Key points of the report:
Market review:
As of the closing on March 15, the Shanghai index fell 4.95%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.36%, the gem index fell 2.55%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.57%, the Shanghai 50 fell 5.23%, and the China 500 fell 5.67%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 242, lower than the average value of 1780 last week. The net outflow of funds from the North was 16.025 billion yuan, far exceeding the average net outflow of 7.264 billion yuan last week. A shares continued to fall in large quantities, and the market entered an extreme state of panic; On March 16, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the market rose sharply in the afternoon. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.48% to 317071 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.02%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 4.32%, and the gem index rose 5.2%.
By industry, non bank finance performed best in the rebound market, and most brokerage stocks were only close to the daily limit; At the same time, the combination of Mao index and Ning index is also the main force in this rebound, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) up more than 8%. On the whole, the market has a more obvious long mentality after the oversold.
Comments: the internal and external environment is complex, and the recent shock intensified under the joint action of multiple uncertain factors. On the 15th, the oversold: the economic data from January to February came out, and the start was “hard won, and the infrastructure did not live up to expectations. However, the failure of the expectation of interest rate reduction once shook the market’s expectation of” further “stable growth.
At the same time, negative factors that continue to suppress recent market sentiment still exist: high inflation, economic recession and tension between China and the United States derived from the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine; The recent deterioration of the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has curbed the short-term vitality of China’s two most dynamic economic zones, and economic activities are obviously limited; China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks continued to plummet, as well as the defensive mentality accelerated under the tightening of liquidity of the Federal Reserve, with a significant net outflow of funds going north, further dragging down a shares.
Rebound on March 16: on March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to emphasize maintaining the economic operation within a reasonable range, maintaining the stable operation of the capital market and releasing positive signals. The meeting proposed that “relevant departments should actively introduce policies beneficial to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies”, and responded to hot issues such as zhonggai shares, real estate enterprises, platform economic governance and the stability of Hong Kong’s financial market, emphasizing “maintaining the stability and consistency of policy expectations and strengthening communication”. The news of the meeting injected a booster into China’s capital market, which has fallen continuously recently.
At the same time, the latest response of the American public company accounting supervision board (PCAOB) is good, and US stocks have taken the lead in rebounding. The China Securities Regulatory Commission said that “continue to strengthen communication with US regulators and strive to reach an agreement as soon as possible”. Under the background of moderation of regulatory disputes, Hong Kong stocks are obviously relieved today, driving the recovery of a shares.
In addition, up to now, the focus of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has gradually shifted from actual conflict to negotiation game, and the impact on the capital market is relatively moderate; The oil price basically confirmed the top, and the next downward trend will become more and more obvious; There is little suspense about the Fed’s interest rate hike. With sufficient communication, there is no big expectation difference, and the market acceptance is expected to be good.
The risk is gradually relieved, confidence is regained, attention is paid to short-term opportunities, patience is waiting for the continuous layout of the policy, and uncertainty still exists. However, the recent risk is gradually relieved, the official voice maintains stability and confidence, and positive factors are expected to dominate the short-term repair and upward of the market. The above benefits are still effective in the short term, the policy force is not stalled, and confidence is regained and tends to be continued.
It is suggested to pay attention to the following aspects: first, the main line of steady growth is still worth choosing: specifically, it may include “new infrastructure” dominated by “wind and solar energy storage projects in the direction of new energy infrastructure construction”, 5g infrastructure and big data center projects in the direction of digital economy “, and” traditional infrastructure “dominated by” transportation, water conservancy, urban construction and some real estate industry chain related projects “, New and old infrastructure, as the focus of policy, is expected to achieve good performance under the main tone of “steady growth”; Second, the financial sector with undervalued effect is expected to benefit from strengthened policy expectations, improved liquidity and intensified market volatility; Third, the overall growth of science and technology still needs liquidity accumulation, but there is a rebound opportunity in this oversold. Pay attention to the subject matter with strong performance certainty under emotional repair.
Risk tips
The risk of continued escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine; China’s economic downturn exceeds the expected risk; The spread of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
