Today (March 17), A-Shares continued yesterday’s strong rebound pattern. The three major stock indexes opened higher and maintained high consolidation at the beginning of the session. With the boost of various parties, the stock index further rose in the session, but the upper offensive degree was insufficient. In the afternoon, the stock index showed signs of rising and falling, but fortunately, the overall strength remained strong.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 1.4% to 321504 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.41% to 1228997 points; The gem index rose 2.87% to 271073.
From the disk point of view, it was another day of general rise. Stimulated by the good news, the real estate sector rose sharply all day. In addition, in terms of industry, semiconductors, traditional Chinese medicine, games, batteries, medical treatment, decoration, tourism hotels, biological products, electronic components, coal and auto parts also performed prominently. In terms of theme stocks, rental and sale rights, hair medical treatment, cloud games and blade batteries also increased.
In terms of funds, the central bank announced on March 17 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched an 80 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on March 17, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%. In view of the maturity of 10 billion yuan of reverse repo today, the people’s Bank of China invested a net 70 billion yuan in the open market today.
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message surface
1. According to the first financial report, China Clearing announced that the payment proportion of the minimum settlement provision for stock business will be reduced from 18% to 16% from April 2022. At the same time, in order to support the economic recovery and development of areas greatly affected by covid-19 epidemic, China Clearing has reduced and exempted some registration and settlement fees such as share and securities registration fees of two networks and delisting companies, non trading transfer fees of B shares and bonds, dividend and dividend distribution handling fees of closed-end funds since April 2022, and exempted those registered in Tianjin, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Jilin Province, Shanghai, Shandong Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi Province Registration and settlement expenses of issuers in Shenzhen and other regions in 2022.
2. According to China Securities News, Gao Feng, a spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce on March 17 that the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.5 times year-on-year in the first two months of 2022, accounting for 17.9% of the sales of new vehicles.
3. According to the national development and Reform Commission, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today (March 17). The details of this oil price adjustment are as follows: China’s gasoline and diesel prices increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively. National average: 0.59 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline; 95 gasoline will be increased by 0.62 yuan per liter; 0 diesel increased by 0.62 yuan per liter.
4. According to the central bank’s website, the people’s Bank of China recently approved the establishment license of China CITIC Financial Holding Co., Ltd. (Preparatory) and Beijing Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. The establishment of financial holding companies by non-financial enterprises that substantially control a variety of financial institutions and bring them under supervision is an important measure to implement the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and make up for the shortcomings of financial supervision. The establishment of financial holding companies is conducive to promoting non-financial enterprises to effectively isolate finance and industry, prevent cross infection of risks, realize centralized and unified management of financial equity, and promote standardized and sustainable development.
institutional views
For the current market, Rongwei securities mentioned that the market oversold and rebounded to form a general rising situation, but the short trend has not been repaired, and the general rising situation is difficult to be sustainable, so we temporarily define it as backpumping, and the backpumping height is judged between the 10 day moving average and the 30 day moving average. It is suggested to reduce the holdings of stocks at high levels and reduce their positions. In addition, it is suggested to adjust the position structure and improve the position proportion of undervalued varieties in digital economy, consumption and medical industry.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that from the performance of 13 oversold rebound industries since 2005, there are two kinds of good performance directions: one is that the external conflict is alleviated and the market returns to the high prosperity direction under the basic logic, such as agriculture and food and beverage in 2019 and TMT in June 2013; Second, in the direction of steady growth policy, continue to benefit, such as real estate and building materials in March 2014. Under the current external risk mitigation, focus on the high boom growth of short-term oversold, such as new energy with high growth of Fengguang lithium battery, semiconductor with accelerated expansion of wafer factories and unchanged domestic substitution, military industry with higher than expected military budget, covid-19 specific drugs and innovative drugs, etc; The continuation direction of steady growth orientation mainly focuses on the direction of low-carbon and digital new infrastructure, as well as the undervalued central enterprises of building materials catalyzed by the reform of Chinese enterprises in old infrastructure.
Previously, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that the meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, the “one bank, two sessions” and the statement of the Ministry of Finance on the reform of real estate tax are a set of policy combination boxing, which helps to repair the pessimism of investors. After the “policy bottom” is proved, the market bottom is not too far away. The Shanghai index may form a relatively solid bottom near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points, and A-Shares are expected to open a round of “oversold” rebound. On the one hand, the height and sustainability of the rebound depend on the sustainability of China’s care policies; On the other hand, it depends on peripheral factors such as the pace of the Fed’s table contraction and geographical relations. In terms of industry allocation, from the perspective of “oversold” rebound, it is preferred to have more early decline and high performance β Growth sectors, such as “new energy and Electronics”; In addition, pay attention to the “real estate” that benefits from the postponement of the real estate tax reform pilot.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that Jinwen will be a medicine guide for the expected repair of the market, which has re established confidence for the market and will return to shock consolidation after a sharp decline. However, in the future, the market still needs to see the real landing of steady growth. A complete prescription is indispensable, and trend opportunities still need to wait.
What do you buy? Stock investment opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics. Look for the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement around the low-risk characteristics. Investors’ risk appetite is still at a low level on the whole. Therefore, in terms of investment, we should focus on low-risk characteristic stocks, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) to G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Along the direction of inflation: coal and chemical resources; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pig, Baijiu and so on.
In addition, Minsheng Securities believes that after the policy bottom appears, the market will have a phased bottom seeking rebound, and the stabilization and phased rebound of growth stocks can also be expected. However, the long-term main line of future fundamentals should not be forgotten in the trading enthusiasm: China’s low inflation level will bring more room for the easing of credit policy in the future, and the elasticity of inflation will be stronger than the demand itself. Overseas inflation is not only driven by the gap between supply and demand, but also driven by the rebalancing of financial assets and physical assets under the formation of long-term inflation expectations. At present, the periodic price drop caused by the divergence of “stable growth” and the pricing correction of “peripheral situation” in the early stage will become a good opportunity for investors to buy resource stocks (physical asset capacity) to resist future inflation.
Taking advantage of the window period of market bottom seeking rebound, the agency suggests switching the layout in the rebound: (1) under the main line of inflation: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), crude oil (oil transportation, oil and gas exploitation) and coal. (2) Demand recovery: banking, real estate, construction. (3) Recommendation of growth sector: semiconductor, power grid and computer.
