even if relevant enterprises frequently expand production this year, the price of polysilicon still rises for 9 consecutive weeks
On March 16, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) announced that Xinte energy, the holding subsidiary of the company, with its wholly-owned subsidiary Xinte silicon-based new materials company as the main body, invested and constructed a 200000 ton polysilicon project in Xinjiang Changji Zhundong Industrial Park, with a total investment of about 17.6 billion yuan.
Affected by this news, as of the closing of the day, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) reported 20.85 yuan / share, up 5.41%, with a total market value of 78.99 billion yuan.
polysilicon expansion tide
Xinte energy is about to return to a. Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) on the same day, it announced that the company’s fourth interim Board of directors in 2022 considered and approved the plan of Xinte energy’s initial public offering of A-Shares and listing, but it still needs to be submitted to the company’s second extraordinary general meeting in 2022 for deliberation and approval item by item, and implemented after being approved by the CSRC. Xinte energy was founded in 2008 and landed in H shares in 2015. It is mainly engaged in the production and sales of silicon and related high-purity materials and the research and development of related technologies.
The total investment of the above projects is about 17.6 billion yuan, including 8.8 billion yuan of capital, which is solved through the initial public offering of A-Shares of Xinte energy, and the raised funds are invested in Xinte silicon materials company in the form of capital increase; The rest will be settled by bank loans. If the actual amount of funds raised by Xinte energy in issuing A-Shares is less than the capital demand of the project, Xinte energy will solve it through self financing.
Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) said that the project has good economic benefits, and the profitability of the company will be further enhanced after the project is completed. The implementation of the project will help Xinte energy to continue to maintain its competitive advantage in the polysilicon industry and further enhance the company’s comprehensive strength.
Coincidentally, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) also threw out a large order for polysilicon investment a few days ago. According to the announcement on March 15, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) signed the strategic cooperation and investment agreement with Taiyuan municipal government and Gujiao municipal government. The company plans to invest in the project with an annual output of 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity polysilicon in Gujiao City, Shanxi Province, with a total investment of 14 billion yuan.
It is reported that the total construction period of the project is about 5 years, which is divided into two phases. The first phase is invested in the project with an annual output of 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 10000 tons of high-purity polysilicon; The second phase of the polysilicon project with an annual output of 90000 tons. Phase I is planned to start construction after the agreement comes into force, and strive to be completed and put into operation in 2024; Phase II project will be promoted according to market conditions.
price rebounded strongly
In 2022, the expansion of silicon end production will continue.
On February 25, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) announced that it plans to invest in the construction of 150000 tons of high-purity industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon projects with a total investment of 11.8 billion yuan; On February 15, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) said that its wholly-owned subsidiary planned to invest in a 200000 ton high-purity polysilicon project with an estimated total investment of 17.5 billion yuan; On January 25, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) threw out its first fixed increase plan since listing, and planned to raise no more than 11 billion yuan, of which 8.003 billion yuan was used for the project with an annual output of 100000 tons of high-purity silicon-based materials, and 2.997 billion yuan was used to supplement working capital.
Behind the big expansion is the strong rebound of silicon material price. According to the data of silicon branch on March 16, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding this week is from 242000 yuan / ton to 251000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is 247800 yuan / ton; The price range of single crystal compact is 240000 yuan / ton to 249000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is 245300 yuan / ton. This is the ninth week of continuous rise in silicon material prices since the rebound on January 12.
In 2021, the price of polysilicon basically rose throughout the year, from 88000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to above 180000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a maximum of more than 270000 yuan / ton and a maximum increase of more than 206%.
The silicon branch said that as of last week, all the long orders of silicon material enterprises in March had been signed, and even some enterprises had begun to sign orders in April. The polysilicon transaction this week was relatively light, and only 2-3 silicon material enterprises signed a small number of loose orders. The transaction price of loose orders was basically at the high level of the previous week, so the average price of silicon material continued to rise slightly this week. This week, the price still maintained a slight rise, which was consistent with the expectation, mainly due to the superposition of factors such as the lower than expected supply increment of silicon materials in China in March, the high operating rate of existing silicon wafer enterprises, and the rapid release progress of silicon wafer production expansion increment, resulting in the phased shortage of silicon materials in the whole March. Therefore, under the condition of relatively clear market supply and demand, The price of retail orders in the middle of the month basically continues the price rise of long orders at the beginning of the month.
performance “big gift bag”
In the long run, the capacity increment of polysilicon expansion is significantly greater than the demand increment.
According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, up to now, 16 new enterprises have announced the new and proposed polysilicon projects (there are currently 13 enterprises in production), with a total planned capacity of more than 1.7 million tons / year. If the capacity expansion of existing enterprises in production is included, the total increment will reach 3.5 million tons / year. In 2025, the terminal demand is optimistic, with an estimated 400gw and the demand for silicon material of about 1.5 million tons, Compared with 2021, the demand increase is about 900000 tons.
Industry insiders believe that polysilicon has small elasticity coefficient of production capacity and high requirements for safety and environmental protection management. Once the supply exceeds the demand, it is prone to the extreme situation of inverted cost price for a long time, and then enter the vicious cycle of insufficient capital investment and serious mismatch between supply and demand in the industry again, aggravating the disorderly competition in the market. Therefore, it is suggested that all investment enterprises conduct a comprehensive investigation, We should not only pursue immediate interests, but also long-term development. We need to be more cautious in the face of opportunities.
The price rise of polysilicon has greatly benefited upstream enterprises Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) it is expected to realize a net profit of about 3.3 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 650%. The main reason is that the photovoltaic industry has maintained a high degree of development, and the production and sales of the company’s main products are booming.
Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) disclosed the annual report of 2021, which shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.832 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 132.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 448.56%. It is mainly due to the shortage of silicon market supply and the sharp rise of silicon price and gross profit of the company during the reporting period. In addition, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) it is estimated that the polysilicon sales volume in the first quarter of 2022 will be 37000 tons to 38000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 72.33% to 76.98%.
Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 6.8 billion yuan to 7.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 173.44% to 193.54%. The sales volume of polysilicon products in the reporting period of the company increased compared with the same period in 2020 and the price of polysilicon products increased significantly year-on-year. At the same time, the scale and power generation of the company’s wind power and photovoltaic self operated power stations increased, and the net profit of the company’s holding subsidiary Xinte energy in the reporting period increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year.
