In the past 2021, the scenery of photovoltaic track is unlimited, and the overall market value has increased by more than 1 trillion yuan. Among the more than 60 concept stocks, nearly half of the company’s share prices rose by more than 50%, of which more than 20 companies rose by more than 100%.

However, “no man is as good as a thousand days, and no flower is as red as a hundred days”. On the first trading day of 2022, photovoltaic stocks stumbled. The photovoltaic inverter index fell by more than 5% and the photovoltaic index fell by nearly 3%. Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) fell by the limit, and more than 10 shares such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) fell by more than 7%.

Fortunately, the sad atmosphere didn’t last long. More than two hours after the closing on January 4, the photovoltaic sector ushered in a “good” news: the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of transport, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the National Energy Administration issued the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025).

The action plan points out that industrial parks and new industrial demonstration bases are encouraged to build photovoltaic application projects; In urban and rural areas where conditions permit, we will comprehensively promote residential roof intelligent photovoltaic systems, encourage new government investment in public welfare buildings, and promote Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) roof systems; Accelerate the training of compound talents with professional knowledge in photovoltaic, construction, transportation, agriculture and other fields.

How will the photovoltaic sector, which has been running wildly on the bull market for nearly two years, go in the future?

the photovoltaic circuit fell sharply, and the market value of the plate evaporated 130 billion

On January 4, the first trading day of 2022, the popular track stocks in the early stage fell one after another. The photovoltaic inverter index fell by more than 5% and led the two markets. The photovoltaic roof index fell by 3.5% and the photovoltaic index fell by nearly 3%. The market value of the whole photovoltaic sector has evaporated more than 130 billion yuan.

In terms of individual stocks, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) and other nearly 20 photovoltaic stocks fell by more than 7%. Among them, Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) fell by the limit, Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , and psychic shares fell by more than 10%.

Some analysts pointed out that from the news side, there was no bad news about the photovoltaic sector that day. The track was highly prosperous last year and the participation of institutions was high. It fell sharply on the first trading day at the beginning of this year. It is likely that the institutions are changing positions and shares. However, the downstream demand of the photovoltaic industry is still strong, and the valuation of some leading stocks in 2022 is not too high. If you continue to participate in this sector, you need to carefully select individual stocks.

Statistics show that in 2021, the PV inverter index increased by 92%, the PV roof index increased by 64%, and the PV index also increased by 62%. Among the more than 60 photovoltaic concept stocks, nearly half of the companies increased by more than 50%. Among them, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) and other 20 shares increased by more than 100%.

industry welcomes heavy documents

it is noteworthy that after the closing on January 4, the photovoltaic sector ushered in a “good” news.

At about 17:40 PM that day, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of transport, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the National Energy Administration issued the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025).

By 2025, the intelligent level of photovoltaic industry will be significantly improved and breakthroughs in industrial technological innovation will be made. The mass production conversion efficiency of the new high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery has been significantly improved, forming a complete supporting capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, equipment, materials and devices. The construction of intelligent photovoltaic industry ecosystem has been basically completed, and the integration level with the new generation of information technology has been gradually deepened. Significant progress has been made in intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, and the supply capacity of intelligent photovoltaic products has been enhanced.

The above action plan clearly points out that the photovoltaic industry is a sunrise industry with integrated development and rapid rise based on semiconductor technology and new energy demand. It is also a major key field to achieve manufacturing power and energy revolution. The action plan also deploys the application of intelligent photovoltaic in eight fields: industry, transportation, construction, agriculture, countryside, power station, communication and innovative applications.

These include: encouraging the construction of photovoltaic application projects such as industrial parks and new industrial demonstration bases; Accelerate the promotion and application of “photovoltaic + transportation” and other integrated development projects, and promote the demonstration construction of photovoltaic power stations and charging piles in the transportation field; In urban and rural areas where conditions permit, we will comprehensively promote residential roof intelligent photovoltaic systems, encourage new government investment in public welfare buildings, and promote Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) roof systems; Accelerate the development of green and low-carbon cycle in agriculture, and promote the installation of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components for power generation on the roof of agricultural facilities in conditional areas.

In addition, the action plan also mentioned to support the construction of pilot demonstration projects such as intelligent photovoltaic hydrogen production, and accelerate the research on the coupling technology between hydrogen production system and photovoltaic. Develop long-life and high safety BIPV photovoltaic components and photovoltaic tiles to support building roof photovoltaic action. Actively carry out the building construction demonstration of “light storage, direct and flexible” integrating photovoltaic power generation, energy storage, DC distribution and flexible power consumption.

In fact, since last year, government departments have intensively issued a number of policies to support photovoltaic power generation. On June 20, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on submitting the pilot scheme for roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district), so as to integrate resources, realize intensive development and accelerate the development of roof distributed photovoltaic. On October 24, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization were issued to implement the action of renewable energy substitution and vigorously develop wind energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , biomass energy, marine energy and geothermal energy.

In addition, according to the statistics of soby photovoltaic network, in November last year alone, 83 photovoltaic policies were issued successively, involving 24 provinces, cities and regions, including photovoltaic projects, distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic subsidies, double carbon goals, “14th five year plan” power market, the whole county and other relevant policies.

organization: downstream demand of photovoltaic industry in the first quarter or “not light in the off-season”

From the perspective of many institutions, in the first quarter of this year, the downstream demand of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to show a scene of “not light in the off-season”. However, some research institutions believe that the valuation of the short-term photovoltaic sector is at a historically high position, and there is a possibility of continued decline. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and improving the layout of beneficiary areas of photovoltaic installation demand.

Lin rongyun, an analyst at Huafu securities, believes that the silicon material price has fallen for four consecutive weeks, close to the critical value of 230000 yuan / ton, corresponding to the components of 1.8 yuan / W, and the relationship between supply and demand has been greatly improved. The market expects that the missing demand in the fourth quarter will be greatly released in the first quarter of this year, forming a prosperous situation in the off-season. At the same time, the leading PV sector corresponds to only 30 times of the valuation in 2022. Both from the perspective of supply and demand and valuation, after half a year of shock, it is now in a reasonable range, and the logical inflection point has emerged.

Huang Xiuyu, an analyst at Dongguan securities, said that polysilicon prices continued to decline in the past week. At present, the overall operating rate of the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually picking up. It is expected that the downstream demand is expected to show “not light in the off-season” in the first quarter of 2022. Deng Yongkang, an analyst at Minsheng securities, also pointed out that the photovoltaic sector is expected to further promote the price downward after about a month of supply chain price adjustment + silicon inventory during the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to see the rapid rise of installed demand and drive the arrival of high-profile Fundamentals.

Tang junnan, an analyst at Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , pointed out that the price reduction of the photovoltaic industry chain has gradually played a role in stimulating downstream demand, and the production of components and batteries has improved month on month. Considering the new supply of silicon head enterprises and the expansion of production in all links of the industrial chain, it is expected that the price of photovoltaic industrial chain still has room for decline. The short-term sector valuation is at a historically high position, and the deposit may continue to fall. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and improving the layout of beneficiary areas based on the improvement of photovoltaic installation demand.

analysis and interpretation

How to develop intelligent photovoltaic? Five ministries and commissions have issued a five-year action plan, BIPV, optical storage, direct and flexible, or focus

(brokerage China)