Historically, January is often the "hot season" for fund issuance. Both channels and fund companies attach great importance to the marketing window of "a good start".
But this year, the "good start" failed. Chinese reporters from securities companies learned from many channels that the fund sales situation in the beginning of the year was very bleak. Not only did there be no explosion of funds, but even the single digit raising scale of several funds in a single day. Even the star blue chip fund managers were at the helm, which was tragic compared with the frequent grand events of "sunshine base" and "10 billion base" in the same period of previous years.
In this regard, many market participants attributed it to the recent falling market. Some people in the industry said that the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. They may be worried about the sharp switching of style at the beginning of last year this year, and the new fund's position is at a high level again.
failed to make a good start, but the sales volume is poor with a large number of stars
In the first week of 2022, there were many stars in the fund issuance market, including Han Chuang of Dacheng Fund, Tang Xiaobin of GF fund and Yang Dong, who ranked top last year, as well as Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund, Feng Mingyuan of Cinda Aoyin fund, Ren Xiangdong of Xingzheng Global Fund and Lu Bin of HSBC Jinxin fund; Both GF fund, Xingzheng Global Fund and other head fund companies compete fiercely, and BlackRock fund, a foreign fund company, competes on the same stage.
In terms of channels, major banks and securities companies attach great importance to the fund sales situation in the beginning of the year. Among them, the "king of retail" China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) cooperated with Yinhua Fund and HSBC Jinxin fund to sell the three-year holding of Yinhua Xinxing by Li Xiaoxing and the selection of HSBC Jinxin research by Lu Bin respectively; Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) chose Han Chuang, the current hot fund manager, and Cui Jianbo, a veteran with nearly 13 years of investment experience. Dacheng Juyou growth and founder Fubang Taili were held for 12 months, all of which were mainly sold by Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) .
therefore, many people in the industry have predicted that under the dual guarantee of star fund managers and channel promotion, the fund issuance market in January will usher in a "good start" and may even have multiple explosive funds.
But obviously, this expectation has not been realized, and even some channel people directly use "terrible" to describe the recent fund issuance market. Chinese reporters from securities companies learned from multiple channels that the single day raising scale of multiple funds is only "single digits", and even star fund managers are at the helm.
For example, according to a source, a top 10 fund manager in 2021 only received 600 million yuan subscription on the first day of the issuance of the new fund; A top flow fund manager with a management scale of more than 50 billion raised only about 900 million yuan on the first day of issuance. Last year, the fund manager also issued a new fund at the beginning of the year in January, raising nearly 5 billion yuan in half a day, and the first raising scale exceeded 10 billion yuan.
In addition, some sources said that even if a new fund mainly invested in Hong Kong stocks was mainly sold by a large bank and endorsed by many years of investment experience at home and abroad, it only received about 500 million yuan on the first day of issuance.
"I'm really worried about how our new fund will be sold." A fund person who will release his star fund manager's new product next week said.
market adjustment and style switching, and the basic people have a strong wait-and-see mood
Historically, January is often the "hot season" for fund issuance. For example, two years ago, Liu Gesong's Guangfa technology pioneer launched the first shot of the explosion fund in 2020 with a subscription scale of more than 90 billion; In January 2021, a total of 16 10 billion level pop funds were born in the whole market, of which 8 funds were sold out in one day. The initial raising scale of GF balanced optimization, e fund competitive advantage enterprises and other funds was even nearly 15 billion, and the fund issuance market was hot.
But this year, the fund issuance market is bleak. I believe the major fund companies and channels have never expected. In this regard, many market participants attribute it to the recent market.
As of the closing on January 5, A-Shares ended lower than the average of the two trading days in 2022. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.23% during the year, and the gem index made a sharp correction of 4.85%, losing 3200 points. Last year's booming new energy, military industry, nonferrous metals and other popular sectors made a sharp correction. Medicine, which has been adjusted for a long time, fell sharply again because of CXO, but led by unpopular industries such as aquaculture, traditional Chinese medicine and media.
As most of the callback sectors are heavy fund positions, the data show that on January 4 alone, 30 funds fell by more than 5% in a single day, 1147 funds fell by more than 2%, and some heavy CXO pharmaceutical theme funds fell by more than 6% in a single day.
Insiders said that the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, which may be worried about the sharp switching of style at the beginning of last year. Around the Spring Festival in 2021, the market corrected sharply, especially the core assets represented by the "Mao index" fell sharply, causing heavy losses to many new funds with high positions, and even some products have not recovered their capital so far.
The data show that among the 251 funds established in January and February 2021, 94 funds still have a unit net value of less than 1 yuan, which also affects the enthusiasm of the foundation people for subscribing to the new fund this year to a certain extent.
In addition, judging from the product types of the new development fund this year, there are many products in the closed period and holding period, ranging from 60 days to one year or even three years. Some channel salespeople said that although the holding period and closed period are designed to avoid investors' frequent application for redemption, chasing up and killing down, they also sacrifice liquidity to a certain extent, and many investors are not willing to buy such products.
fund manager: a good position building period comes from the adjustment of
In the face of the current market adjustment and style switching, Du Meng, investment director of Shanghai Investment Morgan, who is about to issue a new fund, believes that a good position building period comes from the adjustment. At present, the valuation correction has been largely completed, and the beginning of the year may be a better position building opportunity. "It may not be realistic to expect these high-quality assets to return to the undervalued level before 2019." Du Meng said in an interview with a Chinese reporter of a securities firm that the valuation center of A-Shares will be improved as a whole, and the high valuation of high-quality assets will become a norm.
Du Meng also said that the market opportunities in 2022 will be relatively balanced. Last year, the opportunities of A-Shares were mainly concentrated on several major tracks. If these tracks were not successfully seized, it would be difficult to invest; This year, the market is not only new energy, but also semiconductors, consumption and medicine will have some bottom-up opportunities this year.
Coincidentally, Han Chuang, the star fund manager of Dacheng Fund, also believes that the structural differentiation market rate will converge and the style will be more balanced in 2022. He said that 2021 is a year of correction, which is not only the correction of small market value relative to large market value, but also the correction of cycle, growth and other sectors relative to consumer sectors. After one year of correction, the style separation in previous years has been converged to a great extent, and the style in 2022 will be more balanced. Except for some extremely crowded high prosperity events, there are certain opportunities in most industries in 2022.
The judgment of This relative consensus may also provide some reference for Jimin's fund selection and asset allocation in 2022. Zou Zhuoyu, research director of yingmi Fund Research Institute, suggested that when selecting funds in 2022, priority should be given to the stock selection ability of fund managers and the ability of meso industry adjustment.
Zou Zhuoyu believes that fund managers with strong stock selection ability can obtain certain excess returns under different market conditions; Industry adjustment ability can reduce portfolio volatility and pullback. Among them, the fund manager's stock selection ability can be compared by comparing the excess level of individual stocks in a single industry held by the fund manager with the corresponding industry index, and the industry adjustment ability can be comprehensively evaluated by the fund manager's historical industry adjustment frequency and success rate. In addition, investors can also build a fund portfolio, distribute some fund managers with different investment ideas and position styles, reduce the fluctuation of income and optimize the experience of holding a portfolio.
(brokerage China)
