Event: on January 5, 2022, the three major A-share indexes opened low and went low. The Shanghai stock index fell 1.02%, the gem index fell 2.73% and the CSI 300 fell 1.01%. In terms of industries, defense industry (- 4.51%), electronics (- 3.67%), power equipment (- 3.62%) and other industries led the decline. In the first two trading days of 2022, the Shanghai stock index fell by 1.23% and the gem index fell by 4.85%.
1) From overseas expectations, the market is repricing the tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy. This week, the Fed is about to release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in December 2021. Hawkish expectations have pushed the US bond yield curve steeper. On January 4, the US bond yield rose to 1.66%, and the US dollar index recovered 96. The market’s expectations for macro liquidity have been continuously revised, increasing the pressure of market adjustment.
2) The short-term impact of large IPOs on the market. The largest IPO of A-Shares in recent 10 years was launched. On January 5, 2022, China Mobile was listed and raised 56 billion yuan. However, from past experience, the impact of large IPOs on the market is short-term. The last return of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) to A-Shares (raising nearly 54 billion yuan) also promoted the short-term adjustment of the market, but then the market gradually returned to the right track.
3) Revision of market profit expectation. Since the release of the third quarterly report in November, the optimistic expectation of the growth sector has become an important catalyst for the “restless winter” market. With the recent gradual entry into the window period for the release of the performance forecast of listed companies, the revision of market expectation has also accelerated the adjustment of some boom tracks. With the gradual realization of subsequent performance, varieties that really maintain high profit growth are still expected to usher in a new round of market.
4) The recent style switching of the market is only a preview, and a truly comprehensive market switching will appear in the middle of the year. It must be noted that the realization of the rise in consumer goods prices will be a signal to promote the overall switching of the market. Considering that there is still a need for loose monetary policy, after the resumption of work in spring, the market is gradually optimistic about economic expectations, and the market can still be more optimistic in the first half of the year. Especially for the growth sector, if there is any adjustment, it will be an excellent layout window period.
Risk tip: Overseas epidemic exceeded expectations, Sino US trade friction exceeded expectations, and capital flight from emerging markets exceeded expectations.
（ Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) ）
