Plus Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , three companies in the lithium sector have released the operating data of the first two months.
After hours on March 16, Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) announced that from January to February 2022, the company's lithium new energy business achieved an operating revenue of about 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 670%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 3700%.
"The company's performance growth is mainly due to the continuous rapid development of lithium battery new energy industry, which drives the rising price of lithium carbonate." Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) points out.
On the previous day, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) although detailed profit data were not disclosed, the company expects the revenue of lithium concentrate, lithium compounds and their derivatives in the first two months to increase by 366% and 492% year-on-year respectively. For Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , which is also the "double leader of lithium industry", the net profit after deducting non profits in the same period is expected to increase by about 1000%.
Such a considerable growth rate is mainly affected by the low profit base in the first quarter of 2021 and the profit margin growth driven by the absolute high price of lithium salt in the whole industry in the same period of this year.
In terms of the whole new energy industry chain, due to the profit model of the middle and lower reaches and the current pressure stage of rising prices of consumed raw materials, the certainty of profit growth and the elasticity of performance growth may be weaker than that of the upper reaches.
first quarter industry profits continued to rise
Up to now, there are only a limited number of lithium stocks whose performance can be determined. Only Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) disclosed the performance forecast of the first quarter, and "two giants of lithium industry" and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) released the operating data of the first two months.
However, the above announcement is only used to verify the accuracy of performance prediction. It is not difficult to judge the profit trend of cyclical industries through the changes of industry fundamentals.
In terms of the whole lithium salt industry, the prosperity continued to improve in the first quarter of this year.
Taking lithium carbonate as an example, the price of battery grade products in China was about 275000 yuan / ton at the end of 2021, and the latest price was 503000 yuan / ton as of March 16.
The average price of each quarter is, which is 74800 yuan / ton in the first quarter and 210000 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter of 2021. The average price from the beginning of this year to March 16 is 403000 yuan / ton. That is, the average price of electricity and carbon in the first quarter of this year increased by about 438% compared with the same period last year.
Feedback to the revenue side of listed companies, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 1-february lithium compound business revenue increased by 492%, the overall revenue growth of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) over the same period was 260%, and the revenue of Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) lithium battery business increased by about 670% year-on-year.
The main reason is that the growth rate of lithium carbonate is not as good as that of lithium oxide, which is mainly due to the difference in the price of lithium oxide, which accounts for longer than that of lithium oxide.
Let's look at the profit side. According to the continuous data of lithium salt profit tracked by Baichuan Yingfu through the cost profit model, the industry profit in the first quarter of this year continued to expand compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.
Taking the processing enterprises of purchased lithium concentrate as an example, at present, the total amount of lithium concentrate, soda ash, sulfuric acid and coal does not exceed 200000 yuan / ton. If calculated according to the current market price of 500000 yuan / ton, the gross profit of single ton battery grade lithium carbonate can reach about 300000 yuan.
It should be pointed out that the above calculation data is the theoretical value calculated according to the current prices of direct raw materials and auxiliary materials.
When it comes to specific companies, different enterprises have different production processes, different self-sufficiency rates of raw materials and different purchase prices of raw materials, and there will be significant differences in the corresponding profit margin and profit elasticity.
The general direction that can be determined is that the performance elasticity of salt lake lithium extraction enterprises born with low-cost advantages and integrated lithium salt enterprises with shares in mines and self-sufficiency of lithium concentrate will be significantly higher than that of their peers this year.
From the above point of view, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) with some known profit data in the first quarter may not be the company with the most prominent profit growth in the lithium sector, and it is not ruled out that there will be higher profit growth in the later period.
In addition, the lithium price has just rebounded in the first quarter of 2021, the profitability of lithium salt enterprises is in the early stage of recovery, and the current net profit base is low, which also provides favorable conditions for the expansion of the growth of lithium mining sector in the first quarter of this year.
Compared with other industrial chain links of new energy, the downstream is currently in the state of cost transmission to the end market. For example, the two leaders of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla have recently adjusted their prices. The midstream battery materials mainly rely on processing fees, and the power battery enterprises also bear the rising cost pressure of raw materials.
In other words, at present, the most certain growth link in the whole new energy vehicle industry chain is still concentrated in upstream raw material enterprises.
lithium salt price stabilized at a high level, or a listed company with a profit of 10 billion yuan was born
The newspaper reported in mid February that the downstream demand side will reopen centralized large-scale procurement at the end of February and early March.
Since then, the price of lithium salt in China has continued to rise, and the battery grade lithium carbonate has increased from 450000 yuan / ton to about 510000 yuan / ton. Lithium hydroxide made up for the rise, and the price difference with lithium carbonate narrowed rapidly, rising from 370000 yuan / ton in the same period to around 480000 yuan / ton at present.
However, with the completion of procurement in early March, lithium salt prices have entered a high stagflation state recently. Whether it is lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, the price change range in the last week is very limited.
"A manufacturer in Jiangxi has recently stopped making external quotations because the early orders have not been delivered. It is mainly for old customers and there are no redundant loose orders for sale." Qu Lin, an analyst of lithium salt industry of business agency, said.
She pointed out that recently, the downstream has strong resistance to the high price of more than 500000 yuan / ton, and the market is mainly dominated by small batch transactions of just needed customers. It is expected that the price of lithium salt may continue to remain high and stabilize in the short term.
Reviewing the historical price of lithium salt, we can see that the price trend of this product is not "either up or down", and the trend characteristics are very obvious. Taking the rising cycle since the second half of 2020 as an example, the typical nodes include the high sideways from April to August 2021 and November of the same year.
When this feature is fed back to the corporate profit level, it means the quarterly increase of the average sales price of products and the growth and continuation of the overall gross profit margin.
With the determination of the operating performance of some listed companies, including institutions, they also timely revise the profit expectations of relevant enterprises.
According to incomplete statistics, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) has raised the profit expectation of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 2022 for three times in the past six months.
The expected profit is 4.4 billion yuan, 4.55 billion yuan and 9.144 billion yuan respectively. After Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) released the operating data from January to February, the organization further raised its profit expectation in 2022 to RMB 12.1 billion.
In this regard, some people in the lithium salt industry commented that if the lithium salt price can maintain the current high level, it does not rule out the possibility that enterprises can achieve the above profit expectations.
Of course, some possible risks can not be ignored.
At present, the price of lithium salt is at an absolute high in history, the profit margin of the industry is very considerable, and it has a very obvious cost lifting effect on downstream power batteries and new energy vehicle enterprises. In the later stage, the risk of China's regulation of lithium salt products increases.
At that time, the profit trend of the whole industry will face differentiation.
Under the background of high lithium concentrate price, the profit margin of outsourcing raw material enterprises will narrow sharply, while the self owned mines and Salt Lake enterprises have little problem.
