
some listed companies in aluminum industry chain are expected to benefit
It is worth mentioning that the current high price of overseas aluminum has a different impact on upstream and downstream companies in the industrial chain. Companies using Rusal as raw materials may be affected to some extent, but aluminum manufacturers are expected to benefit from the rise in aluminum prices. Some listed companies believe that due to the rise of aluminum price, the increase of demand for new energy vehicles and the development of recycled aluminum industry, the relevant business of the company will be better than that in 2021 Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) 3 on March 17, the company said that the recent price fluctuations of copper, aluminum and other bulk commodities are of great concern to the company and will consider using reasonable methods, including hedging, to avoid the risks caused by price fluctuations.
According to the business data announcement released by power investment energy on March 15, the operating revenue from January to February 2022 was about 4.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 25.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 80.19%. Kaiyuan Securities said in the research report that power investment energy achieved a good start from January to February, or mainly benefited from the rise in coal and aluminum prices.
Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) Board Secretary Li Zhiguo said in an interview with Securities Daily: “Judging from the recent situation outside China, foreign aluminum will remain at a high level within a certain period of time. Due to the tension between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has cut off the supply of natural gas transmission in Europe, resulting in the European energy crisis, which has reduced the production of European aluminum smelters, so the foreign aluminum price may continue to rise. Due to the regulation of China’s stable growth policy, China’s aluminum may not increase significantly, and the price may remain at 21000 yuan / ton – 22000 yuan About yuan / ton. “
“The company’s aluminum alloy wheel sector has a large export business, accounting for 60%. The wheel price is priced by overseas aluminum, and China aluminum is used for production. The price difference between them has a relatively positive impact on the company.” Li Zhiguo further said.
