On March 16, the house price data of 70 cities nationwide were released.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in February, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the growth of second-hand house prices in the first tier cities expanded month on month, led by the rise of second-hand house prices in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, while the second-hand house prices in the second and third tier cities still fell month on month. In addition, the increase of new house prices in 70 cities fell month on month, among which the increase of new house prices in Xi'an was the largest in China.
Industry insiders believe that the new housing market and second-hand housing market in first tier cities have begun to hit the bottom and recover. However, from the negative medium and long-term loans of new residents in February, the demand side confidence has not been fully restored. It is very important to continue to accurately guide the release of reasonable housing demand in the follow-up. The further transmission and effectiveness of supportive policies will support the repair of the market. It is expected that the effect of various rescue policies will begin to show around April, when house prices will also hit the bottom and pick up.
first tier cities take the lead in stabilizing
According to the data, in February, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the prices of new houses and second-hand houses in the first tier cities increased month on month, while those in the second and third tier cities remained unchanged or decreased month on month.
New home prices in first tier cities rose 0.5% month on month, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Second hand housing in first tier cities increased by 0.5% month on month, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, of which Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou increased by 0.7%, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2%.
In terms of the month on month increase in the price of new houses in 70 cities across the country, Beijing and Guangzhou are tied for third, Shanghai is tied for fourth and Shenzhen is tied for fifth; From the perspective of the month on month increase of second-hand housing prices in 70 cities across the country, Shanghai led the country, Beijing ranked second and Guangzhou tied for third.
"In February, the price of first tier cities was repaired more than that of second and third tier cities." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, said that in February, the month on month increase of second-hand housing price indexes in Beijing and Shanghai expanded, the decline stopped in Guangzhou and turned to rise, and the decline narrowed in Shenzhen; Second and third tier cities second-hand housing prices are still down month on month. The average month on month decline of new house prices in 70 cities was slightly larger than that in January, which was mainly affected by the relatively insufficient repair efforts of second and third tier cities.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, also believes that the new housing market and second-hand housing market in first tier cities have begun to hit the bottom and pick up.
For the reasons why the first tier cities took the lead in stabilizing, Li Yujia believes that the first tier cities just need a solid foundation and are sensitive to policies. When the credit line increases and the interest rate decreases, the demand will accelerate into the market. In addition, the developer's pricing is relatively stable, with the first purpose of eliminating and recovering cash flow, and the supply and demand are relatively matched; In addition, the demand for changing houses began to enter the market actively, which played a certain role in the deconstruction of new houses.
Xu Xiaole also pointed out that the housing demand in the first tier cities is relatively sufficient, and the market is expected to repair quickly with the support of credit; The demand for house purchase in the second and third tier cities is relatively insufficient. At the same time, most of the third tier cities have great inventory pressure, and the market is expected to repair slowly. Although the policies of reducing down payment, lowering settlement threshold and issuing house purchase subsidies have been mainly concentrated in second and third tier cities since this year, the current policy has not effectively stimulated the release of housing demand, and the market response to the policy is not enough.
4 may house prices hit the bottom or rise
Since the end of last year, many departments have implemented the spirit of the central economic work conference. On the basis of adhering to the principle of "no speculation in housing", they have steadily and orderly corrected the deviation from the real estate regulation policy. The national housing loan policy has been gradually relaxed, from the acceleration of loan issuance and the reduction of loan interest rate to the increase of provident fund loan amount and the reduction of down payment ratio of provident fund loan, Then to non restricted cities, the proportion of down payment of commercial loans decreased, and local policies to stabilize the real estate market occurred frequently.
For the current market situation, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that from January to February this year, the overall market house prices gradually stabilized from the first and second tier cities, but the market is still at a low ebb and more policies are still needed to maintain stability.
Xu Xiaole also believes that the demand side confidence has not fully recovered from the negative turn of medium and long-term loans of new residents in February. Since March, the epidemic situation in some cities has been repeated, which has also brought uncertainty to the market. It is very important to continue to accurately guide the release of reasonable housing demand in the follow-up.
On March 1, Zhengzhou issued 19 new policies of "stabilizing the real estate market" from five aspects including supporting reasonable housing demand, which attracted extensive attention from the market. Zhengzhou has become the first city in China to systematically support the real estate policy and the first city in China to support the improvement of housing demand in the field of commercial loans, with strong signal significance.
"Zhengzhou's property market has strong support for the new deal, wide coverage and positive market response. The weekly turnover and watch volume in March have returned to the level from May to June last year. Compared with the weekly average in December last year (the high turnover in the second half of last year), the weekly average watch volume in the first two weeks of March increased by 38% and the transaction increase increased by 70%." Xu Xiaole said that as the core city of the Central Plains urban agglomeration, Zhengzhou's policies and market effects can be used for reference to other cities.
Xu Xiaole expects that the further transmission and effectiveness of supportive policies will support the market repair. The two sessions reiterated that "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers". The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document "implement differentiated housing credit policies according to urban policies, reasonably determine the standard of the first housing mortgage loan of new citizens who meet the purchase conditions, and improve the convenience of borrowing and repayment". City City city policy will be introduced in the coming year, and some cities with insufficient market demand may relax the restriction on purchase. If the social security or registered residence restrictions are appropriately relaxed, eligible citizens can get credit support, which is the key to the two or three line urban market restoration.
It is estimated that the trend of housing price relief will continue to increase in February, including the trend of housing price relief. It is expected that the trend of housing price relief will continue to increase due to the spread of housing price relief policies in various regions, but the trend of housing price relief will remain unchanged in March. It is expected that the effect of various rescue policies will begin to show around April, when house prices will also hit the bottom and pick up.
