Since this year, the price of silicon materials in China has remained high, and the slight rise momentum has continued.
On March 16, the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) released data that this week, the price of silicon material ushered in nine consecutive rises.
However, the silicon industry branch pointed out that under the background of nine consecutive rises, market transactions are gradually cold. However, the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand production continues to be high.
On March 15, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) ( Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) . SZ) and Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ( Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) . SH) successively announced that they would invest 14 billion and 17.6 billion to build polysilicon and industrial silicon projects.
So far, from the production expansion project disclosed in the silicon material link in 2021, the investment blowout has become a foregone conclusion.
It is worth mentioning that the hot investment sentiment has also attracted frequent warnings in the industry. This week, the silicon industry branch issued a prompt, "it is suggested that all investment enterprises conduct comprehensive research, not only pursue immediate interests, but also need to be more cautious in the face of opportunities for long-term development."
silicon material demand this week "phagocytosis"
The latest polysilicon price released by the silicon industry branch shows that the price range of China's single crystal re feeding is between 242000 and 251000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 247800 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.49%; The price range of single crystal dense material is between 240000 and 249000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 245300 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%.
Although the price of silicon materials rose slightly for several weeks in a row, the silicon industry branch pointed out that there was a "reverse bite" in demand and the enthusiasm for procurement was fading.
"The polysilicon transaction is relatively light. Only two or three silicon material enterprises have signed a small number of loose orders. The transaction price of loose orders is basically at the high level of last week, so it supports the average price of silicon materials to continue to rise slightly this week." Silicon branch said.
Previously, "off-season is not light" has been the main theme of this year.
Statistics show that in January this year, the country's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 7gw, a year-on-year increase of 200%, and the installed capacity exceeded expectations.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in addition to the "rush to install" in December last year, the new installed capacity of 7gw per month almost exceeded that of all months last year. In this context, orders for silicon materials and wafers in the upstream of the industrial chain, batteries and components in the downstream, inverters, auxiliary materials and other industries are generally full, and the operating rate rises instead of falling.
Therefore, in the case of high market enthusiasm, the silicon material price has been stuck at a high level for several consecutive weeks, and the short downward trend at the end of 2021 failed to reappear.
According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, as of the latest quotation, the prices of single crystal re feeding and single crystal compact in China have increased by 6.90% and 7.07%, corresponding to 16000 yuan and 16200 yuan higher per ton than at the beginning of the year.
For the reasons for rising prices, the industry attributed the reasons to "the increment is less than expected". Since the first half of the year, silicon material manufacturers have continuously released new silicon material production capacity. However, due to the superposition of factors such as the accelerated pace of production expansion and the increase of operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises, the silicon material supply can not keep up with the incremental rhythm of silicon wafer, resulting in the supply gap, resulting in the phased tension of silicon material.
In the short term, the shortage of silicon material may continue for some time. As predicted by the silicon industry branch, although China's silicon material supply increased in April, it was still lower than expected.
However, in the long run, with the gradual release of capacity expansion of silicon material manufacturers in the second half of the year, it is almost the unanimous judgment of the industry that the price enters the downward channel.
"The current silicon material capacity expansion is slow." A person from a photovoltaic enterprise predicted that in the second half of the year, with the release of new silicon material production capacity, the price of silicon material will decline significantly.
the scale of production expansion in recent year exceeded 270 billion
In March this year, China's silicon material sector ushered in two 10 billion investment plans.
On March 15, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) announced that it plans to invest in the construction of 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity polysilicon projects, with a total investment period of five years. The first phase plans to invest in 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 10000 tons of high-purity polysilicon projects, and the second phase plans to invest in 90000 tons of polysilicon projects.
On the same day, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) also announced that the holding subsidiary Xinte energy, with its wholly-owned subsidiary Xinte silicon-based new materials Co., Ltd. as the main body, invested in the construction of a 200000 ton polysilicon project in Xinjiang Changji Zhundong Industrial Park, with a total investment of about 17.6 billion yuan.
Recently, the high vision of the photovoltaic industry has attracted more and more enterprises. Even "laymen" such as Jiangxi toy leader mubang high tech and cement leader Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) have also set foot in photovoltaic across borders in order to create a new growth pole.
The production expansion momentum of "insiders" is even hotter. According to the incomplete statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, since February 2021, only the polysilicon field has ushered in the investment of more than a dozen new and old faces, with a total planned production capacity of nearly 3 million tons and a total investment of more than 270 billion yuan.
The Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , which has joined the silicon material link, is also another case of the extension of downstream enterprises to upstream enterprises in the industrial chain in recent years.
As the leader of photovoltaic backplane, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) at present, the shipment of backplane products ranks in the forefront of the industry. At the same time, the company also invests in the layout of photovoltaic modules and distributed photovoltaic cells.
However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand, industrial silicon and polysilicon, as the upstream of the photovoltaic industry, have continued to rise in the past two years, resulting in a sharp decline in the profitability of the company's battery and module business.
In fact, the move of Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) to March upstream is the same as the previous plan of Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) layout silicon.
At the same time, it is precisely because of the high price of silicon material last year that the rich profits also make the latecomers "covetous".
the annual report recently disclosed by Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ( Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . SH) shows that the company's revenue in 2021 reached 10.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 132%; The net profit was 5.724 billion, a year-on-year increase of 449%. According to the financial report, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) 2021 the sales price of polysilicon units in the first quarter and the fourth quarter of 2021 increased from 77.15 yuan per kilogram to 216.87 yuan per kilogram respectively, which tripled during the year.
Demand determines price China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) 's research report points out that the installed capacity in 2022 is still largely determined by the most scarce silicon material supply, which supports the silicon material price.
Under the background of high scenery, the expansion tide of silicon material link is inevitable.
According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, up to now, 16 new enterprises have announced the new and proposed polysilicon projects (13 more than the current number of enterprises in production), and the total planned capacity is more than 1.7 million tons / year. If the capacity expansion of existing enterprises in production is included, the total increment will reach about 3.5 million tons / year. In 2025, the terminal demand is optimistic, and the demand for silicon is expected to be 400gw, about 1.5 million tons, about 900000 tons compared with that in 2021, It can be seen that the capacity increment of expansion is significantly greater than the demand increment.
The silicon industry branch further pointed out that due to the small elasticity coefficient of polysilicon production capacity and high requirements for safety and environmental protection management, once the supply exceeds the demand, it is very easy to have the extreme situation of inverted cost price for a long time, and then enter the vicious circle of insufficient capital investment and serious mismatch between supply and demand in the industry again, aggravating the disorderly competition in the market.
In fact, the cost advantages accumulated by leading enterprises will gradually appear, and whether the new entrants can resist the excess risk when the production capacity is really implemented remains to be tested.
