Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, the leading economic indicators continued to rise, indicating a continuous economic recovery. The last week of last year's collective rush to raise funds from the north, the recovery of market sentiment and the start of the monetary easing cycle, the spring market is still worth looking forward to. At the beginning of the new year, high-end stocks fell continuously, undervalued varieties were favored by funds, and the transformation of market style has been started. It is recommended to pay attention to it.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low. After the opening, they fluctuated lower. Although there was a rebound in the session, they fell again in the afternoon, and the overall performance was weak. In late trading, the index rebounded slightly, but it was difficult to change the low situation of the whole line on the same day. On the same day, the turnover of the two cities exceeded trillion again, but under the decline of more than 3000 shares, the overall profit-making effect was weak. On the disk, banking stocks led the gains, with household appliances, petroleum and petrochemical, real estate and media sectors leading the gains, while national defense and military industry fell sharply, while power equipment, electronics, utilities and automobiles fell.
In the first two trading days of 2022, the market mainly fell continuously, which made investors feel a little cool. However, paying close attention to the market, the decline in the past two days is mainly due to the high level and the decline of overvalued varieties, especially the decline of Hang Seng technology and the collective decline of track stocks such as new energy. This decline did not begin today. Since December last year, this pattern has begun to appear frequently; At the same time, undervalued varieties continue to be favored by funds. In the fourth quarter of last year, the infrastructure and securities sectors changed, and it was under the leadership of blue chip heavyweights that the index once returned to the integer level of 3700 points. Since the beginning of the year, blue chips led by banks have continued to perform, crushing growth stocks as a whole.
Therefore, the decline of high-level stocks and the recovery of low-level blue chips in the second half of the fourth quarter of last year indicate that the market style is continuously changing, that is, high-level and overvalued varieties continue to fall, while the bottom of the undervalued plate gradually rises. On the premise that value stocks fell last year, there is a momentum of return this year. The transformation of this style has a lot to do with the current policy shift. Especially after the central bank's RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the monetary easing cycle has kicked off, and the valuation of blue chips and the expectation of make-up rise have gradually increased, which may also lead to the position adjustment and stock exchange of funds.
As for the market, the current valuation of all A-Shares is not high, and under the stable fundamentals, the expectation of loose liquidity is also increasing, and the overall good trend of the market has not changed. Periodic adjustment is still a good time for bargain hunting to configure the spring market. There is no need to worry too much about the continuous correction in the beginning of the year. Under the support of the steady growth policy, the overall falling space of the market is limited.
Overall: in the short term, the market ushered in consolidation, but there was no substantive bad. Under the support and boost of many parties, consolidation is a good time to bargain hunting, and investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the "steady growth" or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as big finance and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, continuously adjusted technologies and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
