Recently, we continue to firmly recommend leading companies in various subdivided industries, and we continue to firmly value [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ] [Netease]
\ ] etc
In the past week, the media industry fell 4.28%, ranking 12th among all industries. The media sector has fallen 18.65% since the beginning of the year, ranking 27th among all sectors. The media sector performed relatively well last week, and the publishing industry and cinema industry performed better. The main reason for the good performance of the publishing industry is that the publishing industry is generally not affected by the economy, the teaching materials and auxiliary industry is relatively stable, with good cash flow, high dividend ratio and dividend rate. It has been favored by many hedge funds under the volatile market conditions. On the other hand, the cinema industry performed well last week, slightly exceeding market expectations. Although the epidemic is serious now, it has a great blow to the cinema industry. On the other hand, from a long-term perspective, the proportion of imported films in China’s total box office last year was only about 10%, but this year we expect that the proportion of imported films is expected to increase significantly. In particular, mysterious sea and new Batman will be released in March, and overseas blockbusters are often the key factor that attracts people to the cinema. This year, the cinema sector is very noteworthy. In addition, the core reason for the bottom ranking of the media sector this year is mainly the policy factor. We have seen not only the relevant policies on the takeout platform in the early stage, but also the relevant rumors in the market that the version number may not be issued within the year. In addition, yuancosmos has experienced a rapid decline after the sharp rise in the early stage, as well as the sharp decline of overseas yuancosmos leading companies meta and roblox, Have led to the recent decline in the media sector. On the issue of game version number, we really can’t give a specific timetable, but we don’t think it’s necessary to be too pessimistic against the background that many companies in the game industry are actively rectifying and the whole society is growing steadily.
Last week, we were most concerned about the sharp decline of zhonggai Internet company. Many stocks such as BiliBili, iqiyi, Tencent, Baidu, meituan and Alibaba all fell between 40% and 80%, with a large overall decline. We believe that there are multiple factors in the sharp decline of China concept shares. Policy factors and the game between China and the United States are two very important aspects. More importantly, it is worth thinking about what path China’s Internet giants should take after the whole Internet dividend reaches the bottleneck. Continue to roll in the sinking market, or embrace scientific and technological changes, such as making full efforts in the fields of artificial intelligence, metauniverse, or unmanned driving. I believe the answer is self-evident. Therefore, in the short term, the pain is inevitable, but we are optimistic about the new wave of dividends brought by technological change in the long term. We have also made comments on BiliBili and iqiyi, which have fallen more. Welcome to read. [BiliBili Bili] announced the Q4 financial report and annual performance report of 2021. The company’s revenue in the fourth quarter was 5.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%,; The net profit attributable to the parent company lost 2.095 billion yuan, compared with 844 million yuan in the same period last year; The adjusted net profit loss was 1.652 billion yuan, compared with 676 million yuan in the same period last year. The company’s annual revenue was 193831 million yuan Billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%; The adjusted net profit loss was 5.478 billion yuan, up from 2.56 billion yuan last year. The revenue of 21q4 company increased by 51% at the same time. In terms of business, the revenue of mobile games was 1.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%; The revenue of value-added services was 1.895 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and the number of paying users of large members, live broadcasting services and other value-added services increased; The advertising revenue was 1.588 billion yuan, an increase of 120% at the same time and 36% month on month. Thanks to the improvement of advertising efficiency, the recognition of the company’s online advertising market increased; The revenue of e-commerce and other businesses was 1.003 billion yuan, an increase of 35% at the same time and 37% month on month. In the whole year, the company’s revenue increased by 62%. In terms of business, the revenue of mobile games was 5.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6% year-on-year; The revenue of value-added services was 6.9 billion yuan, an increase of 80% year-on-year; Advertising revenue was 4.5 billion yuan, an increase of 145% at the same time; E-commerce and other revenue was 2.8 billion yuan, the same as 88%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the Mau of station B reached 272 million and the mobile Mau reached 252 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35% and 35% respectively. The dau reached 72.2 million, with a year-on-year increase of 34%; The average daily use time of users is up to 82 minutes; In terms of commercialization, the average monthly paying users reached 24.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 37%, the payment rate increased to 9%, and the monthly living user income increased by 20% year-on-year. In 2021, [iqiyi] had a revenue of 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, a loss of 3 billion yuan, a member income of 4.1 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a monthly average member income of 14.16 yuan in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 14%. The company’s operating losses narrowed significantly, and long video profits ushered in the dawn. On the one hand, the core reason is to control the content cost and improve the expectation of gross profit margin; On the other hand, the proportion of layoffs in the fourth quarter was 20% to 40%, and the organizational structure was further flattened to greatly improve efficiency.
On investment advice, we continue to suggest that the media sector should be arranged in three directions: the first is the leading media company: Tencent holdings [NetEase] [Kwai Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] [ Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) [ Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited(601928) ] [ Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) ]; The second direction is to be optimistic about the leading companies in each segment:
\ ] [ Citic Press Corporation(300788) ] [heart company], etc; Finally, we suggest paying attention to various new theme investment directions, including KOL, MCN, VR / AR, cloud games, 4K Ultra HD, etc.
Risk tips: 1) risk of tightening relevant policies; 2) The risk of intensified industry competition; 3) Risk of product release progress and performance falling short of expectations; 4) Risks of changes in the market operating environment; 5) Systemic risk.
