“is your tank full?”
China’s retail price limit of refined oil has risen again. According to the national development and Reform Commission, since 24:00 on March 17, China’s gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively
Since the 16th, many gas stations have been queuing up for refueling for a whole day. The greetings of riders have become, “is the fuel tank full?”. After the price adjustment, the retail price limit of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country is 8.4-8.6 yuan / liter. Calculated by ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, owners will spend about 30 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil. At the same time, after the price adjustment, the running of No. 95 gasoline in most parts of China has entered the “9 yuan era”.
The rising oil price has directly pushed up the daily commuting cost of fuel vehicles, making more consumers who hold money and wait-and-see begin to consider buying domestic new energy vehicles. The rapid rise in the price of traditional oil and gas energy is also promoting overseas countries to accelerate the transformation to scenery renewable energy, driving the hot photovoltaic track in China. The price of domestic silicon has risen for nine consecutive weeks this year.
oil prices have risen for five consecutive years this year, and a box of oil will cost 30 yuan more
On March 17, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice that according to the current price formation mechanism of refined oil, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China will increase by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on March 17. After the price adjustment, the retail price limit of No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country is 8.4-8.6 yuan / liter. Calculated by ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, owners will spend about 30 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil.
In terms of specific regions, No. 89 gasoline in Beijing was adjusted from 7.53 yuan per liter to 8.09 yuan, an increase of 0.56 yuan; 92 gasoline was adjusted from 8.05 yuan per liter to 8.65 yuan, an increase of 0.60 yuan; 95 gasoline was adjusted from 8.56 yuan per liter to 9.21 yuan, an increase of 0.65 yuan; No. 0 diesel oil was adjusted from 7.77 yuan per liter to 8.39 yuan, an increase of 0.62 yuan. Based on the calculation of ordinary private cars with a fuel capacity of 50 litres, after the price adjustment, owners will spend about 30 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel.
This round is the fifth price adjustment this year and the first “five consecutive rises”. Superimposed on a price rise at the end of December last year, China’s refined oil price has “risen for six consecutive times”, setting the largest increase record since the new pricing mechanism in 2013. After the price adjustment, the No. 95 gasoline in most parts of China has entered the “9 yuan era”.
Since the beginning of this year, the supply and demand of the global oil market has been tight, geopolitical events have occurred frequently, and international oil prices have continued to rise. Taking Brent crude oil futures price as an example (the same below), it was US $96.8 per barrel on February 23, up 22.6% from the beginning of the year. After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on February 24, the international oil price soared rapidly. On March 7, it once exceeded US $139 per barrel, a 13 year high. After that, it fell again. At present, it has fallen to about US $100 per barrel, which is still higher than the level before the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict.
The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on March 31, 2022. According to the analysis of Longzhong information, the price of China’s refined oil market fell slightly after the rapid rise, but it showed an upward trend as a whole. Although the temperature in both north and South has picked up, the spread of the epidemic in all parts of China has increased recently, the epidemic control has been upgraded, and the demand for gasoline and diesel has been restrained. Based on the current international crude oil price level, the start of the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a downward trend. It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment falling is high.
international crude oil once fell below US $100. Why has China been rising? NDRC response
At the time of this oil price adjustment, the international oil price continued to fall from the high of US $130 in a week, falling below US $100 / barrel. Why did the international crude oil fall by US $30 and why is China still rising?
In response, on the afternoon of March 17, the national development and Reform Commission answered a reporter’s question on the price adjustment of refined oil, saying that when the international oil price continues to rise, but does not exceed US $130 per barrel, China’s refined oil price will be adjusted normally according to the mechanism; If it is higher than 130 US dollars per barrel, in accordance with the provisions of the measures for the administration of oil prices and the principle of giving consideration to the interests of producers and consumers and maintaining the stable operation of the national economy, appropriate fiscal and tax policies shall be adopted to ensure the production and supply of refined oil, and the prices of gasoline and diesel shall not be raised or reduced in principle.
According to the relevant provisions of the measures for the administration of oil prices, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in China are adjusted every 10 working days according to the changes of crude oil prices in the international market. As of March 17, there have been five price adjustment windows this year. The national gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 1875 yuan and 1805 yuan per ton respectively, up 21% and 23% respectively over the beginning of the year. Among them, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively.
Although the international oil price jumped sharply after the last price adjustment (March 3), and has dropped recently, according to comprehensive calculation, the average value in recent 10 working days is still significantly higher than that in the previous period. As China’s refined oil price adjustment is linked to the average international oil price in the first 10 working days, there have been many sharp increases in international oil price before the price adjustment day, but China’s refined oil price has been reduced in the current period.
For example, December 17, 2021 is the price adjustment day. In the previous two working days, the international oil price has risen continuously, but in the current period, China’s gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton respectively. Similar situations occurred on July 26, March 31, 2021 and September 18, 2020.
Zhuo Chuang information data show that since this pricing cycle, international oil prices have risen first and then fell, with a large fluctuation range. Brent crude oil first rose by 28% in six trading days and then fell by 24% in six trading days. This huge adjustment directly compressed the rise of China’s price.
oil prices are rising and domestic new energy vehicles are accelerating
At present, the hottest piece is “92 full, heavily in debt; 95 full, directly bankrupt; 98 full, three generations of repayment.” Although the statement is exaggerated, it also shows that the continuous rise of oil prices has made consumers worried.
The rise in oil prices has indeed made consumers who hold money and wait-and-see begin to consider buying domestic new energy vehicles. According to the data released by the passenger Federation, in mid February 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market were 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2 times and 1.8 times respectively.
In terms of market share, from January to February this year, the market share of new energy vehicles was 17.9%. Specifically, in the first two months of this year, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 652000 and 604000 respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 168000 and 160000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8 times and 2.5 times respectively.
Chinese automobile enterprises actively deployed new energy vehicles, and the share of Chinese brands continued to rise. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 1.637 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% and the market share was 44.6%; German and Japanese market share continued to decline.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Transport Federation, said: “this year, China’s oil price hit a new high in March for nearly 10 years. The rising oil price directly pushed up the daily commuting cost of fuel vehicles, and continued to expand the base level for the further promotion of new energy and even oil electric hybrid technology.”
Although oil prices are becoming more and more expensive, buying new energy vehicles is not necessarily a better choice – with the rise in oil prices, the prices of new energy vehicles are also rising. Due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, Tesla has raised the price of all its models twice in the week since March 10, with an increase of 2 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 000 yuan. China Xiaopeng automobile (09868. HK), Nezha automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ) and other new energy vehicle brands have also completed price increases recently. It seems to be a dilemma whether to choose an oil-fired vehicle or a new energy vehicle.
Yin bin, an analyst at Huaxin securities, believes that after a round of price increase, the cost side constraints of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles are expected to be marginal eased. However, in the future, the industrial chain differentiation and profit distribution of new energy vehicles will be the key points of the industrial chain game in 2022, which will also show the characteristics of the game in the secondary market. “We continue to be optimistic about high nickel ternary, diaphragm, power battery and some of them α High quality leading assets. “
photovoltaic polysilicon prices rose for 9 consecutive weeks, and the theme of “carbon neutralization” is in the ascendant
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has boosted the continuous rise of energy prices, with natural gas and oil prices hitting recent highs. The rapid rise in the price of traditional energy will also promote overseas countries to accelerate the transformation to scenery renewable energy, driving the hot photovoltaic track in China. The price of domestic silicon has risen for nine consecutive weeks this year.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) analyst Yang Guoping believes that looking back on history, international crude oil prices rose sharply during the two Chechen wars, and the rise continued until the war. In the short three months after the war, the price of natural gas also rose by more than 60% and increased by more than 80% before and after the war. According to the price performance of energy products before and after the Chechen War, the price of energy products in Russia and Ukraine is still likely to remain high after the war. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe is eager to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas, which will bring long-term benefits to the photovoltaic sector. It is suggested to pay attention to photovoltaic industry, carbon neutral and related funds.
It is worth noting that in the capital market, the photovoltaic industry and carbon neutralization are both large theme investments, including a large number of subdivided industries and great differences in landscape, which have high requirements on the investment rhythm. Ordinary investors are more suitable to pay attention to bargain hunting through ETF products such as new energy vehicle ETF (515030) and carbon neutralization ETF (159790).
The average price of polysilicon in China has risen sharply since the price of polysilicon reached 78000 tons in the past three consecutive weeks of 2020. According to the average price of polysilicon in the past three consecutive weeks, the average price of polysilicon in China has risen sharply since the price of polysilicon reached 78000 tons in 2020.
Driven by rising prices, more enterprises have entered the industry. The disclosure announcement of China’s A-share listed companies shows that more and more enterprises have entered the silicon material business across borders. According to incomplete statistics, since last December alone, five enterprises have announced investment in polysilicon and industrial silicon, with an investment scale of more than 10 billion. In addition, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) recently announced that polysilicon projects will be put into operation, with planned investment amounts of 17.6 billion yuan and 17.5 billion yuan respectively. Obviously, the recent continuous rise of silicon materials has gradually shaken the previous view of generally bearish silicon prices. More and more people believe that the “tight balance” situation of silicon materials will not be alleviated until at least 2023.
