On March 16, A-Shares and Hong Kong shares jointly rebounded, sweeping away the previous downturn. Market participants said that the early decline of the market was mainly dominated by sentiment and divorced from fundamentals. At present, favorable conditions are coming one after another. China's assets are confident enough to overweight, the capital market is expected to usher in a strong rebound, and the growth style is expected to be dominant.
multiple profits promote the rise
As of the closing on March 16, the three major stock indexes of A-Shares rose sharply. Among them, the Shanghai composite index reported 317071 points, up 3.48%; Shenzhen composite index reported 1200096 points, up 4.02%; Gem index reported 263508 points, up 5.20%. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 9.08% to 2008750 points, and the Hang Seng technology index rose 22.20% to 424339 points, the largest one-day increase in history. Shares of Tencent, Alibaba, US group, Kwai Fu, Baidu group and other platform companies rose sharply.
Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, said that there were five positive factors behind the sharp rise on the 16th.
First, market confidence was restored and liquidity concerns were alleviated. A special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council was held on March 16 to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. The signal released by the special meeting of the financial committee has effectively boosted the current market confidence.
Second, the special meeting of the Finance Committee answered the most concerned questions of the current market, and gave a clear and definite tone to China concept shares, platform economy, Hong Kong stocks and other issues.
Third, the flexible adjustment of epidemic prevention ideas has boosted the market's confidence in combating covid-19 pneumonia and realizing economic recovery.
Fourth, improve the external environment. The results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve will be released in the early morning of Beijing time on the 17th, after long-term concerns that the market is about to usher in a "boot landing". In addition, relevant geopolitical conflicts also show signs of easing.
Fifth, the fear of RMB exchange rate depreciation has been effectively alleviated. On the 16th, the RMB appreciated again, which shows that the current two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is good, and there is no expectation of unilateral depreciation.
basic surface support foot
Recently, some A-share investors are worried about the market, and the basic area pole factor with medium and long-term influence has been ignored.
First of all, the relevant data on the operation of the national economy from January to February released on the 15th show that China's economy is showing real warmth. "The economic data from January to February showed a bright performance, significantly exceeding market expectations, showing the resilience and potential of China's economy to a certain extent." Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) chief Macro Analyst Shen Xinfeng said that judging from the positive signals revealed in this year's government work report, the tone of the steady growth policy will not change due to the recovery of economic data in individual months, the loose expectation of the operating margin of monetary policy still exists, and the overweight ammunition of fiscal policy is sufficient.
Secondly, the valuation of A-Shares is attractive. Statistics show that as of March 15, the price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index was 11.6 times, at the 10% quantile level in recent five years. In the longer term, it has been lower than the valuation level of the Shanghai composite index at 1664 points in 2008 (13.5 times). The overall P / E ratios of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 are 9.5 times and 9.4 times respectively, which are also in the historical low quartile.
Moreover, industrial capital took positive action and the tide of repurchase emerged Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and a number of leading listed companies have thrown out repurchase plans. Historical experience shows that in the process of bottoming A shares in 2018, the repurchase tide of listed companies has contributed to the recovery of the market.
Finally, a number of listed companies released operating data from January to February, with bright performance, dispelling the market's concerns about micro level performance.
In addition, the fluctuation of northward funds slowed sharply on the 16th. "From the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect to 2021, northbound funds have a net inflow every year." Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist Xun Yugen believes that in the long run, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares is a constant trend.
focus on the first quarterly Nuggets
With the strong recovery of market confidence on the 16th, insiders generally believe that A-Shares will usher in a rebound, which can be arranged around the first quarterly report. Chen Guo said that it is expected that the strength and duration of this round of rebound of A-Shares will exceed the rebound in February. Fan Jituo, chief strategist at Cinda securities, believes that the core time window for this round of rebound is from late March to April.
In terms of specific allocation, Chen Guo said that the "high boom + marginal improvement" sector of the first quarter report will be the focus of the current rebound of a shares. At present, the market is in the disclosure window period of annual report and first quarter report, and the performance data of relevant listed companies will verify the high prosperity of high-end manufacturing industry chain. In terms of meso data, the sales data of new energy vehicles in February was bright, the demand for photovoltaic in the first quarter was better than expected, and the semiconductor / military industry sector was still in the high boom range. It can focus on semiconductor, photovoltaic, military, automotive, battery, Baijiu, banking and other industries.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategist Zhang Xia suggested starting from two aspects. First, the certainty of "real estate + infrastructure" investment rebounds, commodity prices are expected to remain strong, profits are more concentrated upstream, and industries such as petroleum and petrochemical, industrial metals, steel, cement and coal will have a stronger profit trend. Secondly, the relevant departments increase the expenditure on new energy infrastructure, which means that the demand for photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and hydrogen energy increases, and the upstream companies in these new energy fields will benefit more. The demand for digital infrastructure will also increase, which will form demand support for Internet Data Center (IDC), big data, cloud computing and other fields.
