The three major A-share indexes collectively closed down today, of which the Shanghai index fell 1.02%, falling below the integer mark of 3600 points to close at 3595.18 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.80% to close at 14525.76; The gem index fell 2.73% to close at 3161.51. The market turnover reached 1.3 trillion yuan, and the number of falling stocks was close to 3500. Most industry sectors closed down, new energy and domestic chip sectors fell sharply, aerospace, traditional Chinese medicine and power industries led the decline, and the game sector strengthened against the market.
Today’s news:
1. The best analysts in 30 fields collectively predict 2022: is the bull still there? These plates have historic opportunities!
2. “The price rises like a rocket” some Chinese herbal medicines rise by more than 800% a year! What happened?
3. The trillion track is heavy again! Can the sudden positive of the five sectors just fall by 130 billion stimulate the rise of stock prices again?
4. More than 10 liquor companies announced price increases for their core single products or faced the risk of tax increase
5. The subsidy standard for new energy vehicles declined by 30%. The survey found that the vast majority of vehicle enterprises were not in a hurry to raise prices
6. There are 22 pre added shares in the annual report, and the annual performance is expected to double (with shares)
7. New regulations for bankruptcy reorganization of listed companies: in principle, trading will not be suspended during reorganization to prevent insider trading and deceptive reorganization
8. Price increase of 1000 yuan / ton! Another titanium dioxide company followed up the price increase, and the performance of several leading companies increased by more than 100%
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) according to the analysis, from the perspective of disk style, value stocks, whether large or small, crush growth stocks, which may be a correction to the market style of the past year. For individual investors, they might as well see more and move less before the current market is bright. For the market, especially some high-level varieties, we still need to remain vigilant. In terms of operation, it is recommended to control the position and moderately increase the configuration of low-level blue chips, so as to achieve balanced position. In the direction, we can focus on difficult reversal industries, big finance and new and old infrastructure, and chase up the rise carefully.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, and the index market is still on the way. In 2022, the market is expected to usher in an index level rise, and even a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014”. 1. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the “steady growth” on the policy side has been in force, and the market has entered the window of “wide currency” and “wide credit”. Positive signals such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction continue to appear, and the market expectation of policy relaxation will continue to rise. 2. The relaxed credit margin environment usually leads to the repair and rise of heavyweight sectors such as finance and real estate, which is often accompanied by the rise of index level. 3. The difference from 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “real estate does not fry” and “trust but not lift” of infrastructure construction, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinning relaxation. On the other hand, 2014 gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle, but the current market leverage is weak. Taking floor leverage as an example, the proportion of two financial institutions in the total market turnover increased rapidly from 2013 to 2015, and was close to 30% by the end of 2014. In contrast, the current two financial transactions account for only about 7.6%, and institutional funds are still the leading force in the market.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that looking forward to the restless market in spring of 2022, it is suggested that the “spring restlessness” of A-Shares grasp the “double carbon new cycle” and economic changes. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that some investors are worried that the huge IPO of China Mobile will have a negative impact on the market and think there is no need to worry too much. At present, the market is still in the “feasible stage”. It is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the “double carbon new cycle” and the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry under the guidance of the “high-frequency expected prosperity observation model”, and layout the restlessness in spring. It is suggested to continue the balance between high area and low area for industry configuration, (1) reduce the reserve requirement and stabilize the real estate chain (securities companies, white power and consumer building materials); (2) “Double carbon new cycle” + steady growth of new infrastructure (power battery, green power operation, coal chemical industry and military industry); (3) Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that at the beginning of the year, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held successively. Under the triple pressure of “demand contraction, supply impact and weakening expectation”, the “steady growth” policy will be actively promoted. Traditional infrastructure, real estate and new infrastructure (new energy, high-end manufacturing and hard technology) are the three main focuses: the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit in 2022 in advance, and infrastructure investment was carried out moderately in advance; The real estate policy seeks “stability”, because the city implements policies + encourages real estate enterprises to merge and resolve industry risks; Structural adjustment and progress, new energy, hard science and technology are the key support directions. In January, due to the spread of sporadic epidemic in China (some regions or local Chinese New Year celebrations) and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the A-share industry may show differentiation, and the rapid rotation of plates has become the main feature. In January, the market is well balanced. Three main lines of allocation: 1. “Traditional infrastructure + real estate” under the background of “steady growth”, such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of “high-end manufacturing & hard technology”: new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), such as meta universe (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that, first of all, in the next six months, whether it is the top-down estimation or the correction based on the individual stock profit expectation, A-Shares are in the profit downward cycle from 2021q4 to 2022q2, and the marginal change of performance begins to tend to the market. Secondly, since 2021, institutional conglomerates have continued to kill the valuation, and now it has fallen back to five years. From the perspective of the relationship between valuation and profit, the valuation of traditional core assets (excluding institutional group stocks of new energy and semiconductor) deviates from the profit expectation, and has medium-term allocation value at this stage. Moreover, as the main incremental force in 2021, the probability of public offering and private placement continuing to exceed expectations in 2022 is decreasing. On the contrary, allocated funds (venture capital) may have a marginal positive contribution in 2022. In conclusion, the significant excess return of small ticket in 21 years is driven by variables such as profit cycle, market price performance ratio and incremental funds, and these conditional variables are reversing in the medium term in the future. Therefore, perhaps from the dimension of longer cycle, small ticket can still continue to create excess; However, in the next six months, it should be the balance period of size and style, and we should pay more attention to the return of the market.
