Today (January 5), the three major indexes continued to fall. As of the close, 3400 stocks were green, of which the gem index fell more than 2% for two consecutive days. As the two trading days at the beginning of 2022, the overall performance of A-Shares was poor. The hot track plates such as green power, lithium battery and semiconductor fell sharply one after another, and only the theme plates such as games, Winter Olympics and virtual digital man maintained the rise.
Note: list of concept and sector declines (closing on January 5)
The collective decline of popular track stocks failed to make a successful start in the A-share market. Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that there are three main reasons for today’s market decline. first, China Mobile went public today . After the full exercise of “green shoes”, the fund-raising amount exceeded 55 billion yuan, a new high in IPO fund-raising in recent ten years. The huge amount of IPO has a great disturbance on the capital side and a blood pumping effect; Second, recently, US bond yields have risen significantly , with an upward range of nearly 14bp in the past two days, approaching the high since last year. The rapid rise of US bond interest rates has suppressed some overvalued sectors, mainly focusing on growth style; Third, the latest interest rate meeting minutes and non farm employment report will be released this week. Investors are worried about the Fed’s further tightening of liquidity.
For the market in January, many institutions believe that there is no worry about liquidity and stable policy, and the market is expected to remain optimistic. Wanlian Securities pointed out that the profit expectation of all A-Shares continues to fall, but the liquidity is worry free, the policy is stable, the market sentiment is expected to improve marginally, and the A-Shares may continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) also believes that it is optimistic about the market in January, and the three factors of economy, liquidity and policy resonate and actively go long. Among them, valuation expansion dominated by loose liquidity and stable growth policy is the main driving force of restlessness in spring, and the growth style is expected to become the main line of the market after phased adjustment .
Spring agitation refers to the periodic rising market from January to March, which has a great impact on the annual income. For this round of market this year, some institutions pointed out the need to pay attention to the market fluctuations in January. Cinda Securities believes that if the Q1 index fluctuates very violently (the index amplitude exceeds 15%), January will generally be the starting point of this fluctuation. From January, we need to focus on verifying the activity of residents’ funds and the improvement of credit brought by stable growth. If both factors are optimistic, the cross-year market can last until March. Otherwise, January may be the end of this wave of cross-year market.
Recently, a number of securities companies released the Strategy Research Report for January. From the perspective of configuration suggestions, the growth direction of new energy industry chains such as green power, scenery and hydrogen storage is still optimistic. The military industry sector with strong performance certainty in the first half of the year and consumer sectors such as food and beverage and consumer electronics are also the main stream. In addition, building materials, real estate, household appliances Marginal improvement sectors such as light industry are also expected to usher in valuation repair.
Note: the outlook and configuration suggestions for the market in January in the recent research report of securities companies
green power: focus on valuation, installed capacity and performance growth
Green power is the star track in 2021, and individual stocks in the sector also rose sharply. However, towards the end of the year, the sector as a whole began to adjust sharply, and continued to fall sharply in the first two trading days of this year. As of today’s (January 5) closing, the sector index has fallen by more than 3% in the past two days (this year). In terms of individual stocks, Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) , Guangdong electric power, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) has fallen by more than 10% in the past two days, and more than 80% of the stocks are green.
Although green power stocks have performed poorly recently, institutions are still generally optimistic. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that on the supply side, wind power and photovoltaic parity projects are increasing, and other types of tradable projects are expected to increase, and projects with subsidies will also be included in the transaction scope when the waiting mechanism is perfect and the time is ripe, which is expected to further boost the supply of green power. On the demand side, the company has the needs of transformation and upgrading and improving the international competitiveness of products, and the demand for green power is expected to increase. In addition, the market transaction frequency is expected to rise further in the future. Therefore, the transaction scale of green power market is expected to continue to grow in the future.
In terms of core benefit targets, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) puts forward the stock selection model of “two high and one low”, and recommends the order of target selection: 1) the target with high expected growth rate of installed capacity, high performance growth rate and reasonable or low valuation is preferred, that is, “two high and one low” ; 2) Secondly, select the target with high expected growth rate of installed capacity, low performance growth rate and reasonable or low valuation, namely “one high and two low”; 3) Select the target with low expected growth rate of installed capacity, high performance growth rate, reasonable or low valuation, namely “one high and two low”.
military industry track: missile, informatization, air launch, military aircraft
The military track performed well last year, and the sector index rose nearly 30% throughout the year. The high outlook of the military sector comes from the continuous improvement of the demand side and the accelerated release of production capacity at the supply side. At the same time, its outlook also spread from part to the whole industrial chain. East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that key companies in the military industry had excellent financial performance in q1-q3 in 2021, and the market’s view of “accelerated assembly of military equipment and upward inflection point of sector performance and sustained high-speed release” since the end of the 13th five year plan continued to be fully verified, which means that military sector is expected to continue to receive financial attention and market funds are active, Individual stocks should be excavated from top to bottom and from bottom to top .
In terms of specific track segments, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that it is optimistic about missile, informatization, aviation development and military aircraft sub industries : there is a large gap between China’s national defense equipment and the world advanced level, especially aviation equipment. The gap in the number of major military aircraft corresponds to a compound growth rate of about 20% in the 14th five year plan. Missiles and aircraft launch have the attribute of consumables and informatization. They benefit from the development trend of intelligent and systematic operations, and the growth rate is expected to be higher on the basis of military aircraft growth.
(Financial Associated Press)
