With the end of the third batch of centralized land supply in Beijing and Zhengzhou, in addition to Ningbo, which will take the third local auction in January 2022, the centralized land supply in key cities for the first time in 2021 will come to an end.
In February 2021, the Ministry of natural resources required 22 key cities to implement the policy of “two centralization” of residential land. According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, this year-long “wholesale” of residential land supply, a total of 2064 residential land were sold in 22 cities, with a planned construction area of about 244 million square meters, and a total transfer fee of more than 2 trillion yuan.
land market from high heat to calm
On the whole, the first year of the implementation of the centralized land supply policy alternates between hot and cold. In the first batch of land supply, the hungry real estate enterprises scrambled for land fiercely; The second batch was rather deserted, with reserve price transactions and streaming auctions constantly staged everywhere; After policy adjustment, the third batch of land supply tends to be stable.
Specifically, in the first round of centralized land supply, real estate enterprises who want to make up their positions are more enthusiastic, which has created a hot start for centralized land supply, and land grabbing at the top occurs frequently.
For example, the first batch of 30 plots sold intensively in Beijing attracted more than 200 real estate enterprises, and 10 plots were transferred to the bidding procedure for the construction scheme of high-standard commercial housing because they touched all the upper limit of land price; The first batch of 57 plots of centralized land supply in Hangzhou were all sold, of which 41 plots entered the stage of self-supporting proportion.
In the second batch of centralized land supply, the pursuit of land has cooled significantly, and there has been an obvious phenomenon of “collective lying flat” in real estate enterprises. This is mainly because the high land premium and high proportion of land taken by leading enterprises in some cities in the first batch of centralized land supply violate the original intention of the policy. All localities have intensively adjusted the land auction rules of the second round of centralized land supply, and even delayed the announcement time of the second batch of centralized land supply for many times.
After the suspension, the heat of the restarted second batch of centralized land supply decreased significantly, and Waterloo events such as extension, withdrawal and streaming auction became the main theme of the second round of centralized land supply. In the second batch of 43 plots of centralized land supply in Beijing, only 17 have real estate enterprises, and the “license abandonment rate” exceeds 50%; A total of 31 plots were listed in Hangzhou, 7 plots were terminated and 10 plots were sold, and only 14 plots were finally traded, a decrease of 75% compared with the number of plots traded for the first time.
In the third round of centralized land supply, many cities have optimized the transfer conditions on the basis of the previous ones, such as the bidding qualification, the starting price of the plot, the land payment cycle, etc., and the flow auction rate has been controlled to a certain extent.
Among the 13 land parcels listed in Beijing, 9 land parcels were traded on the same day, 2 land parcels were sold, and the other 1 land parcel entered the on-site bidding link; Hangzhou also recovered significantly. The third batch of centralized land supply sold 35 parcels without first-class auction, and nearly 70% of the plots hit the top, and the overall premium rate rose to about 7%.
The trend of “one fire, two drops and three stabilizations” is also synchronized with the change of transaction premium rate. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, the average premium rate of the first batch was 14.78%, the average premium rate of the second batch was 4.04%, and the average premium rate of the third batch decreased to 2.39%.
“The gradual reduction of the land acquisition premium rate has controlled the land price from the source, which is related to the batch land supply. Of course, the tight capital chain of developers and the support of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the later stage also have a significant impact on the decline of the premium rate, but it is undeniable that the centralized land supply plays a role in reducing the land premium rate and thus reducing the house price.” Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, said.
central enterprises and state-owned enterprises dominate the market
With the ups and downs of centralized land supply in 2021, the main force of “land shooting army” is also your singing and I’m on the stage.
Statistics show that among the first batch of centralized land supply, the top five enterprises with land acquisition amount are China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Resources, rongchuang, Vanke and green city respectively. A total of 127 plots were obtained in 20 cities, with a total land acquisition amount of more than 150 billion yuan.
“Joint land acquisition” has also become the land strategy of many real estate enterprises. Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) led the list with a joint proportion of 67%, and thereafter Jinke, excellence and the first opening maintained a joint land acquisition proportion of more than 60%.
In the second batch of centralized land supply, due to the restrictions on the qualification and source of funds for participating in the auction, coupled with the deterioration of the industry financing environment, the enthusiasm of private real estate enterprises to participate in the auction has decreased, small and medium-sized real estate enterprises are more cautious in obtaining land, and local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises show their “bottom-up” strength.
According to the data of Yihan think tank, in the second batch of centralized land supply, the land acquisition amount and construction area of state-owned enterprises accounted for more than 45%, an increase of more than 20 percentage points compared with the first batch. On this basis, the land acquisition amount and construction area of state-owned enterprises accounted for 76% and 68% respectively. In terms of cities, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises account for more than 70% of the land acquisition amount in 14 cities, and 90% or more in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
The positive phenomenon of land acquisition by state-owned enterprises is more obvious in the third centralized land supply. According to the data of Shengang securities, among the third centralized land supply cities, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Changchun, Wuxi and other cities accounted for more than 70%. Among them, all the plots of land traded for the third centralized land supply in Changchun were won by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. Among the 20 lands traded in Wuxi, 17 were taken by the government platform.
Urban investment companies have also made obvious actions in the third batch of centralized land supply. Their land acquisition ratio in Shenzhen and Changzhou exceeds 80%, that in Wuxi, Shenzhen, Suzhou and other cities exceeds 70%, and that in Chongqing, Xiamen, Shanghai and Jinan is 40% – 50%. Huachuang securities research report pointed out that the increase in the proportion of urban investment and land acquisition has made up for the significant reduction of transfer income caused by developers’ cautious land acquisition to a certain extent.
The agency predicts that in the future competition pattern, the advantages of central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises with excellent operation and financial conditions are expected to expand.
“The centralized land supply mode has initially achieved the purpose of a long-term mechanism, and has made it clear in terms of large-scale, linkage between land price and house price in hot cities, and competition rules, so as to minimize the disguised pull of ‘competition for construction’ on land price, and also protect the land acquisition aspirations of large, medium and small developers.” Li Yujia believes that from the perspective of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the centralized land supply will continue to be implemented, but one point to pay attention to is that the land supply mode needs to be adjusted according to the market situation.
(Zhongxin Jingwei)
