On January 4, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025) (hereinafter referred to as the action plan). According to the reporter, in December 2021, 13 documents favorable to photovoltaic power generation policies were issued at the national level and 12 documents at the local level.
Under the policy support, the investment opportunities of photovoltaic industry segments and individual stocks may be on the way. Combined with the secondary market on January 5, under the background of the deep correction of the three major A-share indexes, the photovoltaic concept plate closed up against the market, with an increase of 2% (the Shanghai index fell 1.02%).
He Li, general manager of zhizhishan investment, told the Securities Daily that from the perspective of the photovoltaic industry as a whole, the high upstream silicon material in 2021 significantly suppressed the demand of downstream power stations, and the growth rate of the industry was lower than expected. With the gradual release of silicon material supply in 2022, the price of terminal components entered the downward channel, and the industry as a whole will usher in a high prospect.
Long Hao, chairman of Jinding assets, believes that the photovoltaic industry is expected to become an important emerging industry driving high-quality economic development, and will receive strong policy support in terms of silicon materials, silicon wafers, materials and devices in the industrial technology innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. Table: market performance of some stocks in photovoltaic concept plate
Prepared by: Xu Yiming
Analysts generally believe that the action plan is expected to bring investment opportunities to the six segments of the photovoltaic industry. The reporter will interpret it in detail in different fields:
polysilicon
The action plan proposes to support low-energy and low-cost polysilicon production, improve product quality and stability, and expand breakthroughs in high-purity electronic grade polysilicon. Research and promote the automation and intelligence of polysilicon production and post-processing. Promote the establishment of online emergency command linkage system for polysilicon production.
According to the data of China Commercial Industry Research Institute, China's polysilicon output has been increasing in recent years. In 2020, China's polysilicon output reached 392000 tons, accounting for 73% of the world's total output. With the enhancement of polysilicon capacity release technology, the output is expected to reach 520000 tons in 2022.
It is noteworthy that domestic alternative technologies are accelerating the release of production capacity, the number of polysilicon imports is declining, and relevant Chinese enterprises are expected to usher in a good opportunity for development.
Statistics show that in 2020, China's polysilicon import volume was 100800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.24%. In the first half of 2021, China's polysilicon import volume reached 60100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and its export volume was 3200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 364.23%.
At present, the companies with the largest market share of polysilicon production in China are: Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , etc.
silicon rod / wafer
The action plan proposes to support the drawing of large-size monocrystalline silicon rod and improve the feeding capacity of single furnace. Study the cutting technology of large size, low loss and ultra-thin sheet. Promote automatic production lines and logistics lines, fully automatic integrated testing equipment, silicon chip coding and reading equipment, and establish silicon chip information traceability system.
Statistics show that the photovoltaic industry can be divided into four manufacturing links: silicon material, silicon wafer, battery wafer and module. The long R & D cycle and high technical barriers of silicon wafer have become factors restricting the development of many enterprises.
Taking the above-mentioned photovoltaic silicon wafer to study large-size as an example, in fact, behind the dispute over large-size is the dispute over cost and efficiency. For example, the photovoltaic modules made by silicon wafer enterprises producing more than 200 mm have the highest power generation efficiency, and the operating cost has decreased a lot.
Related subjects recommended by securities companies: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , etc.
crystalline silicon battery
The action plan mentioned that the application of automatic velvet making, automatic loading and unloading, automatic film guide machine, automatic film inserting machine, double-sided double testing and online defect analysis should be promoted to improve the ability of automatic transmission and intelligent perception between processes. Continue to improve the conversion efficiency of p-type crystalline silicon batteries, and carry out the R & D and industrialization of n-type TOPCON, hjt, IBC and other high-efficiency batteries.
Data show that crystalline silicon battery is the first generation Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery technology to enter the application. The action plan reflects that under the "double carbon goal", it will drive the iteration of crystalline silicon battery technology. The p-type battery is mainly BSF battery and perc battery. At present, the mainstream technologies with more investment in n-type battery are hjt battery and TOPCON battery.
In addition, the industry believes that in 2022, the crystalline silicon battery will benefit from the cost reduction caused by the decline of silicon wafer price, and the crystalline silicon battery sector is expected to usher in a profitable repair period.
photovoltaic module
The action plan mentioned that it supports the development and application of high-efficiency component production technologies such as multi main grid, non-destructive cutting and high-density packaging, and speeds up the R & D and industrialization of perovskite, laminated and other new battery components. Develop long-life and high safety BIPV photovoltaic components and photovoltaic tiles to support building roof photovoltaic action. Develop and promote component production automation equipment, and strengthen the formulation and implementation of unified component size standards.
As an important part of the production of photovoltaic power generation systems and photovoltaic application products, in recent years, China's export volume of photovoltaic modules is far greater than the import volume.
According to Zhiyan consulting data, in 2020, China exported 2.722 billion photovoltaic modules, an increase of 269 million over 2019, and imported 392 million, a decrease of 149 million over 2019; In the first half of 2021, China exported 1.667 billion photovoltaic modules and imported 223 million photovoltaic modules.
The industry expects that with the continuous expansion of the global photovoltaic industry and the continuous improvement of China's photovoltaic installed capacity, China's photovoltaic module output is expected to reach 145gw in 2021.
According to the data, according to the shipments of photovoltaic module manufacturers in 2021, the top ones are Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) respectively.
inverter
The action plan mentioned the development of inverters based on wide band gap materials, power devices and chips. Improve the safety of inverter system, real-time monitoring and processing, online PID suppression and repair, intelligent support tracking, high-performance IV scanning diagnosis, component level monitoring and other intelligent technologies. Establish inverter quality traceability mechanism to improve inverter manufacturing efficiency and product reliability.
According to Huang Xiuyu, an analyst at Dongguan securities, the policy has increased the attention to the safety of components and inverters, small enterprises with low product quality will be cleared by the market, and China's core distributed inverter enterprises will further improve the market share. It is suggested to pay attention to Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) .
It is noteworthy that mlpe inverter is a subdivided track in the field of distributed photovoltaic. At present, bull stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan such as solardedge have been born. At present, the track stock corresponding to the A-share market is Hemai.
The figure shows the monthly trend of solardedge's share price since the end of 2016
photovoltaic materials, parts and equipment
The action plan points out that we should develop high-quality packaging adhesive film, photovoltaic glass and backplane products, and carry out the R & D and application of conductive adhesive, special-shaped welding tape, intelligent junction box and other auxiliary materials for efficient packaging. Promote the industrialization of key components and key equipment for new high-efficiency batteries, and develop large-area uniform deposition technology for flexible thin-film batteries.
Taking photovoltaic glass as an example, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass in China in 2021 is about 12.8991 million tons, and the daily melting capacity is about 35340 tons / day, accounting for about 90% of the total global photovoltaic production capacity.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) analyst Fang Yanhe said that during the "14th five year plan" period, the average annual new installed capacity of PV in China is expected to reach 70gw-85gw. The continuous growth of photovoltaic installed capacity will bring strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The relationship between supply and demand is expected to be improved in 2022, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to rise. The A-share leading companies have many advantages such as resources and scale, and are expected to further improve the market share. They are mainly recommended Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) .
On the whole, Wu Qi, executive director of Wuxi Institute of digital economy, told the Securities Daily that China's energy structure and energy industry are accelerating the transformation from wind, photovoltaic and hydropower, which mainly rely on fossil energy, to clean energy. Vigorously developing photovoltaic and other new energy industries is a necessary choice to achieve the goal of "double carbon". However, in the process of photovoltaic development, it is also faced with problems such as difficult to mediate the contradiction between regional supply and demand, difficult grid connection, insufficient scenario application and so on.
(Securities Daily)
