In January, the annual report performance forecast of listed companies began to be intensively disclosed, and A-Shares ushered in the annual report performance wave. The game between actual performance and market expectation is expected to become an important factor affecting the trend of individual stocks or plates.
Market participants said that "performance growth exceeding expectations" is the core of the layout of the annual report market, but we should consider whether the high performance growth is sustainable and the matching degree between valuation and performance growth. We should not blindly pursue high performance growth stocks.
performance wave
On January 4, A-Shares ushered in the first trading day of 2022, with distinct disk characteristics: the stocks related to "Mao index" and "Ning combination" fell, the completion time of RMB trillion turnover was advanced, and the trend of pre increase of shares in annual report performance was differentiated.
In recent trading days of a shares, the market attention of annual report performance pre increase shares continued to heat up.
GEM stocks Naipu Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(300818) have increased by 63.22% in recent three trading days. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 165 million yuan to 195 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 306.17% to 380.02%.
Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) it has increased by 23.3% in recent three trading days. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about RMB 330 million to RMB 490 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 155.18% to 278.9%.
On January 4, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) increased by 4.52%. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of RMB 890 million to RMB 920 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 317.71% to 331.79%.
There are also some stocks. Although the performance forecast of the annual report increased significantly, the share price fell.
Individual stocks Luoyang Jalon Micro-Nano New Materials Co.Ltd(688357) on the science and Innovation Board fell 6.8%. On January 3, the company released a performance forecast. In 2021, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 275 million yuan to 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.91% to 127.68%.
Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) fell by 10.92%. On January 3, the company announced that it expected the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be RMB 403 million to RMB 489 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 65% to 100%.
Why does the market react differently to the performance pre increase? Market participants said that in the financial reporting season, performance is an important evaluation index to measure the quality of individual stocks, but it is not the only evaluation index. At the time point when the performance forecast is released, the gap between the actual performance and the expected performance will affect the stock price to a certain extent.
Private placement people believe that it needs to be considered from two dimensions: first, from the perspective of value evaluation, study and judge whether the high performance growth is the embodiment of the enterprise's long-term competitiveness or the result of short-term and accidental factors; Second, from the perspective of expectation difference, whether the stock price of individual stocks has fully responded to the performance growth. If the valuation of individual stocks improves very fast, or even exceeds the performance growth, it is not a good investment time point.
more than 80% of the annual report results are "pre happy"
According to the data, as of 4:00 p.m. on January 4, 2022, a total of 127 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen had issued performance forecasts for the 2021 annual report.
The performance forecast of listed companies is 46 in advance, 13 in continued profit, 4 in continued loss, 3 in the first loss, 2 in turnaround, 43 in slight increase and 13 in slight decrease, and the type of performance forecast of 3 is "uncertain".
Analyzing the above data, including pre increase, continued profit, loss reversal and slight increase, a total of 104 listed companies have "pre happy" annual performance, accounting for 81.89%.
Among the performance "pre Hi" stocks, Dongxin shares has the largest change in the predicted net profit. The company expects to achieve a net profit of about 225 million yuan to 240 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1051.89% to 1128.68%. Not long ago, the company was listed on the science and innovation board, mainly engaged in the R & D, design and sales of small and medium-sized general-purpose memory chips.
In addition, Naipu Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(300818) , Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Jiahe Meikang, Baolingbao Biology Co.Ltd(002286) , Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) and other companies have the largest change in the predicted net profit of more than 300%.
In the structural market in recent years, the sectors with heavy institutional positions generally have high performance growth.
The data show that among the above 104 performance "pre Hi" companies, according to the industry classification of the CSRC, the number of Listed Companies in the three industries of special equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing ranks the top three, including 12, 11 and 10.
"In 2021, the growth rate of all a (non-financial) performance is expected to reach 30%, mainly from the contribution of cycle and growth target." Yao Pei, a strategic analyst at Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that in the first three quarters of 2021, the growth rate of all a (non-financial) net profit attributable to the parent company reached 37.8% year-on-year. The industries that significantly contributed to the growth include upstream cycle sectors such as chemical industry (9.7%), mining (7.5%), iron and steel (4.1%), nonferrous metals (3.5%), growth sectors such as electronics (3.7%), medicine (2.4%), and transportation (6.5%) benefiting from the rise of global shipping prices. The industries that constitute a significant drag are concentrated in sectors affected by price shocks such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 4.4%), public utilities (- 1.6%), and real estate (- 2.3%).
layout closely follows the "performance benchmark"
In the future, A-Shares will intensively welcome the annual report performance forecast, 2021 annual report and the disclosure of the first quarterly report of 2022. Therefore, A-Shares will enter the performance verification period in the short term. In this context, how should investors allocate?
"In late January, the annual report performance forecast is intensively disclosed, and the areas exceeding expectations are often the key layout places; according to the annual report performance forecast, it is expected that the annual report performance forecast of resources, new energy and TMT will be well disclosed, and investors can consider the key layout in January." China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategy analyst Zhang Xia said.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, suggested that the layout should be from the perspective of "policy support + performance improvement", focusing on three main lines: first, the direction of Rural Revitalization. By analyzing the spirit of the central economic work conference, it is expected that rural revitalization will be one of the main policy lines in 2022. Rural Revitalization is the consolidation and effective connection of poverty alleviation, can effectively prevent rural residents from returning to poverty, and is a key link to achieve common prosperity. We should pay attention to agriculture and rural infrastructure.
Second, the direction of military industry. Recently, many military enterprises have restructured or injected capital, and the industry boom is good. During the "14th five year plan" period, the equipment was updated and the increment was clear, which supported the profits of industrial enterprises. The allocation proportion of institutions to the military industry continued to grow.
Third, the direction of auto parts. The automobile core shortage is alleviated, and the industry is expected to enter the stage of large capacity in 2022. Commodity prices fall, costs are reduced, and industry profits are expected to improve.
Some institutions also said that the performance forecast in January had little impact on market performance. Deng Lijun, head of the strategy group, believes that liquidity and risk appetite are the main factors affecting the market in January. It is suggested to pay attention to the expected improvement of media, securities companies and agricultural targets, new infrastructure encouraged by policies, such as green power, UHV targets, and undervalued cycle growth targets related to new energy.
general trend judgment
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : there are many opportunities in the first half of the year and relatively flat in the second half of the year
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : the index will be restrained first and then raised, and the center of gravity is expected to move up
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the market is expected to usher in an index level rise
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : "danger without danger", opportunities will outweigh risks
style performance
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : blue chip is the main investment line throughout the year
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : growth relative value style will be relatively dominant
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the overall market value style is relatively dominant throughout the year
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the Fed's interest rate hike will bring style switching, and blue chips are dominant again
liquidity outlook
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the interest rate will be reduced at least once in the first half of the year, and the MLF and LPR interest rates will be reduced
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the monetary environment will remain loose and the credit will be marginal relaxed
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : after the beginning of the year, the policy interest rate, such as MLF and reverse repo interest rate, is expected to be reduced slightly
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : there is the possibility of further RRR and even interest rate reduction, and the monetary easing cycle is not over
(China Securities Journal)
