Massive rebound! On Thursday, the three major A-share indexes were all red, and the volume could be enlarged. Can the market continue to strengthen after a continuous rebound? Where are the investment opportunities of a shares? It has become the focus of discussion.
On Thursday (March 17), the three major A-share indexes rose by more than 1%. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4% to 321504 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.41% to 1228997 points, and the gem index rose 2.87% to 271073 points; Stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose, with a total turnover of 1275.4 billion yuan, exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the third consecutive trading day; Northbound funds bought a net 5.365 billion yuan.
On the news front, on March 16 local time, the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement announcing that it would raise the benchmark interest rate to the range of 0.25% – 0.5%. At a news conference held on the same day, Fed chairman Powell said that the Fed would begin to reduce its holdings of nearly $9 trillion of assets on its balance sheet at the next policy meeting. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since December 2018.
In terms of individual stocks, on Thursday, individual stocks in the A-share market generally rose, with a total of 3691 stocks rising. It is noteworthy that on Thursday, 118 stocks closed at the daily limit, of which 19 belong to the real estate industry and 14 belong to the pharmaceutical and biological industry. In addition, only three stocks fell by the limit.
Trading limit of individual stocks on Thursday (March 17): p align = “center” tabulation: Zhang Ying
It is noteworthy that on March 17, the Hong Kong stock market continued to rise sharply. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose by 7.04% and the Hang Seng state-owned enterprises rose by 7.52%; Hang Seng technology rose 7.76%.
For the trend after the stabilization and rebound of a shares, institutions generally said that the rebound market has begun, and the market is expected to stabilize gradually, which is suitable for long-term funds to enter the market.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Chen Guo believes that the current market has high cost performance in the long run and is suitable for the allocation of long-term funds into the market. In the medium term, we still face the impact of adverse external factors such as the Fed’s interest rate hike, the financial turmoil caused by Russia’s default, and the increase in the probability of global stagflation, which needs to be observed. However, at present, investors should not be pessimistic. Under the background of a series of comprehensive improvement of concerns, the market is expected to usher in an oversold rebound and a quarterly report. In terms of industry configuration, the first quarter high boom + marginal improvement sector will be the focus of the current rebound. At present, the market has come to the window period of annual report + quarterly report disclosure, which will verify the high prosperity of high-end manufacturing industry chain. In terms of meso data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February was bright, the demand for photovoltaic in the first quarter was better than expected, and the semiconductor and military industries were still in the high boom range. In addition, the top decline since December last year and the current relatively reasonable valuation quantile were optimistic about their subsequent relative income performance. At the same time, the current positive signals also include the adjustment of monetary policy and epidemic prevention and control policy that is worthy of further expectation.
Galaxy Securities said that the short-term market has a certain opportunity under the catalysis of policy. In the long run, the valuation bubble of the market has been squeezed, and the historical quantile of the full A valuation has dropped to a low level. The longer the time period is, the higher the cost performance is. The importance of value investing is uplifting. With the gradual disclosure of the performance of listed companies, it is possible to assess the value of stocks at a low price.
At the same time, funds, private placement and other institutions also expressed optimistic views on the future market. Hu Po, manager of Rongzhi investment fund under private placement paipai.com, said that with the good news from the regulatory level, the whole A-share has rebounded rapidly. We think the policy bottom has been confirmed, but there may still be some uncertain factors in the short-term market, including the continuous interest rate increase and contraction of the Federal reserve, whether European and American funds will continue to flow out, and whether the recent redemption pressure of the fund will have an impact on the market, These are points that deserve close attention. However, the current position of the whole market has a relatively good allocation value. If there is a callback, it is a good opportunity to increase positions, but in the short term, we still need to wait for the bottom of the market game.
Tong Diyi, general manager of longying fuze assets, believes that the future market can be relatively optimistic for three reasons. First of all, yesterday’s meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council gave positive guidance on monetary policy, real estate and other aspects, which reassured the market; Secondly, after this wave of adjustment, the market risk has been greatly released. From the perspective of valuation, many industry leaders have been very attractive; Thirdly, from the perspective of larger and more productive period, China is still a large country with faster development and more potential in the world, and the Chinese market is still worthy of long-term investment in the coming years.
Zhu Liang, director of Danyi investment, said that most of the whole decline stage may have passed. It can’t be said that it is now 100% bottom, but it shouldn’t be too far from the bottom range or time. Out of concern about stagflation and subsequent inflation, the possibility of V-shaped reversal is also very low. After stabilizing, there is a high probability that some differentiated markets will come out.
In terms of specific hot spots, on Thursday, the real estate service sector led the rise, and the sectors such as rental and sale rights, electronic chemicals, property management, photoresist, transfer and filling rights and covid-19 treatment were active; Securities, silicon energy, port shipping, fuel ethanol and other sectors fell slightly. Today, Tengyuan cobalt industry landed on the gem, up 6.81%; Geling deep pupil landed on the scientific innovation board, down 5.14%.
hot spot I: pharmaceutical stocks revel again, 14 shares limit
On Thursday, pharmaceutical concept stocks rose one after another, ranking among the highest, with the most dazzling performance. As of the closing, covid-19 drugs (4.97%), anticancer drugs (4.19%), traditional Chinese medicine (3.95%) and other sectors had the highest gains. In the Shenwan level biomedical industry, 14 stocks rose by the limit. Among them, Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300039) , Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) and other four shares were 20cm limit.
On the news, the National Health Council released the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). In order to further improve the medical treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia and improve the level of standardized and homogeneous diagnosis and treatment, the national health and Health Commission and the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) organized experts to amend the diagnosis and treatment plan for New Coronavirus pneumonia (revised version 8 of the trial version), and formed the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth), which was issued and implemented around the country. The new diagnosis and treatment plan is formed on the basis of careful study on the transmission characteristics and case characteristics of variant strains such as delta and Omicron, and in-depth analysis of relevant research results.
For the investment in pharmaceutical stocks, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analysis shows that the adjustment of covid-19 diagnosis and treatment scheme reflects China’s phased achievements in covid-19 detection, covid-19 specific drug R & D and approval, and the application of characteristic medical treatment such as traditional Chinese medicine. On the other hand, it also adapts to the changes of epidemic characteristics caused by mutant strains. At present, there are abundant R & D pipelines for covid-19 oral drugs and covid-19 vaccines in China. With the readout of clinical data of products under research and approval for listing, we will have a more perfect covid-19 prevention and treatment system. Based on the accessibility and convenience of oral drug use, we hope that Pfizer’s Paxlovid dose in China ( China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) is responsible for the commercial operation in Chinese mainland market). We hope that the follow-up Pfizer’s COVID-19 MPP will bring the performance elasticity to the head of API/CDMO board.
hot spot 2: real estate stocks broke out and 19 stocks rose strongly
On March 17, the real estate sector strengthened significantly. As of the closing, the sector rose by 4.29%, and 19 real estate stocks collectively rose by the limit, of which Shenzhen Sdg Service Co.Ltd(300917) 20cm rose by the limit.
In terms of news, on March 16, the National Bureau of statistics released the house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in February this year. Among them, the sales price of new commercial housing in first tier cities increased by 0.5% month on month, down 0.1 percentage points from January; The price of new houses in second tier cities changed from a month on month increase of 0.1% to flat; The price of new houses in the third tier cities decreased by 0.3% month on month, and the decline was expanded by 0.1 percentage points.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) analysis shows that the valuation of some excellent real estate enterprises is at the PE level of low single digits, and there is still much room for value restoration. In the process of increasing market share, leading real estate companies will have stable and sustainable growth performance. The share price will not rise in retaliation, but will rise very gently and continuously.
In this regard, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that regulators fully understand the credit risks faced by real estate enterprises and attach great importance to resolving risks, which is the basic premise of the soft landing of the real estate market. The next few months are the key time window for ensuring the industry’s credit. Due to the city’s implementation of policies, the continued implementation of demand side support, the changes in real estate market sales and the development of mergers and acquisitions, it is worthy of close observation by investors. Although some enterprises have defaulted, some enterprises are still facing the difficulty of debt extension, and some enterprises may face the challenge of shrinking the table, the policy is expected to strongly support the bottom demand, and there should be no systemic risk in the real estate industry.
