Current investment tips:
This week, the oil price is steadily rising, the overseas natural gas price remains high, the spot price of China’s chemical futures is gradually stabilizing, and the market sentiment is gradually stabilizing. Although the cyclical products are in the off-season at present, with the advent of the peak season in spring, the prices of some coal chemicals, chemical fertilizers and pesticides continue to rise due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games and production restrictions in winter. In the short term, it is suggested to focus on the undervalued white horse leader and pesticides Potash fertilizer, electronic chemicals and other fields. The price of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) potash fertilizer increased by 300 yuan / ton this week. With the signing of the large contract price, it is expected that the price difference of potash fertilizer outside China is expected to close. In addition, the tire sector affected by sea freight is still expected to continue to benefit.
The central economic work conference instructed rectification, “scientific assessment, new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from” double control “of energy consumption to” double control “of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition.” It is expected that the light hydrocarbon projects of Wanhua will accelerate, and the raw material coal of coal chemical projects in Hualu and Luxi will be effectively alleviated. At the same time, it puts forward the “transformation” from “double control of energy consumption” to “double control of total carbon emission and intensity”, which is conducive to eliminating backward production capacity, promoting advanced technology, and encouraging chemical enterprises to use more green hydrogen.
Investment analysis opinions:
Adhering to the value, the first-line white horse pays more attention to alpha, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (long-term high R & D investment + high capital expenditure to support development), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (benefiting from the expansion of oil coal ratio, accelerating the expansion and layout of new energy and new materials in Dezhou and Jingzhou), Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (Youjia project continues to promote the growth of the company, and pesticide creation is expected to become the main development direction in the future) Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (the global leader in vitamins and the continued implementation of large capital development support to lay a foundation for long-term growth), Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) (the titanium industry maintains an upward trend and arranges new energy materials), Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (the global leader in sweeteners, and the superposition of high growth rate tracks and capacity expansion opens a new round of growth), Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (China’s new retail + global capacity expansion is expected to become the world’s first-line leader) Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (improved ownership structure + accelerated capital expenditure).
Attention to subdivided leaders: pay attention to Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and Zangger mining (double leaders of potassium and lithium). With the implementation of the contract price of potassium fertilizer, the price difference of potassium fertilizer outside China is expected to narrow, and the lithium extraction from salt lakes is expected to expand steadily. Phosphorus chemical industry and titanium dioxide enterprises integrated layout of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate new energy materials, focusing on Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) , and other suggestions on Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) ; Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) 、 Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) 、 Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) ； Metal silicon and silicone Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) ; Fluorine chemical related companies pay attention to China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) ; Calcium carbide-bdo-pvc boom upward concern Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) ; The rising price of staple grain drives the growth of agrochemical demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) for pesticides; Coal chemical industry leaders Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ; The auto industry chain pays attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) , Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) , Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ; Water reducing agent faucet Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ; Methionine bottom inversion focus Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) ; Soda ash focuses on Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) .
Market hot spots gradually switch to segmentation and growth. It is recommended to pay attention to 1. Semiconductor materials: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; Panel materials Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Phichem Corporation(300398) ; 2。 Wind power photovoltaic materials: Hubei Huitian New Materials Co.Ltd(300041) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) ; 3。 Tail gas catalytic materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) ; 4。 Lithium battery materials: Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) , phosphorus chemical industry, etc; 5。 Military materials: Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) ; 6。 Bio based materials Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) ; 7。 Fine chemical materials: Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) .
Downstream demand has gradually entered the off-season. The mainstream negotiation of aggregated MDI in China market is 20250 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton month on month last week, and the mainstream negotiation of pure MDI in China market is 20500 yuan / ton, flat month on month last week. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) it is announced that Ningbo phase I and phase II have a total capacity of 1.2 million tons for 45 days. In January 2022, the listing price of MDI in China was 21500 yuan / ton (unchanged month on month); The listing price of pure MDI is 22500 yuan / ton (down 1300 yuan / ton month on month).
Risk tips: 1) the progress of new projects is not as expected; 2) Export obstruction led to a sharp drop in the prices of some chemical products; 3) Overseas public health incidents lead to unstable start-up of the industry and affect the profits of enterprises
(Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Securities Research Institute)
