Event overview
On March 16, the main indexes of the A-share market rose sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index and gem index rose 3.48%, 4.02%, 4.32% and 5.20% respectively. Today, various ministries and commissions held a meeting led by the financial commission of the State Council, which was the main reason for the rebound in the A-share market.
Analysis and judgment:
\u3000\u3000？ The meeting of the financial committee of the State Council was held, which exceeded the market expectations, mainly reflected in three points: 1) the main body of the meeting was at a high level and was led by the financial committee of the State Council; 2) The meeting discussed the fundamental problems that make the market hesitate at present, and gave timely response and clear solutions; 3) The meeting mentioned that “the financial commission of the State Council will strengthen coordination and communication according to the requirements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and be accountable when necessary”, which will help to implement the subsequent policies to stabilize the stability of the capital market.
\u3000\u3000？ The meeting of the finance committee made timely responses to the hot issues concerned by the market, including: 1) to “maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations”, relevant departments should actively introduce policies beneficial to the market and carefully introduce contractive policies; 2) In terms of capital, the meeting mentioned that “long-term institutional investors are welcome to increase their shareholding ratio, monetary policy should take the initiative to deal with it, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth”; 3) With regard to real estate, the meeting mentioned the need to “timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model”; 4) With regard to zhonggai shares, the meeting mentioned “steadily promote and complete the rectification of large platform companies as soon as possible to promote the stable and healthy development of platform economy”; 5) On the stability of Hong Kong’s financial market, the meeting mentioned that “the regulators of the mainland and Hong Kong should strengthen communication and cooperation”.
\u3000\u3000？ After the special meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council was held, the “one bank, two sessions” also held a meeting, and made corresponding arrangements for the implementation. 1) The statement of the CSRC continued the contents of the meeting of the Finance Committee, Including “fully maintaining the stable operation of the capital market, vigorously promoting the improvement of the quality of listed companies, encouraging listed companies to increase their holdings and repurchase, guiding fund companies to purchase their own shares, improving the system and mechanism conducive to the participation of long-term institutional investors in the capital market, supporting all kinds of qualified enterprises to list abroad, actively cooperating with relevant departments, and effectively resolving the risks of real estate enterprises”; 2) The central bank mentioned: “monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth”; 3) The cbcirc mentioned “guiding insurance institutions to allocate more funds to equity assets”; 4) In addition, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said on the pilot of real estate tax reform: “there are no conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year”.
Investment suggestions:
China’s “policy bottom” has been basically proved, and A-Shares are expected to start a round of “oversold” rebound under the protection of policies. The meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, the “one bank, two sessions” and the statement of the Ministry of Finance on the reform of real estate tax are a set of policy combination boxing, which helps to repair the pessimism of investors. After the “policy bottom” is proved, the market bottom is not too far away. The Shanghai index may form a relatively solid bottom near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points, and A-Shares are expected to open a round of “oversold” rebound. On the one hand, the height and sustainability of the rebound depend on the sustainability of China’s care policies; On the other hand, it depends on peripheral factors such as the pace of the Fed’s table contraction and geographical relations. In terms of industry allocation, from the perspective of “oversold” rebound, it is preferred to have more early decline and high performance β Growth sectors, such as “new energy and Electronics”; In addition, pay attention to the “real estate” that benefits from the postponement of the real estate tax reform pilot.
Risk tips
Geopolitical risk escalation, sharp fluctuations in overseas markets, overseas Black Swan incident, etc.
