Key investment points:
Important announcements of listed companies
Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) : Announcement on foreign investment
Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) : Announcement on signing the strategic cooperation framework agreement of Shuanghui muyuan Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) : Announcement on price adjustment of some products
In terms of key industry data tracking dairy products, the price of fresh milk fluctuated at a high level. As of December 29, 2021, the average price of raw and fresh milk in the main production areas was 4.28 yuan / kg, slightly down month on month, up 2.40% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to slow down.
In terms of meat products, the prices of piglets, live pigs and pork began to bottom up in May 2019 and continued the rising trend. The prices began to decline significantly around November last year, and the downward trend of pork prices was established in the medium term. At present, pork prices are near the low point and have rebounded slightly recently. As of December 31 this year, the prices of piglets, pigs and pork in 22 provinces in China had reached 28.74 yuan / kg, 16.30 yuan / kg and 25.18 yuan / kg respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 72.30%, – 49.89% and – 49.42% respectively.
Market performance review this week
In the past five trading days, the food and beverage sector fell 4.52%, the CSI 300 index fell 1.77%, and the industry lost 2.75 percentage points to the market, ranking downstream of 30 first-class industries of CITIC. Among them, alcohol decreased by 5.86%, beverages increased by 0.09% and food decreased by 0.68%.
In terms of individual stocks, Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) , * ST Cody and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) led the gains, while Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) led the declines.
Investment advice
This week, the performance of the food and beverage sector was relatively flat. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) announced the production and operation in 2021, which basically met the market expectations. At present, the industry fundamentals have not changed substantially. In the short term, the trend of the plate is dominated by emotion. From monthly data, we think that Baijiu is still in operation cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control. And the fine products of public products have already opened the price raising cycle. We need to pay close attention to the market acceptance after the price increase. On the plate side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, the upstream cost pressure may be relieved in the middle of next year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention. To sum up, we give the industry a “optimistic” investment rating and continue to recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369), Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887).
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risk; Risk of major food safety events.
(Bohai Securities)
