What was the net profit last year? The exact amount is temporarily unknown; How much more than last year? Not lower than the level of the previous three quarters – on January 4, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH) disclosed a performance forecast, which made the market “confused”.
In the announcement that night, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 would not be lower than the level in the first three quarters of 2021, and the annual growth rate in 2020 would not be lower than 18.41% and not lower than the level in the first three quarters of last year, but did not disclose the specific amount of net profit. The company said that because the financial accounting of 2021 has not been finally completed, the accurate amount of net profit for that year cannot be determined temporarily
According to the above proportion, the annual net profit of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) last year was about 17.645 billion yuan at most and 17.5 billion yuan at least. In the first three quarters of last year, the company’s net profit reached 17.645 billion yuan. This means that in the fourth quarter of last year, the company’s operation did not contribute to profits, and may even have negative growth.
Why did this happen? Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) no description. It is worth noting that in recent years, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has accrued large asset impairment losses. From 2018 to 2020, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) credit impairment losses were RMB 2.187 billion, RMB 1.892 billion and RMB 6.581 billion respectively, and the accrual time was mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, mostly in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company accrued a credit impairment loss of 1.49 billion yuan. Will this happen again in the fourth quarter of last year?
fourth quarter net profit may be negative growth?
As of the closing on January 5, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) share price was 25.94 yuan / share, down 1.89%. Although the decline was small, it was ahead of the brokerage stocks.
The performance forecast of “unable to determine the accurate amount of net profit” is due to the need of share allotment. Last November, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) share allotment application was approved by the CSRC. The company said that according to relevant regulations, the company must meet the issuance conditions such as continuous profits in the last three fiscal years.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in the performance forecast, it is expected that the net profit and deduction of non net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company in 2021 will increase by no less than 18.41% and 17.66% respectively compared with the whole year of 2020, and will not be lower than the level of the first three quarters of 2021.
According to the above proportion, the maximum net profit of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) last year was 17.645 billion yuan and the minimum was 17.531 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of last year, the company’s net profit reached 17.645 billion yuan. In other words, the company’s net profit for the whole year of last year did not increase compared with the third quarter, but may decline. The future performance of the partnership will not be revised. For the whole fourth quarter, its operation did not contribute to profits, but may have negative growth.
In the first three quarters of 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) revenue and net profit increased. Data show that from January to September last year, the company achieved a revenue of 57.812 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.66%; Net profit also increased by 39.37% year-on-year, both exceeding the level of 2020.
Why did the fourth quarter net profit growth suddenly stop? Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) did not specify, but only said that the financial accounting in 2021 had not been finally completed, the accurate amount of net profit could not be determined temporarily, and the company operated normally in the fourth quarter.
is the impairment of large assets repeated?
Although we are firmly in the position of “the first brother of the securities industry”, in recent years, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) financial statements have a more obvious drag on performance – Credit impairment loss.
According to statistics, from 2018 to 2020, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) credit impairment losses were RMB 2.187 billion, RMB 1.892 billion and RMB 6.581 billion respectively. Among them, the impairment amount accrued in 2020 increased by 247% year-on-year, which is the listed securities company with the highest amount accrued in the same period. Among them, it is mainly due to the increase in the provision for credit impairment losses of resale financial assets and financing funds, so the total net profit of the company is reduced by 4.932 billion yuan.
From the time point of occurrence, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the above asset impairment provision mainly occurred in the second half of the year. Taking 2019 as an example, in the first three quarters of the year, the company accrued 725 million credit impairment losses, accounting for less than 40% of the whole year, and more than 60% of the remaining asset impairment losses occurred in the fourth quarter.
The same is true in 2020. According to the data, the company’s credit impairment losses in the interim report, the third quarterly report and the annual report of the current year were RMB 2.035 billion, RMB 5.027 billion and RMB 6.581 billion respectively, of which RMB 2.992 billion and RMB 1.554 billion were added in the third and fourth quarters respectively. However, it is slightly different that although the proportion of accrued amount in the second half of the year is high, the largest proportion is not in the fourth quarter, but in the third quarter.
From the perspective of specific business, securities investment business is the “hardest hit” of credit impairment. In 2020, among the 6.581 billion credit impairment losses accrued by the company, the loss of securities investment business was 6.525 billion yuan, accounting for 99%. Public information shows that due to the default of equity pledge repurchase business, the company passively became the top ten shareholders of * ST Kangde that year, involving a capital of about 1.4 billion yuan. In 2019, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) accrued credit impairment loss of RMB 1.892 billion. Among them, the securities investment business was 1.523 billion yuan, accounting for more than 80%.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, will the huge provision reappear? According to the third quarterly report, as of the end of September, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) accrued credit impairment loss of 1.49 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 70.36%, mainly due to the decrease of credit impairment loss accrued from resale financial assets. The impairment loss of other assets was 1.116 billion yuan, a significant increase of 210.59%, which was due to the provision for impairment loss of goodwill and fixed assets. This also means that the fourth quarter will be the key to whether the impairment of large assets will occur again.
(First Finance)
