For the A-share market in 2022, most securities companies have released forecast reports. Among them, the divergence lies in the study and judgment of the general trend of a shares. Some securities companies expect the annual trend of A-Shares to be “stable before rising”; The similarity lies in the judgment of loose liquidity. Wide credit will be an important feature in 2022, which does not rule out the possibility of reducing reserve requirements or interest rates again. Public and private institutions are expected to bring more than 2.5 trillion yuan of incremental “living water” to a shares.
general trend and style have their own opinions
For the overall trend in 2022, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that with the support of a package of stable growth policies, China’s economy is expected to recover to the potential growth level in 2022, the growth rate is expected to reach about 5.5%, and there are more opportunities in the A-share market in the first half of the year than in the second half of the year.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that A-Shares are expected to “suppress first and then rise” in 2022: the index will have a wave of pressure trend first. If the liquidity easing trend continues in 2022, after fully reflecting the downward pressure on enterprise profit growth, the rising valuation is expected to drive the A-share index to reverse.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) we are optimistic about the A-share market in 2022, and the rise of the index can be expected. The reason is that the policy side “steady growth” is already in force, and the market has entered the window period of “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit”. This environment will usually lead to the restorative rise of heavyweight sectors such as finance and real estate, which is often accompanied by the rise of the index.
From the perspective of profitability, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that although the profit growth in 2022 is dragged down by the upstream industry and may not be excellent as a whole, the regulation tends to be loose, the overall valuation is not high, the liquidity is supported, the impact of the epidemic is gradually alleviated, and the A-share market is expected to have more opportunities than risks in 2022. The median annual income of A-share equity mutual funds may be significantly higher than that in 2021.
For which market style is expected to strengthen, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) it is expected that the Fed’s interest rate increase in 2022 will bring style switching, and blue chips will dominate again. This switching process will be completed during the “spring agitation” in 2022. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) put forward the prediction of “growth outperforming value”. From the perspective of the whole year, grasping the target of growth style may be the focus of obtaining excess returns.
both interest rate and reserve requirement cuts are expected
For loose liquidity and incremental capital entering the market, the understanding of securities companies is relatively consistent.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that wide credit will be an important feature in 2022. Under the background of the increasing importance of the steady growth target, the growth rate of social finance will rise slightly to more than 11%, and the credit environment is relatively loose. In terms of monetary policy, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) is expected to use the window period of “before the Fed’s interest rate increase + low inflation pressure” to implement the task of stabilizing growth, so as to drive the total amount control to gradually broaden and continue to reduce reserve requirements.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the first half of 2022 will be the window period for interest rate reduction, and the short, medium and long-term financing interest rates will be reduced. The 7-day reverse repo interest rate, 1-year MLF interest rate, 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rate will be reduced by 5 basis points at the same time, to 2.15%, 2.90%, 3.75% and 4.60% respectively, effectively reducing the financing cost of the real economy. In addition, the recent appreciation of RMB exchange rate supported by strong export data provides a moderately loose space for China’s monetary policy regulation.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) it is estimated that the annual fund issuance is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan and the net inflow is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan in 2022; As the largest dark horse of incremental funds in 2021, private equity funds are expected to maintain a net inflow of RMB 2 trillion in 2022 and accelerate the value discovery process of “little giant” and “little dark horse”; Multiple factors will drive the continuous inflow of northward funds into a shares, with a net inflow of 336 billion yuan in 2022; The pension capacity continues to expand, and more than 200 billion yuan of incremental funds will be provided in 2022.
(China Securities Journal)
