Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : multi sector joint voice optimistic about real estate stock investment opportunities
Multi sector voices, real estate policy changes are expected to further enhance. On March 16, vice premier Liu he presided over the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council and mentioned that new loans should maintain a moderate growth; With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks. Five departments including the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange have all made positive statements to maintain stability. For example, the Ministry of Finance said that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax this year; The cbcirc encourages the steady and orderly development of M & A loans and supports high-quality enterprises to receive M & A; The central bank has made it clear that it will maintain a moderate increase in new loans; The CSRC and the safe said that they would cooperate with relevant departments to resolve the risks of real estate enterprises and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Under the maintenance of stability, the change of real estate policy will be more active and pay attention to the investment opportunities of real estate stocks.
At present, the financing advantages of high-quality real estate enterprises are obvious, and the share of land acquisition has increased. The third batch of centralized land supply last year accounted for about 70% of the land acquisition by state-owned and central enterprises, and about 45% of the first batch. The profit margin of the land market improved due to the reduction of competition heat, the decline of premium rate and the adjustment of land transfer rules. High quality real estate enterprises will benefit relatively and usher in greater development opportunities. In terms of investment suggestions, we continue to recommend Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , etc.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : ten real estate enterprises collectively issued voluntary disclosure announcements, reflecting the “excess performance ability” of some real estate enterprises
On February 24, ten real estate enterprises issued a voluntary disclosure announcement on the bond platform to actively disclose information through legal channels or reflect the “excess performance ability” of some real estate enterprises, which is conducive to stabilizing expectations and reducing market fluctuations. It is also evidence of the improvement of the competition pattern of the industry; From the perspective of fundamentals, some real estate enterprises have shown strong fundamental resilience in the overall downward process of the industry, which is backed by the confirmation of cash flow management ability, regardless of whether private enterprises or state-owned enterprises. At the same time, it is expected that the fundamentals of the industry will bottom out around April, bringing an overall recovery to the capital of the industry; From the perspective of liquidity, the debt structure and short-term solvency of some real estate enterprises remain stable, the financing channels are unblocked, and the domestic and foreign rating agencies give positive comments. At the same time, the cash flow structure has the ability to control the cycle; Pay attention to the continuous improvement of industrial policies, sufficient space for valuation repair and the long-term logic of “improvement of competition pattern”, and pay attention to the acceleration of M & A after cyclical recovery.
In terms of investment suggestions, we should continue to pay attention to the improvement of real estate policies, pay attention to the sufficient space for valuation repair, pay attention to the long-term logic of improving the competition pattern under the clearing of the supply side of the industry, and pay attention to the acceleration of M & A after cyclical recovery. It is suggested to pay continuous attention to “Zhaobao Wanjin Zhonghua dragon” ( China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group), and those with marginal changes: Yuexiu, Greentown, Oct, etc. The second stage of fundamentals bottoming can focus on some flexible private enterprises with business model optimization, such as Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) etc. Some regional companies have certain game space, but they need to pay attention to the guarantee of goods value to sales growth and the sustainability of de conversion rate. It is suggested to avoid the subject matter of large concealment of cash flow or always relying on liabilities.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) : high quality property stocks enter the strategic allocation window. In the second half of the year, we can pay attention to “out of danger” real estate enterprises with good assets
The data of the Bureau of statistics is better than expected, which may interfere with the rhythm of real estate policy in the short term, but maintaining stability is still the general trend. From the actual situation, the fundamentals of the real estate industry are still weak in both supply and demand, and are experiencing unprecedented credit risk of private real estate enterprises. The actual investment is still under great pressure in the first half of the year, and the real estate stability maintenance policy still needs to be strengthened under the background of steady growth. The judgment of the economic situation should refer to multidimensional data. In the context of urban policy implementation, local governments are the key to determine the direction of “within the framework” policies. It is expected that the probability of follow-up policy signals will be further enhanced, and the three demand side core tools will be gradually implemented, including the continued accelerated decline of housing loan interest rate, the further optimization of down payment ratio, and the structural optimization of restrictive measures.
At present, it is still in the second stage of the market. Reiterate the judgment of “beta is not full, alpha is stronger”. Since October last year, the interpretation of the market has been in the second stage, corresponding to “data continues to fall, policies are gradually implemented”, and is in the key switching window of policy implementation from slow to fast, and short-term fluctuations provide better annual allocation opportunities; The logic of short-term pattern is better than the logic of cycle. After the callback of high credit real estate enterprises, the cost performance is higher. At the current time point, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; Once the policy is accelerated on schedule, the excellent waist leader will reflect greater flexibility. There is no essential difference between the rhythm and history. In the second half of the year, we can pay attention to the “escape” real estate enterprises with good assets. In addition, high-quality property stocks have also entered the strategic allocation window.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : is the policy favorable! Leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit
From the perspective of the industry, dig deep into the real picture behind the real estate data. We believe that as long as the land market does not warm up, the policy relaxation will not stop. When the market sentiment is stable, the real estate stocks are still very worthy of investment.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) .
In terms of price, the market is still depressed. According to the decrease of 10% in sales area and 20% in sales, we can calculate that the average sales price has decreased by 10%. As the recovery degree of the third and fourth tier is not as good as that of the first and second tier, the decline of the average sales price is not caused by structural factors, but more reflects the price reduction and sales behavior of real estate enterprises.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : it is still not a good strategy to find marginal real estate enterprises at this stage. It is recommended to combine state-owned enterprises and high credit private enterprises
Although the industrial policy has been relaxed since November last year, the marginal improvement of the actual fundamentals of the industry is very limited.
From the perspective of capital, the financing of enterprises has only improved slightly, while the prepayment and mortgage of the residential sector continue to decline, which shows that the current confidence on the demand side is still weak. Considering the current credit environment of the industry and the downward inertia of the market, we believe that the current policy environment is still insufficient to reverse the confidence of consumers and restore the credit level of private real estate enterprises. Therefore, the weakening pressure on both sides of supply and demand still exists, The expectation of policy correction still exists.
Before the data becomes clearer, there may be policy uncertainty. We think it is still not a good strategy to find marginal real estate enterprises at this stage. We continue to recommend the combination of state-owned enterprises and high credit private enterprises. We are optimistic about the first-line leaders with stable performance and recommend Poly Real Estate and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Longhu group and Xuhui holding group. At the same time, we are optimistic about the fast-growing property management and business management industries with strong consumption attributes, and recommend country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , rongchuang service and Xingsheng business.
Xiangcai Securities: construction support investment is growing, pay attention to the follow-up land market performance
Sales, land acquisition and new construction continued to decline, and the industry fundamentals are still at the bottom stage. However, under the policy tone of steady growth this year, since March, the real estate regulation and control policy has gradually exerted force on the demand side and supply side. Due to the relaxation of urban regulation and control, the end of the policy has been realized, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Wanlian Securities: the fundamentals of the real estate industry are gradually bottoming out, and the improvement policies under the urban implementation policies can still be expected
The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still at the bottom, and the sales end has not been significantly improved. Under the macro background of “stable growth”, the policy environment of the real estate industry is not expected to be worse, and the industry fundamentals are gradually bottomed out. Due to the implementation of urban policies, the improvement policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : if the land market does not recover and the market is expected to stabilize, the probability of stability maintenance policies in various regions will be issued one after another
According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, although the investment increased from January to February, the decline in sales was better than the market expectation. However, sales are still weak and residents’ willingness to buy houses is low. The capital of the industry is still very tight, the investment willingness and ability of real estate enterprises have declined sharply, and the land market is deserted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy objective of “stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations” will face great challenges. It is still a top priority to further strengthen market stability. If the land market does not warm up and the market expectation does not stabilize, the probability of stability maintenance policies will be introduced one after another.
We believe that the central government’s attitude towards real estate regulation has changed significantly. The current policy tone and encouragement direction are relatively clear, the support of demand side policies is expected to be more accurate and intensive, and the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is expected to be further strengthened.
The advantage of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
