The dispute between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the global soybean market. On March 13, the Argentine government announced the suspension of soybean meal export license, and the price of soybean meal reached a new high in recent ten years due to the superposition of multiple factors. Due to the rise in the price of raw materials, a number of feed enterprises recently sent another price increase letter. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from multiple interviews that soybean meal still has the momentum to rise. Before April, China's supply is still tight, and the price will remain high. Under the background of the continuous rise of raw materials, there is still room for feed prices to rise.
It is reported that Argentina is the world's number one exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil, with an annual output of 40 to 45 million tons of soybeans, of which 35 million tons are used to process into soybean meal and soybean oil. Argentina has registered the export of about 5 million tons of soybean oil and other manufactured products in 2021 / 22.
Zhu Rongping, soybean meal analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, explained to the financial associated press that the suspension of export license means that the global soybean supply will be more tense, which will exacerbate the unrest in the soybean market. After Argentina's supply interruption, the Chinese market can only turn to the United States and Brazil to find alternative supply and increase the demand for soybeans in the United States, keeping the cost of soybeans high.
China's soybean meal market mainly follows the export of American beans. Zhu Rongping further said that with the situation between Russia and Ukraine stuck, the current market focus is on the harvesting and discount of Brazilian soybeans and the planting intention of American beans at the end of the month. At present, the harvest of new beans in Argentina will not start until a few weeks later, so the export of soybean meal and soybean oil in the new season has not actually started. Therefore, the short-term impact is relatively limited, mainly following the high shock of meidou in the external market Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ( Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) . SZ) insiders told the associated press that Argentina's suspension of soybean meal export has little impact on the company at present.
The continuous high level of raw materials once again gave birth to the rise in feed prices. According to the rough statistics of the financial Associated Press, the types of feed with price increases mostly involve livestock and poultry materials, and the price increases range from 50-300 yuan / ton. Among them, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) . SZ) announced that since March 14, the price of Pig concentrate products has increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the price of pig education trough material conservation products has increased by 200 yuan / ton; Zhonghui agriculture and animal husbandry Co., Ltd. has increased the price of concentrated feed by 200 yuan / ton and the full price of large pig feed by 50 yuan / ton since 7 p.m. on March 13; Neijiang Zhengda Co., Ltd. announced that the price of all pig agricultural materials increased by 250 yuan / ton, and the price of chicken and meat duck materials increased by 50 yuan / ton.
The person in charge of a feed factory in Shandong told the financial Associated Press: "the price of raw materials has been rising. Feed enterprises are now very difficult, and the price adjustment is really forced. Seeing the price of soybean meal rising all the way, today the price of soybean meal in Shandong has been close to 5000 yuan / ton. Now the breeding loss is serious, many retail farmers have abandoned their breeding or gone out to work, and the sales of feed are also declining."
For the short-term price trend of soybean meal, Zhu Rongping believes that soybean meal still has the momentum to rise, because at present, many contracts of soybean meal futures still have a large discount compared with the spot price. In terms of spot price of soybean meal, as the spot price of soybean meal in some regions of China successively exceeded the 4000 yuan / ton mark, the spot price of soybean meal has entered the high price area. At present, the rise of soybean meal price is more from the transmission of the supply side. Before April, China's supply is still tight, and the price will remain high in the short term. The person in charge of the above feed factory said that when the raw materials continue to rise, there is still room for feed prices to rise. From this evening, the company has raised the prices of whole livestock and poultry materials and concentrated materials, piglet teaching trough and conservation materials.
It is worth mentioning that with the continuous rise of soybean meal price, the application enthusiasm of low protein diet in large-scale breeding enterprises has increased Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ( Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . SZ) insiders told the associated press that in the fourth quarter of last year, the use of feed formula soybean meal in the company's pig business accounted for less than 5%, and protein raw materials were replaced by miscellaneous meal. At present, the company's raw material procurement business is normal, and the rise of feed price is a problem that the whole breeding industry needs to face. The production cost of pig feed increased by about 5% year-on-year from January to February 2022.
