In order to meet the needs of batteries with higher energy density, silicon-based negative electrode has entered the industrial vision. Some manufacturers have begun to layout silicon-based negative electrode production projects. The manufacturers who take the lead in shipping and are accepted by the market can enjoy about 50% of the high gross profit. However, in the long run, large-scale application depends on the improvement of cost performance brought by the reduction of cost.
Some insiders predict that the silicon-based negative electrode will start to be in large quantity in 2023, and the demand has obviously crossed the platform period this year. Silicon based negative electrode is the direct beneficiary of 4680 battery, and the large-scale time point also follows the promotion rhythm of this kind of battery. At present, Tesla's self built production line has produced 4680 batteries on a small scale. Panasonic, LG and other overseas manufacturers have gradually increased their production, and Chinese manufacturers have followed suit.
industrialization approaching
Silicon based negative electrode is regarded as the negative electrode material of the next generation of lithium battery, which will break out after dormant for many years. The reporter of securities times · e company noted that at present, the number of manufacturers capable of mass production of silicon-based negative electrodes is small, and the competition pattern is relatively concentrated. Some mass production manufacturers have begun a new round of production expansion, and several companies are in the stage of pilot test and sample delivery.
Beiteri is the first company in China to ship silicon-based negative electrodes in batches. Ren Jianguo, general manager of beiteri, told the securities times · e company that the company currently has a production capacity of 3000 tons of silicon-based negative electrode, which is mainly used in the fields of electric tools and power batteries, of which the consumption of power batteries accounts for about 60-70%.
Beiteri's production expansion plan is also the largest project disclosed in the industry. According to the announcement, beiteri recently reached an agreement with Guangming District of Shenzhen to invest 5 billion yuan to build a 40000 ton silicon-based cathode material project. The first phase of 15000 tons will be completed and put into operation by the end of December 2023.
Many traditional negative electrode material factories have begun to layout silicon-based negative electrodes. According to the announcements of various companies, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) has realized batch supply, which is mainly used in 3C and other fields, and the power battery has passed multiple rounds of evaluation by mainstream vehicle enterprises Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) in Jiangxi and Liyang, pilot test lines of silicon-based negative electrode have been built, which have passed the certification of some customers Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) silicon-based negative electrode has met the basic conditions for industrialization.
This field has also attracted a number of cross-border manufacturers, including Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) , which is mainly engaged in electrolyte materials. The reporter of securities times · e company learned from the field investigation of Dongying plant that Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) phase I 1000 ton silicon-based negative electrode has entered the trial production stage, and it is expected to ship in batch in the second half of this year. In addition, the company has also planned a 20000 ton silicon-based negative electrode production line with a total investment of 730 million yuan, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2023.
Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) which is mainly engaged in organic silicon materials has also arranged a 10000 t / a silicon carbon negative electrode material for lithium batteries. The material has passed the evaluation of several battery manufacturers and achieved small batch supply. In addition, the power battery manufacturer Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) also has a 5000 t / a silicon-based negative electrode material project under construction.
At present, graphite is still the mainstream of negative electrode materials, but the demand for silicon-based negative electrodes has increased significantly in recent two years. According to the data of Gaogong lithium battery, in 2020, the shipment of silicon carbon cathode in China was only 60000 tons, accounting for 2% of the overall proportion of lithium battery cathode materials. It is estimated that the demand for silicon-based cathode materials will be 22000 tons in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 80% from 2019 to 2022.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) in the recent research report, it is clearly judged that 2022 is expected to be the first year of silicon-based negative electrode industrialization. It is estimated that the global demand for silicon-based negative electrodes is expected to reach 200000 tons in 2025, of which the penetration rate of consumer batteries is expected to reach 50%, corresponding to the demand for about 70000 tons of silicon-based negative electrodes; The permeability of cylindrical and square power batteries reaches 35% and 20% respectively, corresponding to the demand of about 130000 tons of silicon-based negative electrode.
promotion and application to be reduced
Before knocking at the door of the market, silicon-based negative electrode needs not only continuous optimization in performance, but also continuous cost reduction to improve the cost performance advantage.
Capacity is one of the key indicators to measure the performance of negative electrode materials. The larger the capacity, the more helpful it is to improve the energy density of the battery. After decades of development, the specific capacity of traditional graphite negative electrode has reached 360 ~ 365mah / g, which is very close to the theoretical specific capacity of 372mah / g, and the room for improvement is limited. The theoretical specific capacity of silicon-based negative electrode is up to 4200mah / g, which means that its capacity is ten times higher than that of graphite negative electrode.
On the other hand, silicon-based negative electrode also has some problems, such as easy volume expansion of silicon, poor conductivity, large first charge and discharge loss and so on. Therefore, the improvement of material performance is actually to find a balance between energy density and stability. Now silicon-based negative electrode products are mixed with silicon and graphite.
At present, the proportion of silicon doped in mass-produced products is mostly below 10%, and there is a trend of gradual improvement. Moke, the founder of true lithium research, told the reporter of securities times · e company that the best proportion of silicon doping needs to be determined according to the situation of different fields. For example, Panasonic has continuously increased the proportion of silicon, which has been increased to 10% about seven or eight years ago. Later, the proportion was reduced in order to find a balance point of comprehensive benefits.
Specifically, the silicon-based negative electrode is divided into silicon carbon negative electrode, silicon oxygen carbon negative electrode and other different types. The first charge and discharge efficiency of silicon carbon negative electrode is high, but the expansion is large, while the silicon oxygen carbon negative electrode is the opposite. For example, the types of Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) products are ordinary type and high first effect silicon oxide carbon negative electrode (siox-c); Beiteri covers two varieties. In the mass-produced products, the specific capacity of silicon carbon negative electrode is between 650 ~ 1500mah / g, and the silicon oxygen carbon negative electrode can reach 1600mAh / g.
As the industrialization of silicon-based negative electrode is still in its infancy, manufacturers that give priority to mass production can enjoy the premium effect. The reporter of securities times · e company learned that at present, the market price of silicon-based negative electrode is 200000 ~ 300000 yuan / ton, which is 4 ~ 6 times higher than that of middle-end artificial graphite of 50000 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin is 50%.
However, under the current price, the silicon-based negative electrode lacks cost-effective advantages, which may affect its application in mainstream models. According to the calculation of CICC Research Report, the high nickel 811 soft pack battery uses 450mah / g silicon carbon negative electrode, and the energy density of the whole battery can be increased from 280wh / kg to 295wh / kg, an increase of about 5%, which is less than the increase of negative electrode cost.
A few models on the market have begun to use silicon-based negative electrode materials. Tesla Model 3 and other models add a small amount of silicon to the negative electrode. Recently, the aion LX plus model of gac-e'an has been launched. The Qianli version is equipped with sponge silicon negative electrode battery technology, which can achieve a range of 1000 kilometers.
"This sponge silicon negative electrode battery adopts ternary positive electrode and silicon oxide negative electrode material. The gram capacity and silicon doping ratio are higher than those of existing models on the market. Generally speaking, silicon-based negative electrode is most suitable for cylindrical battery, but we took the lead in applying it to square battery because we have improved the battery material system and introduced the design idea of magazine battery into the whole package design." Li Jin, senior manager of GAC ea'an technology center, told the reporter of securities times · e company.
However, on the whole, the proportion of silicon doped batteries using silicon-based negative electrodes is low, and the advantages of silicon-based negative electrodes have not been fully brought into play.
A person familiar with the negative electrode materials told the reporter of the securities times · e company that the silicon-based negative electrode is difficult to bring intuitive profit contribution to manufacturers in the short term. The incremental space under the compound doping scheme is also relatively limited, and we still need to wait for the breakthrough of process technology.
"Compared with the consumption field, power battery enterprises are more sensitive to costs. Recently, they need to face the pressure of rising prices of various raw materials. The current price of silicon-based negative electrode may be unacceptable, but when the technology matures in the future, more companies will participate in the competition, and the price will drop accordingly." A lithium battery industry analyst told the securities times · e company reporter.
Under the high gross profit, material manufacturers also have considerable space to make profits to the downstream Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) in the feasibility report, it is estimated that the sales price of finished silicon-based negative electrode is expected to be 73000 yuan / ton, which is close to the price of high-end artificial graphite in the market. Ren Jianguo also believes that the cost performance of silicon-based negative electrode can reach the level consistent with high-end artificial graphite.
"The silicon-based negative electrode has considerable cost reduction space, because the energy consumption of artificial graphite production is relatively high, and the cost of graphitization accounts for 50%, and the silicon-based negative electrode can avoid this process." Li Jin said.
It is worth mentioning that the application of silicon-based negative electrode will also be accompanied by the maturity of a number of supporting materials. In order to overcome expansion, improve conductivity and first charge discharge efficiency, batteries with silicon-based negative electrodes need to be matched with conductive agents, adhesives, lithium replenishing agents and other products. Some manufacturers have planned projects for supporting products. Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) recently announced that it will invest 935 million yuan to build a 20000 t / a cathode lithium supplement project; Invest 318 million yuan to build a 10000 t / a new conductive agent project Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) also plans a 40000 t / a special adhesive production base in the silicon-based negative electrode project.
4680 warm air blowing
At present, silicon-based negative electrodes are mainly used in consumer electronics, power tools and other fields, while the power battery field contains more incremental space, especially the upcoming 4680 battery will become the warm wind to change the market.
Tesla first released the 4680 cylindrical battery in 2020. Its name comes from the size of 46mm in diameter and 80mm in height. The positive electrode of this battery is made of high nickel ternary material, matched with silicon-based negative electrode, and has electrodeless ear and dry electrode design, which can increase its endurance mileage by 16%, power output by 6 times and energy by 5 times compared with the previous generation of 2170 battery, and the cost will also be reduced by 14%. Tesla CEO musk once said frankly that this battery will make a $25000 electric vehicle possible.
At present, 4680 batteries are already on the eve of mass production. Tesla announced on February 19 that Fremont factory had produced 1 million 4680 batteries in January and is expected to take the lead in model y in the first quarter of 2022. According to the estimation that each vehicle is equipped with 1000 batteries, 1 million batteries can meet the production of 1000 model y.
In addition to self built production lines, Tesla also cooperates with suppliers. Both Panasonic and LG new energy plan to mass produce 4680 batteries in 2023. Panasonic's factory in Wakayama County, Japan is introducing two production lines, and LG new energy has also begun to build a pilot production line.
There are also many manufacturers in China Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) has 4680 technical reserves, and announced in November 2021 that it will build a 20gwh large cylindrical battery production line for passenger cars in Jingmen. There is a market speculation that its customer is Tesla or BMW. In addition, BIC battery is also developing the application of full polar ear large cylindrical battery, and it is expected to launch mass production standard products in 2022.
In addition, according to industry information, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plans eight 4680 battery production lines, with a total of 12gwh " Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) now mainly faces the problem of cost performance. The cost of applying silicon-based negative electrode is too high. If the energy density can reach 550wh / kg, it means that the application of silicon-based negative electrode is mature." A silicon-based negative electrode R & D person told the securities times · e company reporter.
It should be noted that some 4680 batteries in China are not completely equivalent to Tesla's process technology. "If only the size changes, the 4680 battery can be made soon. A few years ago, some 18650 battery manufacturers tried to ship some limitless ear products, but it's not easy to integrate many new technologies like Tesla." Mercer said.
Silicon based negative electrode manufacturers have begun to target power battery customers Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) said that the early-stage technology docking between the company and Chinese head lithium battery enterprises is continuing, and the R & D personnel of more than five enterprises expressed their willingness to carry out technology joint development and cooperation with the company.
The above silicon-based negative electrode R & D personnel expect that Chinese manufacturers can follow up about one year after Tesla 4680 mass production. The time point of large-scale production of silicon-based negative electrode in the field of power battery is about 2023. At that time, there may be a capacity gap. "Since this year, head battery manufacturers have begun to interact frequently with negative electrode manufacturers to understand the progress of material performance improvement."
The gradual warming of downstream demand this year is the common feeling of many manufacturers. Ren Jianguo also said that the whole market scale was in a platform stage a few years ago, and there are signs of incremental climbing this year. For the time being, China has not seen a mature 4680 production line, and overseas has begun to increase gradually. At present, beiteri's silicon-based negative electrode is mainly supplied to overseas major customers.
In the longer term, the application of silicon-based negative electrode is not limited to 4680 battery. The above lithium battery industry analysts said that among the three battery routes of cylindrical, square and soft package, the consistency of cylindrical battery is the strongest, so some more radical materials can be used, and the safety factor of soft package battery is the lowest, so we must use the most stable materials. If the technical improvement can effectively control the expansion coefficient of silicon-based negative electrode, both square and soft pack batteries can be used.
In terms of vehicle end applications, Li Jin said that gac-e'an is trying to use silicon-based negative electrodes in more models, and other companies in the industry also have plans in this regard. In the short term, silicon-based negative electrode will still be limited to medium and high-end models, but with the cost reduction of materials, it is expected to be applied to more mainstream models.
