At the beginning of 2022, the expected cross year market of A-Shares was not staged. Instead, the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors that rose sharply in the early stage made a sharp correction for two consecutive days, which frustrated market sentiment.
The newly released policy "big gift bag" also failed to stimulate the rise of photovoltaic sector. On January 4, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national energy administration and other five departments jointly issued the plan, proposing that by 2025, the intelligent level of photovoltaic industry will be significantly improved and industrial technological innovation will make a breakthrough. However, as of the closing on January 5, the PV index had fallen by more than 3%, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) had fallen by nearly 4%, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516. SH), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH), Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) (688598. SH) and other stocks with large early gains had all suffered heavy falls.
In fact, since December 2021, the photovoltaic sector has continued to decline, with the average and median rise and fall of 65 stocks being - 10.44% and - 12% respectively. The actual main business of Shouhang High-Tech Energy Co.Ltd(002665) (002665. SZ) with the highest increase is not related to photovoltaic.
In the just past year 2021, the photovoltaic industry has been seriously "rolled in", and a large number of new players have poured into photovoltaic silicon wafers and silicon materials. All kinds of large-scale expansion of production has made the market worried about overcapacity. At present, the "price war" of silicon wafer may have started. How will the new policy affect the players who blindly expand production after setting the tone for the development of photovoltaic industry in the next five years?
the PV sector still pulled back more than
In the first two trading days of 2022, the PV track has no scenery in the past. On January 5, the PV inverter index and PV index both fell by more than 3%, of which the PV inverter index fell by more than 8.5% in two trading days.
In terms of individual stocks, from January 4 to 5, 14 of the 65 photovoltaic concept stocks fell by more than 10%, including Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) (603396s. SH), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) (300118. SZ), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (688390. SH), Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556. SH), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274. SZ).
Most of the stocks with the highest decline are those with the highest increase in 2021. "From the perspective of valuation, the adjustment of photovoltaic track stocks is mainly due to the excessive and rapid increase in the early stage, and the stock price overdraft the future. On the one hand, the annual performance of photovoltaic sector in 2021 has not been implemented, and the growth of individual stocks needs to be verified. On the other hand, the logic of 'not light in the off-season' of installation demand in the first quarter has not been verified, and the funds in the field are no longer easy to catch up." A new energy industry analyst told the first financial reporter.
Driven by the vision of "double carbon", the medium and long-term growth of photovoltaic industry seems beyond doubt. On the other hand, in 2021, the demand for new installed capacity in the downstream of photovoltaic in the whole year was lower than expected, and the soaring price of silicon made the upstream enterprises the biggest winner. On the other hand, capital scrambled to overweight photovoltaic, a new round of capacity expansion has been started, and the upstream price rise has attracted a large number of new players. Seizing market share has become the primary task of enterprises, while technological innovation has been temporarily put aside.
The first financial reporter noted that on January 4, the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025) (hereinafter referred to as the action plan) jointly issued by five ministries and commissions focused on the word "intelligence", focusing on the improvement of the intelligent level of photovoltaic industry and industrial technological innovation. The action plan proposes that by 2025, the intelligent level of the photovoltaic industry will be significantly improved and breakthroughs will be made in industrial technological innovation. The mass production conversion efficiency of the new high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery has been significantly improved, forming a complete supporting capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, equipment, materials and devices.
Among the specific tasks, the action plan calls for accelerating industrial technological innovation. We will promote technological innovation in the intelligent photovoltaic industry chain and accelerate the development and breakthrough of large-size silicon wafers, high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and modules. Consolidate the foundation of supporting industries and promote the technological upgrading of key raw and auxiliary materials, equipment, parts and components of intelligent photovoltaic. Carry out cross technology research on the combination of intelligent photovoltaic and building energy conservation, transportation, green agriculture and other fields. Improve the level of intelligent manufacturing.
In terms of helping carbon peak and carbon neutralization in various fields, the action plan proposes to develop intelligent photovoltaic industry, intelligent photovoltaic transportation, intelligent photovoltaic buildings, intelligent photovoltaic agriculture, intelligent photovoltaic villages, intelligent photovoltaic power stations, intelligent photovoltaic communication and innovative applications of intelligent photovoltaic.
photovoltaic has entered the stage of intelligent development. Why does the silicon material leader blindly expand production
The fundamental driving force for the development of photovoltaic industry is the declining cost and rising installed scale. In the view of a photovoltaic practitioner, the development of the photovoltaic industry has gone through many detours from the "0 to 1" stage. The "1 to 10" stage is not only the installed capacity, but also the development stage driven by technological innovation.
"In the short term, the photovoltaic supply chain has played a game, and the price rise has formed a relatively extreme industrial environment, which is not conducive to long-term healthy development. The difficulty of expanding the production of silicon wafer, battery and module is relatively low, and the return period of investment is also less than that of polycrystalline silicon, so it has attracted many new entrants. The sharp rise in silicon price in 2021 has deterred downstream manufacturers and strong wait-and-see mood. In silicon wafer and battery There is also a serious surplus in the capacity of components compared with that of polycrystalline silicon. " The photovoltaic practitioner said, "blindly expanding production and seizing share can easily lead to 'big ship is difficult to turn around', especially photovoltaic raw materials belong to a typical cycle industry, and the risk of overcapacity stage after excessive price peak expansion needs to be vigilant."
The profit of polysilicon link is closely related to its price. The profitability of polysilicon enterprises largely depends on the polysilicon price, and the excess profit often comes from its price elasticity. Due to the sharp rise in silicon material prices in 2021, almost all silicon material leaders in China have thrown out no small production expansion plans.
In the face of the dividend of high priced silicon materials, on the 4th, the silicon material leader Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) (688303. SH) decided to continue to expand production with great strides and planned to increase the capital of 9.999 billion yuan to the wholly-owned subsidiary Inner Mongolia Daquan new energy Co., Ltd. for the investment, construction and operation of "100000 t / a high-purity polysilicon + 1000 t / a semi conductor polysilicon" of Baotou phase I project.
At the same time, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) also adjusted the implementation location, implementation subject and investment amount of IPO raised investment projects. Among them, the original construction site of the "project with an annual output of 1000 tons of high-purity semiconductor materials" is "Shihezi new chemical materials Industrial Park", which is now changed to "Inner Mongolia Baotou Jiuyuan Industrial Park, Jiuyuan District, Baotou City". The investment amount is changed from 421 million yuan to 550 million yuan, and the new 129 million yuan is invested by the company's own funds.
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) said that the capital increase will help the company promote the investment and construction of the project as soon as possible, expand the production capacity of high-purity polysilicon, and further consolidate and expand the market share of the company's high-purity polysilicon business.
It is worth mentioning that the investment amount of Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) in more than one month has exceeded 46 billion yuan, including the 33 billion yuan silicon material expansion plan thrown by the company in December 2021. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) had a monetary capital of 4.248 billion yuan, which was far from enough to cover the amount required by the investment plan.
At present, the price of silicon material continues to decline month on month. According to the latest data of pvinfolink, the average price of polycrystalline silicon compact is 230 yuan / kg, and the price of silicon has fallen for four consecutive weeks. It is generally expected in the industry that the capacity release of silicon material in the second half of 2022 will be significantly faster than that in the first half of 2022, and the decline of price will accelerate month on month.
"Compared with the achievements brought by technological innovations such as large silicon wafers and new batteries, the technological innovation space at the silicon end is limited. Raw material enterprises rely on the peak of the cycle to release excess profits. Paradoxically, the photovoltaic supply chain game in 2021 is mainly due to the continuous shortage of silicon, and the fundamental problem cannot be solved without expanding production, but it is difficult to expand production 'just right' under the cluster of capital With extravagant demand, silicon materials may have overcapacity in 2023. " The aforementioned analyst said.
The above photovoltaic industry insiders added: "the promotion of the whole county, industrial photovoltaic power generation and the innovation of basic materials and cell technology are the focus of attention in the past 2-3 years, especially the development of large-size silicon wafers and cell modules. The leaders of A-share related industrial chain are expected to come out first. The supporting development of 'photovoltaic + transportation' remains to be seen."
(First Finance)
