Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) : in the next 3-5 years, China’s Prefabricated vegetable industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market
Lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of prefabricated vegetable industry. Chinese households are increasingly dependent on industrialized food production and socialized food supply. Prefabricated dishes simplify the tedious steps of buying, washing, cutting and cooking, integrate quality, nutrition and taste, and cater to the lifestyle of young consumer groups under the fast-paced life. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China’s Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market.
At present, local epidemics occur occasionally in China, and the frequency of family meals increases. Prefabricated vegetable bags have gradually become a necessity for isolated life at home. Chinese food industrialization and standardized production demand drive the expansion of b-end market of prefabricated dishes. Prefabricated dishes replace the processing of food materials and cooking of dishes in the back kitchen. The standardized production process can ensure the stable taste of dishes. While reducing costs, food enterprises can avoid cumbersome food material processing process, improve restaurant floor efficiency and improve the overall profitability. The increase of takeout penetration rate and the change of family structure promote the increase of C-end sales of prefabricated dishes.
The explosive growth of takeout not only introduces a steady stream of passenger flow and orders into the catering industry, but also improves the convenience requirements. The decline of young people’s enthusiasm for studying cooking and the rise of women’s enrollment rate and employment rate have greatly reduced the time spent by households in the kitchen compared with the previous decade. Prefabricated dishes that can ensure the taste of dishes have become the first choice for family cooking. Suggestions: 1) specialized manufacturer of prefabricated vegetables: Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; 2) Involved in semi-finished food and beverage enterprises: Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ; 3) Enterprises with food manufacturing business: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Longda food. []
open source Securities: the demand of the prefabricated vegetable industry is gradually released it is recommended to pay attention to the relevant subject matter
The prefabricated vegetable industry is in the stage of accelerated development and has broad development space. (1) B end: Prefabricated dishes can effectively reduce the cost of rent, raw materials and labor of catering enterprises, ensure the consistency of chain catering products, and have high operation efficiency; (2) C-end: Prefabricated dishes have high cost performance and good taste, which can effectively reduce the cooking burden of consumers and improve the quality of life. At present, the industry has obvious regional characteristics, the competition pattern is scattered, and it is still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure. In the future, with the gradual release of b-end and C-end demand, the industry has broad development space and a trillion market can be expected.
The demand of the prefabricated vegetable industry is gradually released and is in a period of rapid development. Old prefabricated vegetable enterprises Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) and haodeli have been deeply engaged in the prefabricated vegetable industry for many years, and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) and other enterprises in the food industry have arranged the prefabricated vegetable industry one after another. Relevant enterprises can be the first to layout the market and enjoy the dividends of the rapid development of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) . In addition, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) will also benefit. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the development of prefabricated vegetable industry is in full swing! Tap a number of subdivision leaders with stable basic disk, clear development logic and high recognition
From the perspective of catering industry chain, the development of prefabricated dishes can be expected, and the leading performance of subdivided tracks is excellent. Benefiting from the chain development of food enterprises, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the cultivation of family consumption scenes by the epidemic, the prefabricated vegetable industry is developing in full swing; Among them, a series of high-quality sub tracks with broad prospects are coming to the fore, including the frozen baking track with low penetration, strong substitution and large development space, the fast-frozen hot pot material market in a steady growth period, and the b-end channel of prefabricated rice noodles with high standardization, “low cost performance” and large substitution space.
After careful selection, we found a number of subdivision leaders with stable basic plate, clear development logic and high recognition. It is suggested to pay attention to quick-frozen food leader Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , frozen baking leader Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , b-end service focused Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) and prefabricated dishes East China leader Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) . At the same time, Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) continues to be recommended, mainly because Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) is the leader in China’s vegetable fat powder industry, and the diversified expansion of coffee, plant-based drinks and other businesses. Taking advantage of existing customers and channels, the coffee business is expected to grow into the second growth curve.
In terms of dairy products, we expect that the price of raw milk may usher in a downward inflection point in 2022, but there is still uncertainty about whether the profit elasticity of dairy enterprises will appear this year. At present, the infant formula industry is in stock competition. With the enhancement of Z generation’s preference for domestic products and the acceleration of market clearing under the strong supervision of the milk powder industry, China’s infant formula market will enter a high-quality development stage in the future. []
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : the worst time point has passed! The popular products sector mainly focuses on three main lines
Looking forward to 2022, although the epidemic situation is still uncertain and the overall opportunities of the sector still need to wait for the real recovery of demand, the worst time point has passed, and sub sectors and individual stock opportunities can be screened from bottom to top. We suggest that the popular products sector mainly focuses on three main lines: 1) leading companies with reasonable valuation and pricing power. It is expected that the transmission of price increase will be smooth, and the performance is expected to usher in an inflection point in 2022, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) . 2) The company expects to maintain high growth in the sub industry with large space and low penetration rate. For example, yeast industry chain leader Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , low alcohol beverage industry Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , energy beverage industry Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) , freeze baking industry Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , etc. 3) The high-end trend is determined, and the profitability of the industry is expected to improve. For example, beer and dairy industries, it is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the growth trend of baking, prefabricated vegetables and other industries is expected to accelerate
Looking forward to 2022, the price will rise in a cycle, and the performance is expected to accelerate the release. With the normalization of the epidemic and the development of home consumption scenarios, the marginal impact of the epidemic on food and beverage production and sales will be smaller and smaller. Since the third quarter of 2021, the price of food and beverage has been rising. In 2022, the price and inventory of food and beverage are expected to enter a double upward cycle, and actively pay attention to the release of profits. In terms of rhythm, we expect that the price increase in 2022q1 will gradually complete the transmission to the terminal. Under the low base of 2022q2, food and beverage profits are expected to increase significantly. In 2022q3-q4, the price increase profit elasticity will continue to release as the cost increase decreases or even falls.
Two year epidemic stress test, value regression. The epidemic has limited impact, such as the total volume of Baijiu is limited, the price of beer has accelerated, and the speed of yeast and quick-frozen has increased rapidly. The epidemic situation mostly interferes with the mentality and value chain. With the repair of catering, the industry is expected to return to the right track in an all-round way; The logic of industry growth is expected to continue the logic of 2015-2019. The industry has experienced a price war, and the rest is the king. We should pay enough attention to the dragon one dragon two with more adjustments. At present, the price cycle has been started, the inventory increase cycle is expected to come, and the performance is expected to accelerate the release. If the epidemic situation is controlled properly and the macro performance is good, it is expected to obtain excess returns.
Referring to the above research and judgment, our main recommendation focuses on the following directions: first, the strong is a stable income company. Considering that under the background of the normalization of the epidemic, the total growth of the short-term demand side may be suppressed, we should pay more attention to the average price increase and profit release brought by the medium and long-term consumption upgrading, and the leading companies in the industry have strong system competitiveness and stable operation. We mainly recommend Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , China Resources beer, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Leading sub industries such as Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) .
Second, high growth companies with rapid expansion of the industry. We believe that the growth trend of baked and prefabricated vegetables is expected to accelerate. Considering the weakness of demand side in the repeated outbreak, and the company’s high growth track and competitive strength, the new products (or new businesses) of the company are prone to generate excess returns. We recommend the prefabricated vegetables, frozen industries, sub high end Baijiu, cheese industry, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , and so on. Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) etc.
Third, companies with cycle reversal and dilemma reversal. We believe that, on the one hand, the epidemic and other factors affect the company’s production, sales and value chain. With the control of the epidemic and the enhancement of consumer confidence, the company has great flexibility, such as Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Haidilao, leading oil enterprises and meat products. We suggest paying attention to Yihai international. On the other hand, the development speed of the company has been relatively slow for various reasons, and it is still expected to accelerate after the recent adjustment, such as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) . It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Zhou Heiya. []
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : pay attention to price increase transmission and channel reform! Optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value of leisure food
In terms of leisure food, suggestions: 1) pay attention to the individual stocks with marginal improvement due to reform (implementation of price increase policy, positive expansion of distribution channels, etc.), such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Three Squirrels Inc(300783) ; In addition, with the deepening of reform in the industry and the continuous expansion of channels, we suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities catalyzed by events brought by the phased achievements of reform, such as the signing of key customer agreements, large-scale new channels, etc. 2) At the same time Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) under the pressure of the industry in 2021, it shows good business robustness (for example, the omni channel layout mode hedges the negative impact brought by channel fragmentation and channel flow change, and the omni category layout mode suppresses the negative impact brought by the life cycle of leisure food under the background of diversified demand). It is optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value, and it is recommended to pay continuous attention.
In terms of quick-frozen food, the demand recovery at the catering end has been disturbed by the epidemic, and the industry competition has intensified. The effect of price increase transmission and landing remains to be observed. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) promoting channel reform and building new bases to expand production capacity. In the medium term, it is recommended to close Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) destined to increase national production capacity and provide new momentum for prefabricated dishes, as well as Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) benefiting from the improvement of catering chain rate.
In terms of brine products, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) . Recently, the channel feedback stores updated the menu and raised the price of some products. The price increase products are mainly popular core products such as duck neck and duck clavicle, with a price increase of 5-10%; The price of vegetables and beef increased by 10% – 15%; The price of some duck viscera will not rise for the time being. Whether the whole product price will be increased in the future depends on the recovery of terminal sales and catering. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya, who is in the process of franchise and supply chain optimization.
In terms of baking and tea raw materials, the price of oil and other raw materials is still at a high level, but the strong demand in the downstream determines that expanding production capacity and seizing market share is the main line of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) and the supplier of tea fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) .
In terms of condiments, it is recommended to pay attention to the individual stocks that have a smooth implementation of price increase due to industry pattern and product characteristics and have little impact on sales, as well as the individual stocks that are more likely to fall in subsequent costs, have large profit elasticity after cost fall and are expected to retain the price increase effect, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) . []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : it is recommended to grasp the catalysis of marginal improvement of fundamentals on performance elasticity in condiments and leisure snacks
The main investment thread of 2022 in food and beverage industry: 1) the main line of “certainty + high barriers”: Baijiu River, which recommends deep moat, good business mode and high valuation and high price. During the year, equity incentives of several liquor enterprises were implemented more than expected, injecting new vitality under the new pattern of empowerment. Looking forward to 2022, we think we can still grasp the two main lines of certainty + growth. For high-end liquor, the performance is highly deterministic, the valuation has been digested to a reasonable level, and the certainty of obtaining the deterministic premium is strong, which is still the first; For the secondary high-end with strong growth, the performance is also expected to be flexible, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
2) The main line of “performance recovery + price increase and landing”: the mass goods sector with improved fundamentals and prosperity recovery. We believe that, on the one hand, the impact of the epidemic in 2022 will weaken marginally, and the demand is expected to improve gradually; On the other hand, the pressure on the cost side will also slow down, and the price increase will be gradually transmitted to the profit side. For the beer sector, it is recommended to pay attention to whether there are valuation opportunities brought by higher-end progress than expected and clear high-end competition pattern. For the dairy sector, we believe that the profit side is still flexible in 2022. The condiments and leisure snacks sector suggests grasping the catalysis of fundamental marginal improvement on performance elasticity.
Guokai Securities: the sub sector of food and beverage industry is expected to usher in a new era! Look for layout opportunities around two main lines
The worst time point has passed. Pay attention to consumption upgrading and price transmission. We believe that the worst time point for food and beverage companies has passed, and the industry fundamentals will be improved in 2022. Superimposed on the current overall valuation level of the sector, some sub sectors with good fundamentals recovery are expected to usher in a new era. It is suggested to look for layout opportunities around the following two main lines: 1. Continue to focus on the main theme of consumption upgrading and look for targets to attack the middle and high-end; 2. Pay attention to price transmission and advance layout will usher in the subject of reversal. According to the current industry boom, we suggest that we focus on the two sub sectors of Baijiu and beer and actively follow the fundamentals of dairy products, condiments and frozen foods.
Baijiu, we think that upgrading of structure and concentration is still the main driving force for the development of the industry. The stronger structural boom of the stronger will continue, and the reform will continue to deepen in all directions. We believe that the comprehensive strength of famous liquor enterprises will continue to grow. Baijiu Baijiu, Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , which have high elasticity of performance, are the main products of the reform. They are the second highest quality liquor Baijiu and alcoholic spirits with the elasticity of performance. They hope to release the regional liquor of low base number, gujinggong and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
In terms of beer, the industry has entered the era of Oligarchic Competition, the upgrading of product structure has entered the acceleration period, and the sales volume of high-end single products has increased rapidly against the trend under the epidemic situation. Superimposed with the off-season price increases at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 and the year-on-year decline in the price of raw materials expected in the second half of 2022, we expect the performance of leading companies to be accelerated next year. It is suggested to pay attention to the local beer leading company Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) with high-end gene and clear strategy. []
