On March 16, A-Shares swept away the haze.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.48% and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.02%; The gem index rose 5.20%. In this round of rebound, the bull market flag bearer brokerage stocks became the pioneer. At the industry index level, all Shenwan industries closed up, led by non bank finance. On the same day, the wind brokerage industry index rose 6.39%, the limits of Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) , and China stock market news rose more than 10%.
institutional analysis shows that the brokerage sector has shown a callback trend since the beginning of the year, and the safety margin is high at present. Considering that a number of securities companies have recently disclosed performance forecasts and express reports, which show that the growth rate of revenue and net profit has increased steadily, and there are many bright achievements, the fundamentals of securities companies have not deteriorated, and the downward trend of stock price and valuation has opened the allocation time point
At the same time, the institution also put forward some optimistic views on the overall market outlook China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) frankly, the next month, after the continuous adjustment since the beginning of the year and the most panic point has gradually passed, the market is expected to usher in a wave of repair window. Some institutions also said that the bottom of China’s policy appeared, the tone of protecting the market was clear, the valuation level of the market decreased significantly after the substantial adjustment in the early stage, and there has been a good cost performance.
bull market flag bearer takes the lead in rebound
Brokerage stocks have become the leading sector in the market rebound. On the 16th, the Shenwan non bank financial index rose 5.57%, leading the whole market.
Among them, China stock market news rose by 10.42%, Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) , Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) , Guosheng Financial Holding Inc(002670) and other limits, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) and other 27 securities companies rose by more than 5%.
In fact, several stocks in the brokerage sector have continued to rise Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) rose for 4 consecutive days, with an increase of more than 32% in the month Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) in the last four trading days, there have been three limit sectors, with an increase of 20% in the month.
“The performance elasticity of securities companies is good, and the valuation of some small securities companies is also low. On the whole, there are more reasons for rising than falling.” A private equity investor in Shanghai told a Chinese reporter from a securities firm.
The person further said that in the past two years, except for some companies with good wealth management business, most securities companies have not been recognized by the market in the case of high performance growth. When the gap between valuation and performance is large enough, the impulse to increase valuation will increase.
China Post securities analyst Wang Zejun also said that the brokerage sector has shown a callback trend since the beginning of the year, and the current safety margin is high. Considering that a number of securities companies have recently disclosed performance forecasts and express reports, which show that the growth rate of revenue and net profit has increased steadily, and there are many bright achievements, the fundamentals of securities companies have not deteriorated, and the downward trend of stock price and valuation has opened the allocation time point.
Wang Zejun believes that the recent average daily turnover of trillions in the two cities has become the norm, and the pressure on short-term brokerage business and wealth management business has been relieved. At the same time, the reform and innovation of the securities industry in recent years, such as fund investment adviser, new regulations on asset management and the implementation of comprehensive registration system, will greatly stabilize the performance fluctuation of the securities industry, and the short-term market fluctuation will not change the good momentum of the medium and long-term performance of the securities industry.
\u3000\u3000 “China’s economy has turned to a stage of high-quality development. China’s GDP has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and its per capita GDP has exceeded US $1 trillion. Residents’ wealth has accumulated rapidly, the scale of investable assets has increased rapidly, the transformation of asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets has accelerated, and the demand for equity asset allocation has increased. Supervision has guided institutional investors to enter the market, optimized the investor structure, increased the scale and proportion of professional institutional investors, and the trend of institutionalization has emerged , deepening the service of institutional investors is the focus of securities companies to build their core competitiveness. Under the environment of capital market ecological transformation, the advantageous securities companies in the fields of wealth management and institutional business will have core competitiveness. Wealth management and institutional business are the medium and long-term high-quality track for securities companies. ” Wu Pingping, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, said.
A-Shares ushered in the end of policy
The overall rebound of A-share market also provides a more solid foundation for the elasticity of securities companies. On March 16, Liu he presided over the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. Some institutions also regarded the rebound as the establishment of the policy bottom.
“The statement of the financial committee meeting on macroeconomic and market hot issues has greatly improved the confidence of investors in the current market. In the future, the market rebound will continue.” Said Yan Xiang, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) chief strategist.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) chief strategist Chen Guo also said that the rebound market has started as scheduled. It is expected that the strength and sustainability of this round of rebound will exceed the last round of counterattack after the Spring Festival and before the two sessions. The growth style of this round of rebound is dominant, and the performance of the first quarter report is the core.
He said that the catalyst for the overall rebound of the market was the meeting of the financial committee, which greatly boosted market confidence. The main reason for the sharp decline of the market in the early stage is the lack of market confidence and the deterioration of market micro liquidity. This has led to an obvious oversold in the market. The equity risk premium has reached the limit state of 90% quantile in recent 8 years, and the stock index point is significantly lower than the reasonable level. In this context, it is necessary for the state to strongly boost market confidence and alleviate the deterioration of market liquidity in any form.
At the same time, the special meeting of the financial committee answered several major issues most concerned by the current market, expressed firm support for steady growth, and clarified the future development ideas of the real estate market. At the same time, give a clear tone to the issues of China concept stocks, platform economy and Hong Kong stocks concerned by the market, which has become the current “policy bottom” in these key areas.
Finally, the meeting also responded to the market’s concerns about policies, “actively introduce policies that are beneficial to the market and prudently introduce contraction policies. Timely respond to hot issues concerned by the market. Any policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations.”
Some foreign investors are also optimistic about the current market. Goldman Sachs China macroeconomic research team believes that the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council has played an important role in guiding the market, reflected the concern of high-level policymakers about market sentiment, and also released a positive signal that they will maintain a loose policy position. Considering the rebound of the epidemic in the past two weeks and other factors, the introduction of more specific policy easing measures in the near future will be more helpful to support the overall economic growth.
since this year, Citigroup’s global investment committee has further increased the proportion of China’s allocation. Despite the recent fluctuations in the Chinese market, Citigroup analysts are still optimistic about the future trend of the Chinese stock market
First, loose policy. Citigroup believes that China’s GDP growth target of 5.5% this year shows the determination of the Chinese government to stabilize growth. China may continue to implement an active fiscal policy and maintain a relatively loose monetary policy. Although the central bank did not cut interest rates on Tuesday, the incremental continuation of medium-term lending facility (MLF) may help to increase medium-term liquidity. Citigroup still believes that this round of easing cycle is not over.
Second, underestimate the value. After this round of decline, the advantage of undervaluation of China’s stock market is expected to be more obvious, and the valuation of some industries has fallen to near the lowest level in history. The undervalued value is expected to provide more space for the performance of China’s stock market in the future.
Third, foreign capital is expected to continue to flow in. Despite the recent outflow of foreign capital, Citigroup believes that benefiting from the interest rate difference between China and the United States, China’s long-term investment opportunities and the global allocation demand of overseas funds (the proportion of overseas funds in China is still low), overseas funds will continue to flow into China in the future.
