Today (March 17), A-Shares continued yesterday’s rebound. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board, and remained high throughout the morning. Near noon, the stock index showed signs of further upward attack, and the strong pattern was at a glance.
From the disk point of view, the general rising market continued, the real estate sector set off a rising tide, the subject of the pharmaceutical industry chain also took the lead, the industry and the concept sector went long hand in hand, and the market profit effect was prominent. Besides, Baijiu, games, batteries, electronic components and other sectors also rose earlier. In the Baijiu sector, Hai Nan Yedao (Group) Co.Ltd(600238) , Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) , Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) and other Biao trading, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and other share prices rose.
Minsheng Securities believes that the market bottom rebound, but also to find a new consensus. After the policy bottom appears, the market will have a phased bottom seeking rebound, and the stabilization and phased rebound of growth stocks can also be expected. Taking advantage of the window period of market bottoming rebound, we suggest switching the layout in the rebound: (1) under the main line of inflation: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), crude oil (oil transportation, oil and gas exploitation) and coal. (2) Demand recovery: banking, real estate, construction. (3) Recommendation of growth sector: semiconductor, power grid and computer.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] covid-19 drugs
Guosheng Securities pointed out that medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the strongest direction in stages.
The agency further mentioned that our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of irrational valuation range. Here you can see more pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline and individual stocks with high identification & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
AVIC Securities said that according to the announcement and annual report previously released by Pfizer, the price of a single course of paxlovid is $529. It is expected that the revenue of covid-19 oral medicine will reach $22 billion in covid-19 treatment products in 2022. Covid-19 oral medicine, as the last puzzle in the current covid-19 treatment industry chain, has broad market prospects. In addition to the innovation expectations given by enterprises directly involved in covid-19 oral drug research and development, China’s CXO industrial chain has a complete integrated chain with obvious cost and efficiency advantages. The order announcements issued by some enterprises also confirm our previous view. In the short term, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the R & D of covid-19 small molecule drugs, and pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in the supply chain of covid-19 preventive drugs, including Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that it is appropriate to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuations of many pharmaceutical companies have reached a very reasonable range, and the uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes it impossible for many investors to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
[theme two] Baijiu
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that for Baijiu industry, short-term efforts should be made in the long term, and the trend of structural upgrading will not be changed. Around the Spring Festival, the epidemic control and control were relatively relaxed compared with 2021, and the terminal consumption scenarios were restored. The liquor industry’s overall sales performance was stable and the channel refunds were good, but the regional differentiation characteristics (mainly caused by the epidemic in some areas) were repeated, and the performance of the Baijiu liquor was relatively better. From 2 to March, the Baijiu industry will enter the “shrinkage stage”. But the good performance of the Spring Festival has laid a good foundation for the first quarter. We think that Baijiu 22Q1 can start a good start.
For the beer industry, high-end + price increase effect is realized, and attention is paid to systematic opportunities in peak seasons. On the whole, the logic of high-end industry continues to be deduced. It is expected that with the recovery of catering demand and the decline of raw material prices (the high glass price fell in January), the price increase effect of the industry is expected to be realized in the peak season of 21q2, and the report performance will release high elasticity.
Financial letter Securities said that the current position of the Baijiu sector can be more positive. At present, the biggest difficulty faced by the industry is that the macroeconomic downturn affects the consumption capacity, while at the industry level, the price and inventory of famous wines are healthy, and the industry order is improving. Looking forward to the future, (1) the impact of the epidemic is gradually passivated, epidemic prevention policies are more flexible, and the scope of limited consumption scenarios will be further reduced; (2) With the steady growth policy, macroeconomic stabilization and recovery is a relatively certain trend. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are mainly stable, and it is expected to strengthen again with the recovery of macro viewing attitude in the future. However, due to the uncertainty of the recovery speed of consumption capacity, the weak demand period may continue for some time. This stage especially tests the channel price and inventory control ability of wine enterprises, and the winery needs to balance the volume and price.
[Theme 3] real estate development
Wanlian securities mentioned that the fundamentals of the real estate industry are still at the bottom, and there is still no significant improvement at the sales end. Under the macro background of “stable growth”, the policy environment of the real estate industry is not expected to be worse, and the industry fundamentals are gradually bottoming out. Due to the implementation of urban policies, the improvement policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, although the investment increased from January to February, the decline in sales was better than the market expectation.
However, sales are still weak and residents’ willingness to buy houses is low. The capital of the industry is still very tight, the investment willingness and ability of real estate enterprises have declined sharply, and the land market is deserted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy objective of “stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations” will face great challenges. It is still a top priority to further strengthen market stability. If the land market does not warm up and the market expectation does not stabilize, the probability of stability maintenance policies will be introduced one after another.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that the voice of multiple departments is heard together, and the change of real estate policy is expected to be further strengthened. On March 16, vice premier Liu he presided over the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council and mentioned that new loans should maintain a moderate growth; With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks. Five departments including the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange have all made positive statements to maintain stability. For example, the Ministry of Finance said that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax this year; The cbcirc encourages the steady and orderly development of M & A loans and supports high-quality enterprises to receive M & A; The central bank has made it clear that it will maintain a moderate increase in new loans; The CSRC and the safe said that they would cooperate with relevant departments to resolve the risks of real estate enterprises and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Under the maintenance of stability, the change of real estate policy will be more active and pay attention to the investment opportunities of real estate stocks.
[theme 4] Games
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) mentioned that China’s mobile travel to the sea is accelerating, and it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the long-term investment opportunities in the yuan universe sector. 1) As the next stop of the Internet, yuancosmos has a broad market space and a correction in the short-term sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the subdivided fields such as NFT and virtual human, as well as the long-term investment opportunities of yuancosmos related industrial chains; 2) Under the construction of digital economy, the industrial Internet will maintain rapid development. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading industrial B2B e-commerce Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) ; 3) The decentralized content ecology and the sustainable development of the industrial chain, the head short video platform and the leader of the industrial chain service provider deserve attention; 4) The new leading products of the game have good performance and rich content reserves. New technologies such as VR / Ar are expected to open up growth space and pay attention to the rhythm of edition number distribution.
Capital Securities said that it is optimistic about the A-share game leader and inject performance vitality through category innovation and sea development. Stimulated by the prospect of meta universe, the global game industry will enter the peak of technology and format innovation. The requirements of the next era games for creative planning, engine technology, cross platform operation, social experience and distribution marketing have made a qualitative leap. It is recommended to pay attention to G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) (wonderful planning of leisure placement category + business operation of independent games), heart company (boutique game community + content social potential), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (deep engine accumulation + category breakthrough audience expansion).
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that a total of 97 listed companies in the A-share media sector have announced the performance forecast / express for 2021. In terms of sub sectors, among the listed companies that have disclosed the performance forecast, the print media, film, television and animation sectors have improved significantly, and the internal performance growth differentiation of the game sector is obvious; From the perspective of trend, it continues the trend of sector bottoming and performance gradual repair since 2020. The valuation is at the bottom and grasp the adjusted layout opportunity.
