Today (March 17), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued their strong rebound pattern. The three major A-share indexes opened higher in the morning, maintained shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, and then showed a further upward trend. However, in the afternoon, the index gradually fell in shock, and the increase converged. Fortunately, the overall strength was strong, and finally the three indexes closed in the red market.
In the face of short-term fluctuations, it is still cautious to maintain the super long-term support of foreign capital input, and it is suggested that in the face of short-term fluctuations in the upstream market, the willingness of foreign capital input is still relatively low.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed that there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Asset prices have basically reflected the recent negative factors, and the downward space has been relatively limited. We further suggest to balance the mentality, leave enough bullets, continue to pay attention to the opportunities formed in the continuous correction of high-quality targets in new energy, traditional Chinese medicine, semiconductor, national defense and military industry and other sectors with good prosperity, and pay close attention to the marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry, Choose the opportunity to allocate social services, real estate and other sectors that are expected to usher in a reversal.
sector:
I. real estate development
Wanlian securities mentioned that the fundamentals of the real estate industry are still at the bottom, and there is still no significant improvement at the sales end. Under the macro background of "stable growth", the policy environment of the real estate industry is not expected to be worse, and the industry fundamentals are gradually bottoming out. Due to the implementation of urban policies, the improvement policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, although the investment increased from January to February, the decline in sales was better than the market expectation. However, sales are still weak and residents' willingness to buy houses is low. The capital of the industry is still very tight, the investment willingness and ability of real estate enterprises have declined sharply, and the land market is deserted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy objective of "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations" will face great challenges. It is still a top priority to further strengthen market stability. If the land market does not warm up and the market expectation does not stabilize, the probability of stability maintenance policies will be introduced one after another.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that the voice of multiple departments is heard together, and the change of real estate policy is expected to be further strengthened. On March 16, vice premier Liu he presided over the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council and mentioned that new loans should maintain a moderate growth; With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks. Five departments including the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange have all made positive statements to maintain stability. For example, the Ministry of Finance said that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax this year; The cbcirc encourages the steady and orderly development of M & A loans and supports high-quality enterprises to receive M & A; The central bank has made it clear that it will maintain a moderate increase in new loans; The CSRC and the safe said that they would cooperate with relevant departments to resolve the risks of real estate enterprises and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Under the maintenance of stability, the change of real estate policy will be more active and pay attention to the investment opportunities of real estate stocks.
At present, the financing advantages of high-quality real estate enterprises are obvious, and the share of land acquisition has increased. The third batch of centralized land supply last year accounted for about 70% of the land acquisition by state-owned and central enterprises, and about 45% of the first batch. The profit margin of the land market improved due to the reduction of competition heat, the decline of premium rate and the adjustment of land transfer rules. High quality real estate enterprises will benefit relatively and usher in greater development opportunities. In terms of investment suggestions, we continue to recommend Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , etc.
II. Electronic ID card
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that in the early stage of the construction of digital identity infrastructure, there were scenes of tens of millions of terminals. The offline application of digital identity can be divided into three levels: the first level is the function of ID card, which is used to replace ID card, passport and residence permit in government affairs, hotels, airports and other places; The second level is the comprehensive replacement of various legal documents based on ID cards, including student cards, old-age cards, social security cards, etc; The third level, broad identity authentication and record, involves all access and authority related occasions, such as exhibition, home stay, public rental, etc.
In fact, it is estimated that there are only 3.02 million hospitals with more than 3.02 million medical facilities for each financial institution, which can meet the demand of medical institutions in the country, with an average of 3.02 million; 2) On the financial institution side, there are 220000 bank outlets, 10000 securities business departments and 6.4 million insurance salespeople across the country. Assuming that the average number of equipment for each bank outlet / securities business department / insurance salesperson is 10 / 5 / 1 respectively, the total demand is more than 8.5 million units; 3) There are 280000 hotels and 500000 home stay hotels in China. Assuming that each hotel has 2 home stay equipment, the total demand exceeds 1.5 million. The above is only the first stage of ID card level calculation. The space of level II and level III generalized authentication applications is at least one order of magnitude larger than that of level I applications.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the electronization of ID card does not simply convert the physical ID card into digital form, but needs to ensure that the electronic identity information can be marked with the corresponding subject and distinguished from other subjects without being intercepted, tampered with and forged with the support of cryptography, identity authentication and other technologies. According to the white paper on Eid digital identity system issued by the Third Research Institute of the Ministry of public security, digital identity is a mark representing the set of identity attributes of the subject. Considering the similar functional attributes of digital ID and electronic ID card, we believe that electronic ID card is expected to continue the PKI technology context of Eid.
The agency further analyzed that there are many relevant sectors of the digital ID card industry chain, and the core track manufacturers are expected to benefit from resonance. (1) Manufacturers of core technologies of identity authentication and recognition, including intelligent information collection and identity recognition manufacturers such as face recognition and fingerprint recognition, password solution manufacturers such as PKI, CA certification manufacturers, electronic signature manufacturers, etc; (2) construction of digital management platform for identity cards in public security departments, such as the Ministry of public security's citizen network identity recognition system, the Internet plus trusted identity authentication platform (CTID platform), etc. (3) Other auxiliary technology manufacturers, including smart chip hardware manufacturers, QR code recognition module manufacturers, and data security solution suppliers.
Under the wave of electronic ID card, manufacturers in the core sector are expected to fully benefit from the industry dividend. (1) Recommended bottom technology suppliers for electronic signature and identity authentication: Shanghai Weaver Network Co.Ltd(603039) ; (2) It is recommended to pay attention to the manufacturer of QR code identification module: Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) ; (3) It is suggested to pay attention to companies related to the identification industry chain: Shenzhen Emperor Technology Company Limited(300546) , Beijing Certificate Authority Co.Ltd(300579) , Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) , Linewell Software Co.Ltd(603636) , Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) , Client Service International Inc(300663) (not covered above).
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