This year's style conversion is earlier than in previous years!
in the first two trading days of 2022, A-Shares failed to achieve a "good start", and the Shanghai index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index fell by 1.23%, 2.23% and 4.85% respectively. The market fell into disagreement again.
It's very cold at high altitude! The popular track stocks in the early stage were the main force of this round of decline, especially the new energy track, which suffered the most. The lithium extraction index of Salt Lake fell by nearly 9% in two days, the photovoltaic inverter fell by more than 7%, the energy storage and lithium mine index fell by more than 6%, and the power battery, photovoltaic and wind power index fell by nearly 5.9%. Statistics show that from January 4 to 5, the overall market value of A-share new energy track evaporated more than 590 billion yuan.
In contrast, banks, home appliances, real estate and other sectors with poor performance last year have changed into "sweets" and won the favor of many funds in the past two days. The home appliance and real estate sectors both rose by more than 2%, and the banking sector also rose by 1.94%. The influx of funds underestimated the value of the blue chip sector to avoid risk.
The sharp change of market style can not help but recall the collapse of Baijiu and other Baozhuang stocks after the Spring Festival last year. In the future, how will the market deduce? How should investors operate?
new energy racing track! Market value evaporated by more than 590 billion
After two years on the bull Road, the overcrowded new energy track overturned in the first two trading days of 2022.
On January 4, the photovoltaic inverter index fell by more than 5%, the salt lake lithium extraction index fell by 4%, and the photovoltaic roof and lithium mine index fell by more than 3%; On January 5, the lithium extraction index of Salt Lake fell by nearly 5%, the power battery and wind power generation index fell by more than 4%, and the lithium battery, energy storage and photovoltaic inverter index fell by more than 3%.
In just two days, the market value of the new energy track evaporated more than 590 billion yuan. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by nearly 7%, and the market value evaporated by 94.4 billion yuan; Byd Company Limited(002594) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) fell by more than 5%, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) fell by 9%, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) fell by more than 15%, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) fell by more than 11%, and the market value of the above companies evaporated by more than 20 billion yuan; In addition, Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) decreased by more than 15%, and Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) decreased by more than 10%.
Before this correction, the bull market in the new energy sector lasted two years. During this period, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) increased by more than 450%, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) increased by nearly 400%, and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) increased by more than 300%; Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) increased by more than 8 times, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) increased by nearly 13 times, and Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) increased by more than 15 times.
Zhao Wei, chief market analyst of Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) believes that the operating characteristics of A-share market structure in 2021 are "roller coaster" or "bungee jumping", which promotes high-frequency trading of funds inside and outside the market to win short-term returns. The performance of "Mao" shares in 2020 in 2021 makes funds no longer believe that medium and long-term trend investment can obtain excess returns. When consensus expectations reach the peak, This is a good opportunity for capital profit taking, which is why since the fourth quarter of last year, the stock prices of new energy and semiconductors began to weaken. As soon as the institutional ranking war ended in 2021, they took profits and stopped fighting, so as to explore new investment lines for the ranking of the new year. Zhao Wei said that "running fast" is the reason why institutions sell off new energy and semiconductors with the highest increase in the previous year at the beginning of 2022.
Zhao Wei said that due to the high valuation of new energy vehicles, there is little room to continue to pull out the valuation. To improve the valuation, it can only be achieved by improving the "core competitiveness" of new energy. Zhao Wei said that the future core competitiveness of new energy vehicles lies in on-board technology, just like the mobile phone in those years. Whoever master the core technology has the market voice and pricing power.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that there has been a continuous correction in new energy recently. First, the internal reason is that the previous increase was too large, so there was profit taking. Second, subsidies decline. Subsidies for new energy vehicles may drop by about 30% in 2022, which also affects short-term performance. However, in the long run, the substitution of new energy for traditional energy is the general trend and still deserves attention.
the rise of undervalued sectors such as banks, real estate and household appliances
Contrary to the sharp correction of the new energy sector, the undervalued blue chip sector has received a lot of capital attention in the past two days, significantly outperforming the market index.
From January 4 to 5, the overall growth of household appliances and real estate reached 2.39%, 2.34% and 1.94% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, among home appliance stocks, Kennede Electronics Mfg.Co.Ltd(002723) rose by 21%, Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) rose by more than 17%, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) rose by more than 9%, and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) rose by more than 5%. In the whole of last year, the overall decline in the household appliance sector exceeded 19%.
Among real estate stocks, Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) , Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) rose nearly 21% in the past two days, Sanxiang Impression Co.Ltd(000863) rose more than 17%, Huaqiang city a rose more than 10%, and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) , Beijing Dalong Weiye Real Estate Development Co.Ltd(600159) rose more than 7%. Last year, the overall decline in the real estate sector was close to 12%.
In the past two days, bank stocks also performed well, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) rose by more than 5%, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) rose by more than 4%, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) rose by 3.95%, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) rose by nearly 3%. In 2021, the banking sector as a whole fell by 4.58%.
Yang Delong believes that there has been a certain switch in the style of the market in the short term. From the speculation and growth last year, it has gradually turned to the allocation value, and the undervalued blue chips have ushered in a rebound opportunity.
why did A-Shares weaken at the beginning of the year? How to operate in the future?
Back to the market, A-Shares in 2022 failed to achieve a "good start". On January 4 and January 5, the market index fell for two consecutive trading days. The declines of Shanghai index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index were 1.23%, 2.23% and 4.85% respectively. The market was confused again.
Zheng Xiaoxia and Liu Chao, analysts of Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) , pointed out that the main reasons for the sharp decline in the market of recently and on January 5 are: on the one hand, after the end of the quarter effect, the central bank has greatly recovered the liquidity of open market operations, and the sharp return of short-term funds has restrained the strong high valuation sector; On the other hand, the jump in the yield of 10-year US bonds will also have a short-term inhibition on the holding together plate. Third, China Mobile was listed on January 5, diverting some market funds. After the recent emotional disturbance subsides, the restless market can still be expected.
Zhao Wei, chief market analyst of Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , said that the historical law of shows that the market did not achieve a "good start" at the beginning of the new year, which will not affect the market trend of the whole year. The expected release of monetary and fiscal policies in the first quarter of 2022 is still a difficult investment time window this year, and the loose policy environment is conducive to the rising trend of the market, The investment opportunities of blue chips deserve attention.
Zhao Wei said that the A-Shares in 2022 have inherited and changed in 2021. What has changed is the structure. What has been inherited is the "three lows", that is, what can run through the main line of the structural market in 2022 is no longer the new energy and hard core technology in 2021, but the applied technology with "soft power". What has been inherited is the trading market. When the market risk preference is still low, it is low, low Undervalued "three low" stocks are still expected to be a prerequisite for funds to continue to tap structural market opportunities. First defense and then counterattack are the key to the transformation of attack and defense rhythm this year. Operationally, light index, heavy individual stocks, bargain hunting, focus on finance, "Chinese prefix" and "national brand" stocks, electromechanical equipment, environmental protection and "three low" bottom stocks, and avoid "three high" stocks and delisting risk stocks.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that 2022 is a big year for value investment, which is very different from 2021. In 2021, it is mainly the market of cyclical stocks, growth stocks and small cap stocks, while blue chips with excellent performance perform relatively poorly. In the new year, the main line of market investment has gradually turned to performance as the king. Now the A-share market has gradually entered the era of institutional investors, and the proportion of institutional investment is higher and higher. Residents' savings have been greatly transferred to the capital market, and the circulation of new funds has remained at a high level. In 2020, the circulation of new funds reached a record high of 3.16 trillion, compared with nearly 3 trillion last year. This will bring opportunities for high-quality stocks of a shares. Because most fund managers will value the fundamentals and valuation of the company. These new funds may allocate high-quality leading stocks with excellent performance to seize long-term opportunities.
(brokerage China)
